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Are those featured 5* crystals rigged in favor of older champs? Data included.

ON12355ON12355 Posts: 144 ★★
Hello there,
so previous featured 5* crystal, I had a feeling like all those newer featured champs I'm actually buying it for somehow eluded me. So when current 5*Featured hero crystal (and look at the menu-it is one good looking crystal!) was released, just for fun, I collected data. And I know I may be just one small sample of the majority, but here is what I found out:

This game is now like 6 years old. Strictly statistically speaking, there is 24 champs in the crystal-if you aiming for specific champ, having 24 crystals (24 tries) is a good chance to get him. I had 26 featured 5* crystals.
As the pool of this crystal was set this time, chance to get champ released between 2018-2020 (newer champ) should be exactly 50:50 with chance to get champ released between 2015-2017 (older champ). And yet:



Not only the chances are nowhere near to what one would expect, it actually scales down almost perfectly with the years of release. Looks like you are much less probably to pull newer champs-those actual featured champs you buy this thing for in the fisrt place!
Last featured 5* crystal, it could have been just a feeling. But now, based on data I've collected, it is very hard for me to believe those crystals actually aren't rigged in favor of pulling older champs. I believe in math much more than in honesty and especially in this game. And this math seems to be rigged.
If that's the case, shame on you, Kabam... I guess I'm done with featured crystals, you know, fool me once and so on...

Comments

  • ON12355ON12355 Posts: 144 ★★
    There is a typo in first line on screenshot - of course champs in pool is 24 and chance to pull one specific is therefore is 4,17%. The rest of calculations is correct.
  • ON12355ON12355 Posts: 144 ★★

    I bought 1 featured crystal. Got one 2020 champ. rIgGeD iN fAvOuR oF nEw cHaMp?

    You know, I'm very much aware that sample size matters. But I have no access to those data so I work with what I have. And you trying to undermine it with even smaller and negligible sample of 1 is kinda...well you are trying to make a point but disproving it at the same time...
  • psiw_o_lliwpsiw_o_lliw Posts: 44
    ON12355 said:

    I bought 1 featured crystal. Got one 2020 champ. rIgGeD iN fAvOuR oF nEw cHaMp?

    You know, I'm very much aware that sample size matters. But I have no access to those data so I work with what I have. And you trying to undermine it with even smaller and negligible sample of 1 is kinda...well you are trying to make a point but disproving it at the same time...
    No no no, young padawan, I'm making a joke.
  • ON12355ON12355 Posts: 144 ★★
    Snurris said:

    Really amazing work you have put into this and interesting results.
    You have got down on paper what I guess almost everyone who opens crystals in this game thinks and feels, me included.
    BUT the problem is there is no way to prove it. 26 crystals is a lot but not even remotely enough to be called proof. For that we need to open at least 1000 featured and monitor every opening, then we can begin to call it proof.
    Kabam always claim RNG... do I trust them?, no. But can I prove them wrong?, also no.
    So at the end of the day its still up to me. Keep playing and live with that feeling or stop playing the game.

    I agree with almost everything you said and to be clear, I also do think 26 crystals (unfortunatelly) is not enough to talk about some REAL proof, but for the limited time the featured crystal is available, one can hardly hoard 1000 crystals (which also seems so convenient for Kabam) so I just presented what I feel from what I'm experiencing in the game. I can't say it's some 100% proof or something, but that's by design. We will never get that data so as I said above, I work with what I have.
    This is just my insight on the matter with small recommendation-don't buy them, they don't seem fair to me.
    Thanks for your comment.
  • MauledMauled Posts: 3,956 Guardian
    edited October 2020
    I opened about 25 this featured and I got a very even spread to be honest. I don’t really think it’s worth their time to decide that you’ve got an extra 2% to get a cyclops or ultron.

    Year data aside, if the featured keep the same quality of champion you’ve got better odds of pulling a good champ than if you opt for basics.
  • ON12355ON12355 Posts: 144 ★★
    Mauled said:

    I don’t really think it’s worth their time to decide that you’ve got an extra 2% to get a cyclops or ultron..

    I think you are seriously underestimating functional wide business models :smile: Those extra % can make a big diff in total featured crystals bought all over the game considering it's without a doubt no one is actually aiming for Cyclops by featured crystal. So if you think it would not be worth of a time spent to literally just dial up/down chances a little bit (which wouldn't actually take any time at all tbh), think again :smile:

    In other words-if you have every single champ in the game, would you bother to buy featured crystal? ...and what is the better chance-already having a champ that is in the game for 5 years or the one that is in the game for 5 months? :wink:

    But hey, all about this not being conclusive proof enough was already said, I'm aware of that. Thanks anyway!

  • psiw_o_lliwpsiw_o_lliw Posts: 44
    ON12355 said:

    ON12355 said:

    I bought 1 featured crystal. Got one 2020 champ. rIgGeD iN fAvOuR oF nEw cHaMp?

    You know, I'm very much aware that sample size matters. But I have no access to those data so I work with what I have. And you trying to undermine it with even smaller and negligible sample of 1 is kinda...well you are trying to make a point but disproving it at the same time...
    No no no, young padawan, I'm making a joke.
    Okay, next time make it funnier so one can tell :wink:
    If alternating text also can't convey that it's a joke, I don't know what will..../s maybe?
  • TheBair123TheBair123 Posts: 5,344 ★★★★★
    This might just be a fluke in RNG. I think the only way to confirm this is to open 26 more featureds
  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Posts: 7,114 ★★★★★
    I didn’t keep stats but I pulled every FC except Tigra in this pool, and Sorcerer Supreme twice. And I prolly opened 20 crystals at most.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    ON12355 said:

    I bought 1 featured crystal. Got one 2020 champ. rIgGeD iN fAvOuR oF nEw cHaMp?

    You know, I'm very much aware that sample size matters. But I have no access to those data so I work with what I have. And you trying to undermine it with even smaller and negligible sample of 1 is kinda...well you are trying to make a point but disproving it at the same time...
    you are correct, sample size matters and your sample size is just as bad as his, proving his point, not yours.
  • ON12355ON12355 Posts: 144 ★★
    Kerneas said:

    Your sample is so small, that from statistical point if view it is worthless. There are quite literally millions of opened crystals that all work on the same rng. Sample of 26 is super tiny in comparison.

    You said you know how the sample size matters, meaning that you must also be aware, that in order to achieve "perfect rng pulls", you would have to open infinite amount of crystals. And also the more you open, the more accurate results you get.

    Sure, you have a point. But there is that-26 is super tiny sample, even 100 is super tiny sample, we can never have accurate sample for this, which is where my doubt's are coming from, cause this is about one way blind trust that Kabam is telling the true, which they most certainly don't have to do, let's not be naive :smile: And my personal experience in the game so far makes me being a little bit more on the "I have my doubts" side of things.

    This was not meant to be some earth-shaking revelation, just my two cents on the matter and my personal feeling about it I wanted to share. Although we will never be able to test the appropriate sample to have reliable results, having this (however small-scale) results over and over makes me think things you know...There is this "innocent until proven guilty" of course, but it's easy to claim innocent when you never actually have to show your cards and therefore can't be proven guilty, even if you were, and that's too shady business to be in for me, that's all I'm saying.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    ON12355 said:

    Kerneas said:

    Your sample is so small, that from statistical point if view it is worthless. There are quite literally millions of opened crystals that all work on the same rng. Sample of 26 is super tiny in comparison.

    You said you know how the sample size matters, meaning that you must also be aware, that in order to achieve "perfect rng pulls", you would have to open infinite amount of crystals. And also the more you open, the more accurate results you get.

    Sure, you have a point. But there is that-26 is super tiny sample, even 100 is super tiny sample, we can never have accurate sample for this, which is where my doubt's are coming from, cause this is about one way blind trust that Kabam is telling the true, which they most certainly don't have to do, let's not be naive :smile: And my personal experience in the game so far makes me being a little bit more on the "I have my doubts" side of things.

    This was not meant to be some earth-shaking revelation, just my two cents on the matter and my personal feeling about it I wanted to share. Although we will never be able to test the appropriate sample to have reliable results, having this (however small-scale) results over and over makes me think things you know...There is this "innocent until proven guilty" of course, but it's easy to claim innocent when you never actually have to show your cards and therefore can't be proven guilty, even if you were, and that's too shady business to be in for me, that's all I'm saying.
    A 1000+ RANDOM crystal sample size can get you to within +/- 3 with a 95% confidence.


    Even doing this small sample over and over will not tell you anything.

    Innocent until proven guilty is a legal phrase, it does not work outside of the government criminal justice system.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,733 ★★★★★
    ON12355 said:

    Hello there,
    so previous featured 5* crystal, I had a feeling like all those newer featured champs I'm actually buying it for somehow eluded me. So when current 5*Featured hero crystal (and look at the menu-it is one good looking crystal!) was released, just for fun, I collected data. And I know I may be just one small sample of the majority, but here is what I found out:

    This game is now like 6 years old. Strictly statistically speaking, there is 24 champs in the crystal-if you aiming for specific champ, having 24 crystals (24 tries) is a good chance to get him. I had 26 featured 5* crystals.
    As the pool of this crystal was set this time, chance to get champ released between 2018-2020 (newer champ) should be exactly 50:50 with chance to get champ released between 2015-2017 (older champ). And yet:



    Not only the chances are nowhere near to what one would expect, it actually scales down almost perfectly with the years of release. Looks like you are much less probably to pull newer champs-those actual featured champs you buy this thing for in the fisrt place!
    Last featured 5* crystal, it could have been just a feeling. But now, based on data I've collected, it is very hard for me to believe those crystals actually aren't rigged in favor of pulling older champs. I believe in math much more than in honesty and especially in this game. And this math seems to be rigged.
    If that's the case, shame on you, Kabam... I guess I'm done with featured crystals, you know, fool me once and so on...

    So...... How do we know you didn't rig these results? I don't see any video evidence to back these numbers up. How do we actually know these results are legit? Works both ways doesn't it..
  • Nameless_IWNameless_IW Posts: 977 ★★★★
    Lol. We all like to think they are rigged when we dont the champs we all want. I pulled red guardian in the current featured so im happy
  • The_Sentry06The_Sentry06 Posts: 7,771 ★★★★★
    I never seem to even see the FC in the reel when I opened my featureds :(
    I have opened 3 featureds.
  • danielmathdanielmath Posts: 4,028 ★★★★★
    Saying “data included” when you have basically no data is pretty disingenuous.
  • Hey there, as we've mentioned before, the chances of getting a particular Champion from a Crystals are the exact same as the chances of getting any other Champion in that Crystal, unless stated otherwise. Hope that helps clear things up!
This discussion has been closed.