Can someone please calculate the odds?

Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 741 ★★★


I pulled magik twice in 2 different crystals. They were opened at different times. Cab someone calculate the odds of this?

Comments

  • GreekhitGreekhit Posts: 1,551 ★★★★★
    edited July 2020
    The odds are exactly 1/(number of 4*s in crystal pool), since you probably would have the same reaction over any other two same consecutive pulls (supposing the pulls we’re back to back) 😉
  • AleorAleor Posts: 2,631 ★★★★
    Odds of pulling magik twice is 1/n^2.
    Odds of pulling some champ twice is n/n^2 = 1/n
    n is the number of champs in crystal
  • AleorAleor Posts: 2,631 ★★★★
    That's for two fixed crystals. Please tell if you want to see odds of that event happening on k crystals sequence. It's not hard actually, but will take more symbols and I'm not sure if anybody is really interested in it
  • Sensei_MaatSensei_Maat Posts: 396 ★★★
    i did a featured 5* opening.
    10 crystals.
    2 of those were Beardo who i already have max sig.

    oh well.
    **** happens.
  • Ebony_NawEbony_Naw Posts: 1,545 ★★★★★



    I pulled magik twice in 2 different crystals. They were opened at different times. Cab someone calculate the odds of this?


    You're surprised to have pulled the same champion at two separate times from the 4* crystal? I usually play along with these, but can you pass me the water with that reach of yours?
  • Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 741 ★★★

    DNA3000 said:

    I pulled magik twice in 2 different crystals. They were opened at different times. Cab someone calculate the odds of this?

    Actually, no: no one can.

    The problem here is selection bias. Suppose I roll five six-sided dice and they all come up sixes. What are the odds of that happening? It actually depends. Suppose I said that I rolled those dice over and over again *until* they came up all sixes. What are the odds of *that* happening? You'd need to know how many times I rolled over and over to know what the odds of that happening were overall. Of course, the odds of those dice coming up all sixes *on that specific roll* are calculable: they are one in 7776. But the odds that I would see this eventually in this circumstance is basically 100% if I do it long enough. If you don't know how long I did this, you can't say how improbable the eventual roll was.

    You pulled Magik twice in a row. It is possible to calculate the odds of this happening in two consecutive crystal openings (other people have done that in the thread already). But what are the odds that you would have seen something like this today, or this week, or this month? That would depend on how many crystals you've opened.

    The problem is you were not aiming to pull Magik twice. You just opened crystals and your brain happened to notice this coincidence at this moment in time. But the odds of *something* catching your attention out of all the crystals you open start to approach 100% if you open enough crystals.

    This is something they teach people when it comes to statistical analysis. You have to be extremely careful about calculating probabilities after the fact. The way I explain this to people is the odds of something happening that has already happened is 100%, because it happened.
    College professor in the house!
    Didn’t i call you a burnt potato when you said it’s extremely hard to get to 150 combo with aegon?
  • Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 741 ★★★


    Actually, no: no one can.

    The problem here is selection bias. Suppose I roll five six-sided dice and they all come up sixes. What are the odds of that happening? It actually depends. Suppose I said that I rolled those dice over and over again *until* they came up all sixes. What are the odds of *that* happening? You'd need to know how many times I rolled over and over to know what the odds of that happening were overall. Of course, the odds of those dice coming up all sixes *on that specific roll* are calculable: they are one in 7776. But the odds that I would see this eventually in this circumstance is basically 100% if I do it long enough. If you don't know how long I did this, you can't say how improbable the eventual roll was.

    You pulled Magik twice in a row. It is possible to calculate the odds of this happening in two consecutive crystal openings (other people have done that in the thread already). But what are the odds that you would have seen something like this today, or this week, or this month? That would depend on how many crystals you've opened.

    The problem is you were not aiming to pull Magik twice. You just opened crystals and your brain happened to notice this coincidence at this moment in time. But the odds of *something* catching your attention out of all the crystals you open start to approach 100% if you open enough crystals.

    This is something they teach people when it comes to statistical analysis. You have to be extremely careful about calculating probabilities after the fact. The way I explain this to people is the odds of something happening that has already happened is 100%, because it happened.

  • Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 741 ★★★
    I just wrote all that
  • Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 741 ★★★
    Yup, there are
  • Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 741 ★★★

    Wait a second....
    @Deadlygamer98 😑

    Yes?
  • Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 741 ★★★
    No tell me, did i abuse you in your past life?
  • ReferenceReference Posts: 1,858 ★★★★
    Recently I pulled two 5* carnage at the same time, both normal 5* crystal. I felt pretty odd too.

    Few months before I open battlechips and got three 3* punisher at the same time. So odd.

    Last week I just have enough shards to pull my 11th 6* crystal. Before that I told myself “pls give me something good, no more iron fist”......and then the pull stop at Iron Fist. Odd.
  • Deadlygamer98Deadlygamer98 Posts: 741 ★★★

    No tell me, did i abuse you in your past life?

    No, I was just wondering how you reposted that stuff.
    Reposted what stuff?
  • Obsidiman_JonesObsidiman_Jones Posts: 244
    No one is going to mention those five 6s you rolled gave you a Yahtzee...
  • Elad17Elad17 Posts: 331 ★★
    I say the odds are 100% you pulled 2 Magiks
  • Sw0rdMasterSw0rdMaster Posts: 860 ★★★



    I pulled magik twice in 2 different crystals. They were opened at different times. Cab someone calculate the odds of this?

    That's how champs get duped
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