Two diff days. Two diff duplicate pulls from mutant / skill crystal. Anyone else ?

Like many , I am hunting for 5* Fury with the side chance of other wins in the mutant/skill dual crystal.

My last four pulls were two done on each of the last two mutant/skill days. My pulls were as follows:

Rogue two times, in the same day , hours apart (four days ago)

Today: Psylocke two times , hours apart, just like the Rogue pulls.

Adding to the bizarreness.... Earlier today on my sons account..... I had pulled two PHC’s , both were guillotine.

The odds of this, if these actually do have “the same” odds,to drop each champ, are so incredibly low. I can’t see that being true. But I suppose it’s possible.

More likely , it seems like certain champs are weighted more than others. Has anyone else had this same experience ?

Comments

ChuckD05

Thicco_Mode

not really lol

DNA3000

The odds of this, if these actually do have “the same” odds,to drop each champ, are so incredibly low. I can’t see that being true. But I suppose it’s possible. ?

Just out of curiosity, you say you believe the odds of this happening are incredibly low. How low do you think this is? I'm not asking you to figure out what it is. I'm asking what you thought it was when you wrote that it was incredibly low. At that moment, how low was "incredibly low?"

Lmao

The odds of this, if these actually do have “the same” odds,to drop each champ, are so incredibly low. I can’t see that being true. But I suppose it’s possible. ?
Just out of curiosity, you say you believe the odds of this happening are incredibly low. How low do you think this is? I'm not asking you to figure out what it is. I'm asking what you thought it was when you wrote that it was incredibly low. At that moment, how low was "incredibly low?"

Well, if we assume that the event of pulling each champ is independent and that there are 150 champs in the game, I'd consider that the op could be referring to (1/150)^6?

-sixate-

It took me over 40 mutant/skill to finally grt Fury. I pulled every garbage champ over and over before finally getting him. I know guys 50+ crystals in going after Ægon and still nothing. Those crystals drop rates for the top champs are insanely low.

LeoZed

not really lol

Ohhh man I wanted that AA so badly

ChuckD05

The odds of this, if these actually do have “the same” odds,to drop each champ, are so incredibly low. I can’t see that being true. But I suppose it’s possible. ?
Just out of curiosity, you say you believe the odds of this happening are incredibly low. How low do you think this is? I'm not asking you to figure out what it is. I'm asking what you thought it was when you wrote that it was incredibly low. At that moment, how low was "incredibly low?"

Yes very low. Rogue is 1 champ out of 51 in the pool. To pull her back to hack the odds extremely low.

1/51*1 multiplied by 1/51 is = 1/2601.

So I did someting that was 1/2601 the first time

Then the very next day did it again. Can’t argue with math.

Source:

Use the specific multiplication rule formula. Just multiply the probability of the first event by the second. For example, if the probability of event A is 2/9 and the probability of event B is 3/9 then the probability of both events happening at the same time is (2/9)*(3/9) = 6/81 = 2/27.Sep 14, 2009

ChuckD05

So the odds of doing what I did two days in a row is

1 in 6,765,201 !

I can be wrong but i don’t think I am. BUT If the champs are weighted heavier than others this drops way down.

If we have any mathematicians in here please confirm or correct me if you don’t mind.

ChuckD05

Ok here we go. Now I am about to share something that truly warrants Kabams attention ...

I told a line buddy and watch what he shared

Explain this ???????

ChuckD05

Pure speculation ... something on your account is pushing the odds in a direction to cause X to Happen. If this gets bugged; perhaps a very small increase in probability gets multiplied by an unknown amount.

Mitriax

someone needs to retake pre-calculus...

ChuckD05

someone needs to retake pre-calculus...

Well then what are the odds ?

MarshMarlo

1/51*1 multiplied by 1/51 is = 1/2601.

This is not the best way to calculate pulling the same champ on 2 cystals. I cant. The math. Is. Horrible.

ChuckD05

someone needs to retake pre-calculus...

And did you see the screenshot of three consecutive terrax pulls ? That was one person . That’s not odd ? Bugged ?

Aleor

Ok here we go. Now I am about to share something that truly warrants Kabams attention ...

I told a line buddy and watch what he shared

Explain this ???????

Actually you're speaking about just getting same champ from two crystals. So if there are 50 champs in a crystal, the odds are 50/50^2 = 2%. The trick is you get any champ first and only need to get him in next crystal. If you consider a sequence of crystals, the longer it is, the more likely you are to have some champ appearing in neighbor crystals.
Getting same champ 3 from 3 crystals times would be 50/50^3 = 0.04%.

Personally I also sometimes feel that kabam rng is rigged, but unfortunately we don't have any statistics on crystal pulls. Don't think they will ever share it

Niceeee

Ok here we go. Now I am about to share something that truly warrants Kabams attention ...

I told a line buddy and watch what he shared

Explain this ???????

RNG

Aleor

someone needs to retake pre-calculus...

I don't think combinatorics or probabilities are in pre-calculus, is it? You don't need any for calculus, I belive

ChuckD05

I feel better knowing I am not alone, but to get two or even 3 of the same champ in a row seems broken. Mine were hours apart on two different days and the other example was b2b2b. Just seems extremely bizarre

ChuckD05

Ok here we go. Now I am about to share something that truly warrants Kabams attention ...

I told a line buddy and watch what he shared

Explain this ???????
Actually you're speaking about just getting same champ from two crystals. So if there are 50 champs in a crystal, the odds are 50/50^2 = 2%. The trick is you get any champ first and only need to get him in next crystal. If you consider a sequence of crystals, the longer it is, the more likely you are to have some champ appearing in neighbor crystals.
Getting same champ 3 from 3 crystals times would be 50/50^3 = 0.04%.

Personally I also sometimes feel that kabam rng is rigged, but unfortunately we don't have any statistics on crystal pulls. Don't think they will ever share it

Thank you. That does make sense. Been a while !

DNA3000

The odds of this, if these actually do have “the same” odds,to drop each champ, are so incredibly low. I can’t see that being true. But I suppose it’s possible. ?
Just out of curiosity, you say you believe the odds of this happening are incredibly low. How low do you think this is? I'm not asking you to figure out what it is. I'm asking what you thought it was when you wrote that it was incredibly low. At that moment, how low was "incredibly low?"

Yes very low. Rogue is 1 champ out of 51 in the pool. To pull her back to hack the odds extremely low.

1/51*1 multiplied by 1/51 is = 1/2601.

So I did someting that was 1/2601 the first time

Then the very next day did it again. Can’t argue with math.

Source:

Use the specific multiplication rule formula. Just multiply the probability of the first event by the second. For example, if the probability of event A is 2/9 and the probability of event B is 3/9 then the probability of both events happening at the same time is (2/9)*(3/9) = 6/81 = 2/27.Sep 14, 2009

The odds of pulling one specific champion twice in a row is in fact the product of the odds of doing so once. However, that's not the odds of you doing what you did.

You say you pulled Rogue twice in a row, and then later Psylocke twice in a row. Notice that it didn't matter which champ was duplicated, you considered it noteworthy whether it was Rogue or Psylocke. You would have considered it noteworthy no matter which champion it was. So the odds of seeing what you saw isn't one in 2601, its actually one in 51. The first champ could have been anything, the second one just had to match it.

So in fact the odds of pulling all four as two duplicates is not one in 6.8 million, like you're thinking, it is actually closer to one in 2601 for all four. Which is actually not incredibly rare.

But that's not all. You're reporting only four pulls. You aren't reporting all the pulls for which this did not happen. This creates another statistical problem. The odds of rolling sixes twice in a row is one in 36, but the odds of rolling the same number twice in a row is just one in six. But on top of that, if I roll over and over again day after day, the odds of getting the same number twice in a row at some point starts to become almost certain. So what's missing from this calculation is how many pairs of dual crystals you've opened total, because you should really be calculating the odds of pulling a pair twice out of all the crystals you open. Since the odds of pulling a pair in one day is one in 51, the odds of pulling two pairs in two consecutive days is one in 2601. But the odds of pulling two pairs in *three* days, with just one day not opening a pair. is about one in 884. The odds of pulling two pairs in four days, with two days is about one in 451. Not common, but not rare either. And the more days it doesn't happen, the more reasonable it is for it to have happened twice.

The math: if you want to calculate the odds of seeing pairs twice in three attempts, the odds are the odds of seeing the pair which is 1/51 x 1/51 (technically it is 1/51 x 1/51 x 50/51 which is the odds for *exactly* two pairs to show up, the 50/51 is the odds for the third one to not be a dup) multiplied by the number of ways this can happen. There are three ways: dup dup no, dup no dup, no dup dup. In general this is the combinations calculation: n!/(k!(n-k)!). This is 3 for two out of three, this is 6 for two out of four, etc.

Last thing: if something is only going to happen one time in five hundred, its going to happen to thousands of players of the game. Every single one of them will think something is wrong because they saw an unlikely event. But if say one hundred people out of one hundred thousand see a one in a thousand event, you'd say that was normal. But each of the one hundred would say it wasn't. This is another thing to account for when attempting to determine how likely or unlikely something is.

Given the circumstances, what you saw was unusual, but not astronomically unlikely. It is the kind of thing I would expect a lot of players to see. We just hear from them, and not the other people that it doesn't happen to. And eventually, I would expect a sizeable number of players to see this double dup occurrence, provided enough players continue to open dual class crystals. My guess is that something between dozens and hundreds of players have likely seen it twice, and eventually that number will be thousands.

ChuckD05

Guys I pulled two science mystic crystals today and got MODOK TWICE AGAIN !!!!!!!!

How is this possible.

Rogue rogue
Psylocke psylocke
Modok modok

Three days in a row.

I’m sorry this HAS TO HE A BUG

And to make matters more bizarre a teammate got him from a featured between my two pulls

My first one

ChuckD05

Second one

How can this be normal???

ChuckD05

The odds of this, if these actually do have “the same” odds,to drop each champ, are so incredibly low. I can’t see that being true. But I suppose it’s possible. ?
Just out of curiosity, you say you believe the odds of this happening are incredibly low. How low do you think this is? I'm not asking you to figure out what it is. I'm asking what you thought it was when you wrote that it was incredibly low. At that moment, how low was "incredibly low?"

Yes very low. Rogue is 1 champ out of 51 in the pool. To pull her back to hack the odds extremely low.

1/51*1 multiplied by 1/51 is = 1/2601.

So I did someting that was 1/2601 the first time

Then the very next day did it again. Can’t argue with math.

Source:

Use the specific multiplication rule formula. Just multiply the probability of the first event by the second. For example, if the probability of event A is 2/9 and the probability of event B is 3/9 then the probability of both events happening at the same time is (2/9)*(3/9) = 6/81 = 2/27.Sep 14, 2009
The odds of pulling one specific champion twice in a row is in fact the product of the odds of doing so once. However, that's not the odds of you doing what you did.

You say you pulled Rogue twice in a row, and then later Psylocke twice in a row. Notice that it didn't matter which champ was duplicated, you considered it noteworthy whether it was Rogue or Psylocke. You would have considered it noteworthy no matter which champion it was. So the odds of seeing what you saw isn't one in 2601, its actually one in 51. The first champ could have been anything, the second one just had to match it.

So in fact the odds of pulling all four as two duplicates is not one in 6.8 million, like you're thinking, it is actually closer to one in 2601 for all four. Which is actually not incredibly rare.

But that's not all. You're reporting only four pulls. You aren't reporting all the pulls for which this did not happen. This creates another statistical problem. The odds of rolling sixes twice in a row is one in 36, but the odds of rolling the same number twice in a row is just one in six. But on top of that, if I roll over and over again day after day, the odds of getting the same number twice in a row at some point starts to become almost certain. So what's missing from this calculation is how many pairs of dual crystals you've opened total, because you should really be calculating the odds of pulling a pair twice out of all the crystals you open. Since the odds of pulling a pair in one day is one in 51, the odds of pulling two pairs in two consecutive days is one in 2601. But the odds of pulling two pairs in *three* days, with just one day not opening a pair. is about one in 884. The odds of pulling two pairs in four days, with two days is about one in 451. Not common, but not rare either. And the more days it doesn't happen, the more reasonable it is for it to have happened twice.

The math: if you want to calculate the odds of seeing pairs twice in three attempts, the odds are the odds of seeing the pair which is 1/51 x 1/51 (technically it is 1/51 x 1/51 x 50/51 which is the odds for *exactly* two pairs to show up, the 50/51 is the odds for the third one to not be a dup) multiplied by the number of ways this can happen. There are three ways: dup dup no, dup no dup, no dup dup. In general this is the combinations calculation: n!/(k!(n-k)!). This is 3 for two out of three, this is 6 for two out of four, etc.

Last thing: if something is only going to happen one time in five hundred, its going to happen to thousands of players of the game. Every single one of them will think something is wrong because they saw an unlikely event. But if say one hundred people out of one hundred thousand see a one in a thousand event, you'd say that was normal. But each of the one hundred would say it wasn't. This is another thing to account for when attempting to determine how likely or unlikely something is.

Given the circumstances, what you saw was unusual, but not astronomically unlikely. It is the kind of thing I would expect a lot of players to see. We just hear from them, and not the other people that it doesn't happen to. And eventually, I would expect a sizeable number of players to see this double dup occurrence, provided enough players continue to open dual class crystals. My guess is that something between dozens and hundreds of players have likely seen it twice, and eventually that number will be thousands.

Thank you for your post

These were my last 6 pulls. In total. No other done in between. I have only pulled dual crystals and today it just happened again. See above.

Sarvanga1_

Guys I pulled two science mystic crystals today and got MODOK TWICE AGAIN !!!!!!!!

How is this possible.

Rogue rogue
Psylocke psylocke
Modok modok

Three days in a row.

I’m sorry this HAS TO HE A BUG

And to make matters more bizarre a teammate got him from a featured between my two pulls

My first one

That's weird cause yesterday I too opened back to back sabertooth.
Who ever gets an aegon,fury or omega at this time would be pretty lucky.🤣

Negative_100

ChuckD05

Ok now this is getting more and more likely to be a "bug" OR odds are for some reason adjusted to make something much more likely to occur.

Gwenpool back to back isnt bad though but still bizarre!

ChuckD05

Guys I pulled two science mystic crystals today and got MODOK TWICE AGAIN !!!!!!!!

How is this possible.

Rogue rogue
Psylocke psylocke
Modok modok

Three days in a row.

I’m sorry this HAS TO HE A BUG

And to make matters more bizarre a teammate got him from a featured between my two pulls

My first one

That's weird cause yesterday I too opened back to back sabertooth.
Who ever gets an aegon,fury or omega at this time would be pretty lucky.🤣

are you iOS?

FRITO_Man

Just pulled a Doc Ock dupe so I'll probably stop lol

Sarvanga1_

Guys I pulled two science mystic crystals today and got MODOK TWICE AGAIN !!!!!!!!

How is this possible.

Rogue rogue
Psylocke psylocke
Modok modok

Three days in a row.

I’m sorry this HAS TO HE A BUG

And to make matters more bizarre a teammate got him from a featured between my two pulls

My first one

That's weird cause yesterday I too opened back to back sabertooth.
Who ever gets an aegon,fury or omega at this time would be pretty lucky.🤣
are you iOS?

No android