Arena predictions setting the bar?

Chovner

I've always wondered if having multiple reddit posters and Youtubers putting out their arena predictions was a good or bad thing?

On the good side it does give people and idea of what they should aim on grinding out in arena based on the biggest players in the game's opinions, but on the bad side I always felt that the scores for min. cutoff are so high ONLY because these people are announcing that's how high they think the cutoffs will be, therefore willing it into existence.

I wonder if people didn't post high arena predictions would it be just have the top 50 arena grinders in the game putting up ridiculous numbers and then everyone else putting up numbers more reflective of people who plays the game a lot, but still have a normal social life (grinding out 190 Millions points in arena means you've either shut down your social/work life and reduced sleep for 3 days or you hired a bot). So you'd have 50 people at the 180 million mark, then then the next 51-100 people are showing scored of 80-90 million (a more realistic high functioning person/gamer score).

I'd imagine without Youtubers throwing out 120-180 million featured 6* arena min. cutoffs, we might see more arena cutoffs lower than 100M like the last rounds. I appreciate the service they're trying to offer, by giving people their best guess, but that's all it is a just a guess based on character popularity.

It would be a great experiment if MCOC Trucos, @RichTheMan and other people who put out arena predictions regularly stopped doing it for a couple months to see what happens organically without anyone's influence.

winterthur

It is my first time hitting all milestones of the Catalyst Clash.

I would like to know how much needed to hit the next tier.

D0ctor_S

Chovner said:

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It would be a great experiment if MCOC Trucos, @RichTheMan and other people who put out arena predictions regularly stopped doing it for a couple months to see what happens organically without anyone's influence.

Correlation does not imply causation. Most of the rough cut offs are generally known by most arena grinders and scores will generally be the same based on the roster depth of those who normally grind.

firemoon712

Arena predictions were good back when there was 3 star, 4 star, and 5 star arenas
Now that's there's only 2 arenas(not counting the beginner arena with the TONS of units), it's literally more of a shot in the dark than before.
Arena predictions really don't have as much say as you think, it's just that, a guess.
Most who do arena don't get to the predicted cutoff and then stop.

Scarcity27

I do think that 'predicted scores' influence the arena cutoffs to some extent, but there will always be some people that go absolutely nuts for a champion.

What I would like to see is the people who post these predictions post a score much lower than expected and then another time post a score much higher than expected. Should lead to some interesting results.

RichTheMan

Most People in the community and arena grinders normally follow their own targets. These players more commonly wont use Youtube, Social Media or Forums so trying to get them to follow a scheme of lower and fairer grind as you seem to want may not be easy.
We have had arena bots for best part of 2021 which have massively influenced the scores players have done, kabam only 2 weeks ago took action on them.

I would say at times i do try to predict as fairly as possible against assumption, opinion and a little bit of referring to tier lists and previous arena cut-offs to get to said predictions. At the end of the day i could as a tester try one week not predicting arena cut-offs and see what happens as an experiment. If it works it works if it fails it fails to make difference but defo would be interested in trying.

Unknown

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mostlyharmlessn

Chovner said:

I've always wondered if having multiple reddit posters and Youtubers putting out their arena predictions was a good or bad thing?

On the good side it does give people and idea of what they should aim on grinding out in arena based on the biggest players in the game's opinions, but on the bad side I always felt that the scores for min. cutoff are so high ONLY because these people are announcing that's how high they think the cutoffs will be, therefore willing it into existence.

I wonder if people didn't post high arena predictions would it be just have the top 50 arena grinders in the game putting up ridiculous numbers and then everyone else putting up numbers more reflective of people who plays the game a lot, but still have a normal social life (grinding out 190 Millions points in arena means you've either shut down your social/work life and reduced sleep for 3 days or you hired a bot). So you'd have 50 people at the 180 million mark, then then the next 51-100 people are showing scored of 80-90 million (a more realistic high functioning person/gamer score).

I'd imagine without Youtubers throwing out 120-180 million featured 6* arena min. cutoffs, we might see more arena cutoffs lower than 100M like the last rounds. I appreciate the service they're trying to offer, by giving people their best guess, but that's all it is a just a guess based on character popularity.

It would be a great experiment if MCOC Trucos, @RichTheMan and other people who put out arena predictions regularly stopped doing it for a couple months to see what happens organically without anyone's influence.

I've been around the game long enough, did many arena grinds and got the golden ring champ I grinded for.

We have an idea based on past experience what will be needed based on the champ and the utility that comes with that champ.

IMHO, those put out predictions are more of a help to those that have not regularly done the arena grind have a better chance at getting the champ.

Those that pay grinders and use bots have already assigned a value to the champ and pay it regardless of what the predictions are that made by the YouTubers.

DNA3000

Chovner said:

I've always wondered if having multiple reddit posters and Youtubers putting out their arena predictions was a good or bad thing?

On the good side it does give people and idea of what they should aim on grinding out in arena based on the biggest players in the game's opinions, but on the bad side I always felt that the scores for min. cutoff are so high ONLY because these people are announcing that's how high they think the cutoffs will be, therefore willing it into existence.

I wonder if people didn't post high arena predictions would it be just have the top 50 arena grinders in the game putting up ridiculous numbers and then everyone else putting up numbers more reflective of people who plays the game a lot, but still have a normal social life (grinding out 190 Millions points in arena means you've either shut down your social/work life and reduced sleep for 3 days or you hired a bot). So you'd have 50 people at the 180 million mark, then then the next 51-100 people are showing scored of 80-90 million (a more realistic high functioning person/gamer score).

I'd imagine without Youtubers throwing out 120-180 million featured 6* arena min. cutoffs, we might see more arena cutoffs lower than 100M like the last rounds. I appreciate the service they're trying to offer, by giving people their best guess, but that's all it is a just a guess based on character popularity.

It would be a great experiment if MCOC Trucos, @RichTheMan and other people who put out arena predictions regularly stopped doing it for a couple months to see what happens organically without anyone's influence.

People used to discuss this all the time back in the day. There were people who thought that both arena predictions and arena documentation for cutoffs were increasing cutoffs. However, they aren't, for two simple reasons. First, arena grinders talk to each other, so much of the data on scoring is known. Second, most arena grinders are perfectly capable of making their own predictions based on arena experience, and are more likely to go with their own predictions than the public ones.

Public arena predictions are more for fun than anything else.