**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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What does a 6* champion cost (roughly)?
With the updates to the Cavalier crystal drop odds, I decided to take a look at how the value of the Cavalier crystals have improved. Since they drop a variety of things that have different value to different people, there's no way to compare them precisely and unambiguously. So I decided to look at one specific way to value them that I think is relevant to most people capable of purchasing Cavalier crystals: how much value do they contain if the only thing you're interested in is 6* champs. I'm not saying 5* champs have no value, but in terms of comparing like to like value I'm going to compare their value in terms of 6* champions.
To do this, I will make two assumptions. The first one is that on average, a 5* champion pull is worth 275 6* shards, in other words on average a 5* champ is worth a non-max dup. For these purposes, that seems to be a reasonable estimate. And the second is that all lower drops are small enough to be safely ignored when it comes to comparing the equivalent value for 6* champs. In that case, what I get is:
Original Regular Cav: ~ 0.013 6* per crystal.
Original Featured Cav: ~ 0.0198 6* per crystal.
Given a cost of 200 units per regular (175 with the Thronebreaker discount) and 300 units per Featured, this means the average cost of acquiring a 6* champion is:
Original Regular Cav: 15355 units
Original Featured Cav: 15142 units
Thronebreaker Regular: 13436 units
How does this compare to the new crystals?
New Regular Cav: 5814 units
New Featured Cav: 5814 units
Thronebreaker Regular: 5087 units
The crystals got about 2.6 times more valuable overall. That's not bad. The implication is that 6* champs are, very roughly, worth about 5k to 6k units when purchased this way. How do the Cavalier crystals compare to other ways to purchase 6* champions? I can think of two other significant ways to do it. One way is to buy the daily Cavalier special. When those get updated they will have the same intrinsic value as regular Cav crystals but for $5 USD rather that 175/200 units. In terms of the normal conversion rate from dollars to units, that's a bit cheaper if you're buying units of course, units can be earned for free through game play. But if we assume for comparison purposes that $5 = 155 units (the exchange rate if you buy Odins) and we only focus on the 6* drop possibility (the offer contains other things of varying relative value) then:
Daily Cav special: 4506 units per 6* (on average).
Spending is a little bit cheaper, which is to be expected. But there's one more way to "buy" 6* champs: the Cavalier difficulty bundle. For 2975 units you get 5000 6* shards, 15k 5* shards, and 5 Cav crystals, plus a bunch more. If we convert all of that into 6* equivalents (and again ignore everything else) we get:
Cavalier Difficulty Bundle: 4906 units per 6* (on average).
But that's today. With the updated Cavalier odds, that becomes:
Cavalier Difficulty Bundle (updated): 4171 units per 6* (on average).
The value gets better because there are five Cavalier crystals in that bundle. Interestingly, the best way to get 6* champions, or at least the best value option of all of these, is the Cav bundle, and that doesn't even count anything else in that bundle.
When the Cavalier difficulty bundle first came out, many wondered if it was a mistake, or if it was temporary and would go away. The deal seemed too good to be true for some observers. But instead it seems the reverse is true: the Cav difficulty bundle was a sign that for Cavalier and higher players Kabam was starting to reduce the relative value of 6* champs, or to put it another way it was loosening their grip on them and believes a higher rate of them flowing into the game is now appropriate for those players, which is also consistent with their statements about Thronebreaker players being the next step up in focus on 6* champions. I suspect it is not a coincidence that once the odds changes are in place Regular Cav crystals bought with units, Featured Cav crystals bought with units, and regular Cav crystals bought in the unit store daily offers will all land in the same rough ballpark of value as the Cavalier difficulty bundle. The Cav bundle was signalling the new normal.
Also, and I think this would surprise some players, because it doesn't seem like it at a glance, but if you're buying Cavalier crystals and not buying the Cav completion bundle, even if you literally throw all the boosts and potions away, you might be doing it wrong. I think people look at that bundle and mentally estimate that bundle as about six thousand units per 6*. It is actually much less than that, even ignoring all of the potions and boost, and just correctly accounting for the value of the 15k 5* shards and the Cavalier crystals just in terms of their ability to generate 6* champions.
To summarize, if you're a Cav player both types of Cav crystals are costing you about 5800 units per 6*. If you are TB, its about 5100 units for the regular Cav. The Daily Cav (cash) offer is about the equivalent of 4500 units per 6*, and the Cav difficulty bundle is about 4200 units per 6*. That's the relative value of those options, assuming the only thing you count is the ability to generate 6* champions.
To do this, I will make two assumptions. The first one is that on average, a 5* champion pull is worth 275 6* shards, in other words on average a 5* champ is worth a non-max dup. For these purposes, that seems to be a reasonable estimate. And the second is that all lower drops are small enough to be safely ignored when it comes to comparing the equivalent value for 6* champs. In that case, what I get is:
Original Regular Cav: ~ 0.013 6* per crystal.
Original Featured Cav: ~ 0.0198 6* per crystal.
Given a cost of 200 units per regular (175 with the Thronebreaker discount) and 300 units per Featured, this means the average cost of acquiring a 6* champion is:
Original Regular Cav: 15355 units
Original Featured Cav: 15142 units
Thronebreaker Regular: 13436 units
How does this compare to the new crystals?
New Regular Cav: 5814 units
New Featured Cav: 5814 units
Thronebreaker Regular: 5087 units
The crystals got about 2.6 times more valuable overall. That's not bad. The implication is that 6* champs are, very roughly, worth about 5k to 6k units when purchased this way. How do the Cavalier crystals compare to other ways to purchase 6* champions? I can think of two other significant ways to do it. One way is to buy the daily Cavalier special. When those get updated they will have the same intrinsic value as regular Cav crystals but for $5 USD rather that 175/200 units. In terms of the normal conversion rate from dollars to units, that's a bit cheaper if you're buying units of course, units can be earned for free through game play. But if we assume for comparison purposes that $5 = 155 units (the exchange rate if you buy Odins) and we only focus on the 6* drop possibility (the offer contains other things of varying relative value) then:
Daily Cav special: 4506 units per 6* (on average).
Spending is a little bit cheaper, which is to be expected. But there's one more way to "buy" 6* champs: the Cavalier difficulty bundle. For 2975 units you get 5000 6* shards, 15k 5* shards, and 5 Cav crystals, plus a bunch more. If we convert all of that into 6* equivalents (and again ignore everything else) we get:
Cavalier Difficulty Bundle: 4906 units per 6* (on average).
But that's today. With the updated Cavalier odds, that becomes:
Cavalier Difficulty Bundle (updated): 4171 units per 6* (on average).
The value gets better because there are five Cavalier crystals in that bundle. Interestingly, the best way to get 6* champions, or at least the best value option of all of these, is the Cav bundle, and that doesn't even count anything else in that bundle.
When the Cavalier difficulty bundle first came out, many wondered if it was a mistake, or if it was temporary and would go away. The deal seemed too good to be true for some observers. But instead it seems the reverse is true: the Cav difficulty bundle was a sign that for Cavalier and higher players Kabam was starting to reduce the relative value of 6* champs, or to put it another way it was loosening their grip on them and believes a higher rate of them flowing into the game is now appropriate for those players, which is also consistent with their statements about Thronebreaker players being the next step up in focus on 6* champions. I suspect it is not a coincidence that once the odds changes are in place Regular Cav crystals bought with units, Featured Cav crystals bought with units, and regular Cav crystals bought in the unit store daily offers will all land in the same rough ballpark of value as the Cavalier difficulty bundle. The Cav bundle was signalling the new normal.
Also, and I think this would surprise some players, because it doesn't seem like it at a glance, but if you're buying Cavalier crystals and not buying the Cav completion bundle, even if you literally throw all the boosts and potions away, you might be doing it wrong. I think people look at that bundle and mentally estimate that bundle as about six thousand units per 6*. It is actually much less than that, even ignoring all of the potions and boost, and just correctly accounting for the value of the 15k 5* shards and the Cavalier crystals just in terms of their ability to generate 6* champions.
To summarize, if you're a Cav player both types of Cav crystals are costing you about 5800 units per 6*. If you are TB, its about 5100 units for the regular Cav. The Daily Cav (cash) offer is about the equivalent of 4500 units per 6*, and the Cav difficulty bundle is about 4200 units per 6*. That's the relative value of those options, assuming the only thing you count is the ability to generate 6* champions.
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Comments
Edit:
36.363636363636 5* dupes = 10,000 6* Shards
370,000 5* shards needed for 10,000 6* shards
1345 4* dupes = 370,000 5* shards = 10,000 6* shards
2,690,000 4* shards = 370,000 5* shards = 10,000 6* shards
147,950,000 3* shards = 2,690,000 4* shards = 370,000 5* shards = 10,000 6* shards
8,137,250,000 ÷ 2000 = 4,068,625 2* dupes needed to form a 6*
So in other words
4,068,625 Premium Hero Crystals = 1 6* Crystal
Dna just check my math... was tired
If all your champs are at max sig and presuming your max sig crystals drop shards most of the time, you can cut that down to closer to 18,644 PHCs.