Arena rank correction analysis

So Arena Claus came down the chimney today, and I thought it would be interesting to compare which champs I got and what my rank was in those arenas to see how much the anti-bot anti-cheat systems that Kabam implemented impacted those arenas. For the seven champs above, these are the ranks I achieved between the two rounds:

Based on these numbers, it seems like the number of places that were nullified due to Kabam's improved anti-cheat detection system was at least 17 places for Voodoo, and an incredible 68 places for Void (out of top 100). For 5* featured champs, it was between 44 places for America Chavez and 96 places for Hercules. I also received a champ from a basic arena (DDHK) due to an (at least) 47 rank adjustment.

Given how many places were touched in the top 100 and top 500, this implies hundreds of bots and other cheaters detected and either removed from the standings or banned from the game, as most bots were unlikely to be consistently entering the top 500.

In the 12/16 arena I managed to get 113, but did not get a selector as compensation. Apparently starting around mid December, Kabam's real time detection became good enough that the back corrections did not detect as many if any cheats from that arena moving forward. So presumably arenas beyond mid December are likely to have less (but not necessarily zero) cheating.

Apparently, I got an AV even though I actually hit the 500 rank in both rounds. When I reported this I was told was that this was likely due to that arena having a real time ban that put me into the top 500 that wasn't counted in the correction pass, making it seem like I placed just outside of 500. So it is possible that a couple of players in every arena right on the borderline might have gotten a bonus 5* champ.

Anyway, while this doesn't mean Kabam as eliminated all bad actors from the arena, hopefully this means that the arenas will be much fairer to grinders than they have been in the recent past. And I happen to know that this activity was triggered in part by discussions Kabam had with the CCP, and some of that brainstorming almost certainly led to this result, so players have both Kabam and the CCP to thank for this improvement to the arenas and compensation for the effects of the bad actors in the arena (long may these bad actors burn in heck).

Comments

willrun4adonut

I'm a 4th grade teacher and I think I'm going to have my students start reading your posts to see how to construct arguments and analyze data. And then we'll have a MCOC club during recess too.

And how to write a concluding statement (long may these bad actors burn in heck)

unknown

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winterthur

We're doing a GGC drive just for DNA this December. I'm in for 1, let's collected at least 200+.

I am in.

DNA3000

I'm a 4th grade teacher and I think I'm going to have my students start reading your posts to see how to construct arguments and analyze data. And then we'll have a MCOC club during recess too.

And how to write a concluding statement (long may these bad actors burn in heck)

Tell your students I originally wrote “may they burn in heck” but I changed it to remove the ambiguous antecedent, because you should never use those. And when you’re reviewing your own writing, don’t read it like you’re editing your own work because you’ll be too in love with your own words, read it like you’re listening to your brother and looking for opportunities to make fun of them, because that’s how you’ll catch most of your mistakes.

Scarcity27

I'm a 4th grade teacher and I think I'm going to have my students start reading your posts to see how to construct arguments and analyze data. And then we'll have a MCOC club during recess too.

And how to write a concluding statement (long may these bad actors burn in heck)
Tell your students I originally wrote “may they burn in heck” but I changed it to remove the ambiguous antecedent, because you should never use those. And when you’re reviewing your own writing, don’t read it like you’re editing your own work because you’ll be too in love with your own words, read it like you’re listening to your brother and looking for opportunities to make fun of them, because that’s how you’ll catch most of your mistakes.

I'm just about to finish writing an important essay, and this is excellent advice, thank you.

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DNA3000

Thanks DNA, I might actually pull the trigger on chasing the odd 5* now

The data suggests that most of the improvement in scores (in terms of them going down) have already been factored into arena cutoffs since late December, so if you're shooting for 6* or 5* featured, the most recent scores moving forward should be a reasonable guide to whether you stand a good chance or not.

5* featured cutoffs have been floating around in the 30-50m range, and while there haven't been a lot of arenas since late December, it is possible overall cutoff scores have dropped marginally. This is probably due to the fact that there are enough players (like me) plowing 6* rosters through that arena and posting enough scores in and around the cutoffs to cushion cutoff scores dropping too much. My gut instinct is that the 5* basic cutoff has dropped more, from averaging closer to 17-18m to averaging closer to 15m, but there's wilder swings in that cutoff so its hard to be sure.

In any case, dropping cutoff scores is a secondary benefit: that's related to how much effort players want to put into the arena. The primary benefit is that that effort is being properly rewarded for players who did enough to place well relative to their non-cheating competition. To lose to another player is fine (or should be), so long as they win fair and square. If a champ goes for 20m or 100m, it is we players who are deciding that, not Kabam, provided all the players collectively setting that score are doing so within the rules. Cheaters need to understand they aren't cheating Kabam, they are cheating their fellow players and that should never be tolerated.

pseudosane

the number of cheaters is staggering.
I wonder if they were mainly repeat offenders, and what punishments were doled out.

Very good analysis DNA

DNA3000

the number of cheaters is staggering.

Well, less so now.

I wonder if they were mainly repeat offenders, and what punishments were doled out.

Kabam never says specifically, but my understanding is if someone breaks the rules, ordinarily they get a temporary ban that escalates with repeat offenses. Enough repeats will get you permanently banned. But there are special case circumstances (like bot accounts that probably don't have a human on the other side, or ultra-egregious violations) where Kabam will ban an account immediately.

My guess is most of the cheaters are in time-out, and most of the bots are being held in the pocket universe by Dr. Strange Supreme.

Something else to consider. Most arena bot accounts aren't targeting the top prizes: that's actually a dumb dumb on their part because that makes them draw too much attention. Most are just trying to farm units. Logically, a lot of those units were probably dispensed to grey market GGC buyers during the gifting event. Those units/crystals are now traceable to arena bots. So separate from the arena compensation rewards, it is possible we might see a burst of people complaining they got a ton of negative units suddenly but can't imagine what they did to earn them, because they thought they got away clean.

pseudosane

the number of cheaters is staggering.
Well, less so now.

Lol yep. I should Have written as "was"

I wonder if they were mainly repeat offenders, and what punishments were doled out.
Kabam never says specifically, but my understanding is if someone breaks the rules, ordinarily they get a temporary ban that escalates with repeat offenses. Enough repeats will get you permanently banned. But there are special case circumstances (like bot accounts that probably don't have a human on the other side, or ultra-egregious violations) where Kabam will ban an account immediately.

My guess is most of the cheaters are in time-out, and most of the bots are being held in the pocket universe by Dr. Strange Supreme.

Something else to consider. Most arena bot accounts aren't targeting the top prizes: that's actually a dumb dumb on their part because that makes them draw too much attention. Most are just trying to farm units. Logically, a lot of those units were probably dispensed to grey market GGC buyers during the gifting event. Those units/crystals are now traceable to arena bots. So separate from the arena compensation rewards, it is possible we might see a burst of people complaining they got a ton of negative units suddenly but can't imagine what they did to earn them, because they thought they got away clean.

That would be such a good karmic punishment, I'd enjoy that.