No, unit odds haven't been reduced in arena crystals

Every year, the question gets asked. Every year, I post my statistical data surrounding the two big sale periods (J4 and CW). I figured this time a picture was worth my normal one thousand words.

Good luck to anyone popping these open this week specifically, but good luck or bad luck, the odds are still the same.

(PS: In case this is not obvious, these are Thronebreaker arena crystals. That's impossible to draw from 20 UC Crystals)

Comments

Malreck04

I find it impossible to believe that I can read an entire DNA post without having to scroll once

Riptide

4K units from what, 1 mill battleships? That’s pretty good!

CoatHang3r

I dunno mang! Just look over these openings!

Eh posting playlists sucks. I’ve come up with many goose eggs this month.

Solswerd

I find it impossible to believe that I can read an entire DNA post without having to scroll once

DNA is one of my favorite posters on this forum....but damn, that was a funny line.

GroundedWisdom

Amazing haul.

Mephisto

I just checked how much gold you got. Deadpool deals have changed my perspective

laserjohn26

Anomalies happen in large numbers. For every haul like that there could be 10,000 people getting nothing but 80,000 gold. Your haul is greatly outside the normal range or standard deviation.

GroundedWisdom

Anomalies happen in large numbers. For every haul like that there could be 10,000 people getting nothing but 80,000 gold. Your haul is greatly outside the normal range or standard deviation.

It's been my experience that the RNG has always been sporadic in terms of Units. They come and go. The occasional few, sometimes none, and every once in a while, it's a bumper crop. That's not unusual. Been that way as far as I remember.

DNA3000

Anomalies happen in large numbers. For every haul like that there could be 10,000 people getting nothing but 80,000 gold. Your haul is greatly outside the normal range or standard deviation.

Yes, this is all true. It is also a form of inoculation.

I’ve actually never gotten zero units from a million BC of TB arena crystals. My lowest so far has been 375 (which is one pull of the lowest unit drop). 4125 is the highest so far, beating out the previous record of 3750. The odds of going completely blank are about 26 to 1 against. As I’ve only opened 13 batches of 20 since they came out, it isn’t surprising I haven’t seen that yet, although eventually I will. It is unlikely that 10,000 people have seen that though.

Average so far: 2045. Median pull: 2250

Dontsellthem

I’ve opened the same amount and come out with 1200ish units or less

R

DNA3000

I just checked how much gold you got. Deadpool deals have changed my perspective

I pay a little less attention to the gold drops than most people do (although to be honest, arena is where most of it comes from).

Danemo666

What's the thoughts on the lower crystals? Currently sitting on around 300k BC. Is it better to always go TB crystals, or go lower when I haven't got the Bc built up to a high amount?

unknown

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I_tell_no_tales_1

I just checked how much gold you got. Deadpool deals have changed my perspective

I pay a little less attention to the gold drops than most people do (although to be honest, arena is where most of it comes from).

Even if you don't pay attention you are light years ahead of me in terms of gold
I have only 255k

unknown

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DNA3000

What's the thoughts on the lower crystals? Currently sitting on around 300k BC. Is it better to always go TB crystals, or go lower when I haven't got the Bc built up to a high amount?

Statistically, it doesn’t really matter. The TB crystal has the highest statistical return, mostly because it has higher rarity Punisher drops. It’s odds are also slightly tweaked to accommodate the energy drops (they aren’t just scaled up from UC because that would be ridiculous). But you aren’t likely to notice those differences.

However, if you only have a small amount of BC, I would recommend opening the smaller crystals. In the long run you’ll end up with the same result on average, but in the short term the TB crystals are a wild **** shoot if you only have 300k. I open them a million BC a at a time, and that’s still only 20 crystals. You’d be opening six. If you get even one 1125 unit drop you’d be ahead, but you could also miss on all six and get nothing.

If you’re a gambler, go TB. If you really need units now, go with the smaller crystals.

DNA3000

I just checked how much gold you got. Deadpool deals have changed my perspective

I pay a little less attention to the gold drops than most people do (although to be honest, arena is where most of it comes from).
Even if you don't pay attention you are light years ahead of me in terms of gold
I have only 255k
looks like he been popping lots of GGC during xmas for them gold

I probably average something like 6m gold a month from arena grinding alone (factoring direct gold, gold from BC, and gold from selling excess ISO fenerated from arena rewards). It adds up.

Also, when you have a lot of gold, you don’t ever have to open gold crystals. So I just accumulate them until a 20% boost day comes up and then open them all at once. So in effect, all my gold crystals have 20% more gold in them. And over an entire year, that’s a lot of gold crystals

Back in August I opened 44,452,080 worth of gold crystals, all of them just accumulated from gameplay. That’s 7.4 million gold from the 20% bonus, basically for free.

I actually have no idea what the gold yield is from GGCs. I just trade them with my alliance. I don’t go nuts on those.

Danemo666

Thank you for the info @DNA3000 I might just take the gamble, I nornally would have been looking for more units coming up to CW but this year, I'm not too interested in it this year. Hoping for a gold booster in Dec, so will work on building up the BC til then 😁👍any unit drop would be a plus for gifting

Graves_3

@DNA3000 did you really get 10 energy refills or is it just a visual glitch? Somewhat like opening those 4hr crystals and getting 100 small energy refills.

DNA3000

@DNA3000 did you really get 10 energy refills or is it just a visual glitch? Somewhat like opening those 4hr crystals and getting 100 small energy refills.

TB arena crystals drop ten energy refills when they drop energy. UC crystals drop five, but rather than scale this up by x5 (which would drop 25 refills to a player all at once) they instead increased the energy refill drop to ten and increased the drop rate of energy refills to compensate (energy refill drop rate for UC is 0.35%, it is 0.88% for TB) so the average amount of energy you get in TB crystals is about five times more (to balance their five times higher cost).

LeNoirFaineant

What's the expected amount of units from one million chips?

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DNA3000

What's the expected amount of units from one million chips?

I believe the statistical average is between 1900 and 2000.