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Nexus Cavalier crystal odds (for each rarity)
DNA3000
Member, Guardian Guardian › Posts: 21,040 Guardian
Based on what I've seen, the Nexus Cavalier randomly generates each pull independently (but I believe still does not generate duplicates). This means each "slot" has an independent chance to be 3*, 4*, 5* or 6*. So while the odds of pulling a 6* champ are 1.5%, the odds of at least one pull being a 6* are higher. Suppose we assume it is a given that a player will always select the highest rarity champ that appears (this isn't necessarily always true, but probably almost always true). In that case, what are the odds that a player will pull a 3*, 4*, 5*, or 6* champ from this crystal?
Short answer (rounded to 0.1%):
4.4% 6*
42.4% 5*
44.0% 4*
9.1% 3*
(Note: adds to 99.9% due to small round offs)
The math:
Odds of pulling 6* champ: 1.5%. Odds of not pulling a 6* champ in three tries: (1-0.015) ^ 3 = 0.956. Odds of pulling at least one 6* champ: 1 - 0.956 = 0.044 = 4.4%.
Odds of pulling a 5* or 6* champ: 17.5% + 1.5% = 19%. Odds of not pulling a 5* or 6* champ: (1 - 0.19)^3 ~ 0.5314. Odds of pulling at least one 5* or 6* champ: 1-0.5314 ~ 0.4686. Odds of pulling at least one 5* but not 6*: 0.4686-0.044 ~= 0.424 = 42.4%
Odds of pulling 3* champ: 45%. Odds of pulling only 3* champs: 0.45^3 = 0.091 = 9.1%.
Odds of pulling at least one 4* champ but no higher: 100% - 9.1% - 4.4% - 42.4% = 44.1% (round off causes this to be 0.1% higher than the directly calculated value above).
So the odds of pulling a 6* champ are almost three times higher, the odds of pulling a 5* champ are about 2.5x better, the odds of pulling a 4* are similar, and the odds of being stuck with a 3* champ are about 80% lower on a relative basis.
Bonus question: what are the odds of getting at least one 6* if you buy all seven Nexus Cavs: about 27.2%.
Odds of striking out with all 21 options of all seven Nexus crystals: (1-0.015)^21 = 0.728. Odds of getting at least one 6*: 1-0.728 = 0.272.
Short answer (rounded to 0.1%):
4.4% 6*
42.4% 5*
44.0% 4*
9.1% 3*
(Note: adds to 99.9% due to small round offs)
The math:
Odds of pulling 6* champ: 1.5%. Odds of not pulling a 6* champ in three tries: (1-0.015) ^ 3 = 0.956. Odds of pulling at least one 6* champ: 1 - 0.956 = 0.044 = 4.4%.
Odds of pulling a 5* or 6* champ: 17.5% + 1.5% = 19%. Odds of not pulling a 5* or 6* champ: (1 - 0.19)^3 ~ 0.5314. Odds of pulling at least one 5* or 6* champ: 1-0.5314 ~ 0.4686. Odds of pulling at least one 5* but not 6*: 0.4686-0.044 ~= 0.424 = 42.4%
Odds of pulling 3* champ: 45%. Odds of pulling only 3* champs: 0.45^3 = 0.091 = 9.1%.
Odds of pulling at least one 4* champ but no higher: 100% - 9.1% - 4.4% - 42.4% = 44.1% (round off causes this to be 0.1% higher than the directly calculated value above).
So the odds of pulling a 6* champ are almost three times higher, the odds of pulling a 5* champ are about 2.5x better, the odds of pulling a 4* are similar, and the odds of being stuck with a 3* champ are about 80% lower on a relative basis.
Bonus question: what are the odds of getting at least one 6* if you buy all seven Nexus Cavs: about 27.2%.
Odds of striking out with all 21 options of all seven Nexus crystals: (1-0.015)^21 = 0.728. Odds of getting at least one 6*: 1-0.728 = 0.272.
15
Comments
Me - 1
Kabam - 76478210
But who's keeping count
I assume it will happen though since the community seems to be pretty excited about them and I’m sure Kabam is raking in the dough.
At least I know I'm not getting shafted buying shoes