You think kabam were so nice to give cav crystals for 2000 shards?? Lol

LordPSN

See the images..
The % of getting 6star champs are now greatly reduced!

4000 shards


2000 shards

Lpoo

I didn’t notice that at all.. thanks for the heads up. What’s the deal? I feel like “Event Cavalier Crystals” should be the same in name AND in their contents.

PapaMidnite007

I am expecting 3 stars in all of them

winterthur

PapaMidnite007 said:

I am expecting 3 stars in all of them

50% chance it is not 3-Star.

LordPSN

winterthur said:

PapaMidnite007 said:

I am expecting 3 stars in all of them

50% chance it is not 3-Star.

Yeah earlier it was only 60% for not getting a 3star..
But yeah, you keep looking at the good things.
Silver lining and all! 🤣🤣

GroundedWisdom

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

danielmath

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Pretty sure if lordpsn says it, it’s true

GinjabredMonsta

danielmath said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Pretty sure if lordpsn says it, it’s true

More like SquirePSN

AverageDesi

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

You might be joking but,
it's better it's 4.5% against 5.91%

Graves_3

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?

danielmath

Graves_3 said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?

This would be more like 1 crystal with 100% or 2 crystals with 75%

Graves_3

danielmath said:

Graves_3 said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?

This would be more like 1 crystal with 100% or 2 crystals with 75%

3:4.5 is not the same as 75:100

danielmath

Graves_3 said:

danielmath said:

Graves_3 said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?

This would be more like 1 crystal with 100% or 2 crystals with 75%

3:4.5 is not the same as 75:100

I didn’t count it, the point is it’s clearly and inarguably better

Graves_3

danielmath said:

Graves_3 said:

danielmath said:

Graves_3 said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?

This would be more like 1 crystal with 100% or 2 crystals with 75%

3:4.5 is not the same as 75:100

I didn’t count it, the point is it’s clearly and inarguably better

Neither am I arguing if it’s better or worse. I am just asking a hypothetical question to GW about what he would choose.

danielmath

Graves_3 said:

danielmath said:

Graves_3 said:

danielmath said:

Graves_3 said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?

This would be more like 1 crystal with 100% or 2 crystals with 75%

3:4.5 is not the same as 75:100

I didn’t count it, the point is it’s clearly and inarguably better

Neither am I arguing if it’s better or worse. I am just asking a hypothetical question to GW about what he would choose.

There’s no argument, it’s better

GroundedWisdom

AverageDesi said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

You might be joking but,
it's better it's 4.5% against 5.91%

One chance with a 4.5% probability is not better than 2 at 3%.

Graves_3 said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?

I don't believe anyone would take that chance unless they were fond of gambling, but we're not dealing with absolutes here. We're dealing with RNG. One may be 1.5% higher, but 2 spins is twice the chance.

ThatGuyYouSaw235

GroundedWisdom said:

AverageDesi said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

You might be joking but,
it's better it's 4.5% against 5.91%

One chance with a 4.5% probability is not better than 2 at 3%.

Graves_3 said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?

I don't believe anyone would take that chance unless they were fond of gambling, but we're not dealing with absolutes here. We're dealing with RNG. One may be 1.5% higher, but 2 spins is twice the chance.

I'm bored so I'll dump some quick maths before DNA can

You roll 3% once, it becomes 3/100 to get a six star. You roll 3% twice and you end up with a few different paths.

If didn't pull a six star from either crystal, (97/100)(97/100) would be equal to around 9,409/10000. We can shorten this down to 94.09% of you not getting a six star from either crystal.

If you pulled a six star from the first one but not the second one, (3/100)(97/100) would be equal to around 291/10000. You can shorten this down to 2.91%.

If you didn't pull a six star from the first but did on the second, (97/100)(3/100). Once again you would end up with 2.91%.

Now if you're the lucky **** that managed to get six stars in both crystals in a row,(3/100)(3/100) nets you 9/10000 odds. This is roughly equal to 0.09%.

Now if you add the events that involve you getting six stars. You have a 5.91% chance of pulling at least one 6* from two crystals.

Assuming that the shard spread did not decrease from say... last months events.

You have 1 4.5% chance against 1 5.91% chance once you even it out. But that's only if the shard spread didn't change.

If anyone has any idea how many crystals you could get without using the top ups in the stores from last month and this month, then we can make a reliable statement. But right now as I see it, these crystals are technically better.

PapaMidnite007

If i get a 6 star on any of these cystals i will honestly be surprised

Fenico

Their price doesn't matter. If it got reduced to 2000 per crystal it doesn't mean we are getting more crystals since it depends on amount of total shards.

As for the drop rates, they were always altering between these two. Don't ask me why, I don't understand either but this is what we always had.

Kerneas

Okay, so the odds are worse.

Last month I had 60% chance to pull what I want.
This month it i 50%

Last month I got X shots at what I want.
If I get to open at least 1.2 X crystals this month, I am fine w that

Because statistically: last month 6/10 crystals would get me what I want. So ideally I should get 6 champs that I want. This month, those 6 champs would drop from 12 crystals (ideally).

So it boils down to how many of these crystals we get to open

te_dua_shum

@Kerneas If you buy all bundles with cav shards and you collect all shards from the calendar you should be able to open 29 cav crystals without spending nothing: they might have regular cav drop rates instead of featured ones but it's still a pretty good number of tries ^_^

I'm not sure about those drop rates, though: I just opened my third account who is UC and the GM version of this crystal does have featured drop rates (5%/15%/80% where regular are 3%/15%/82%), so why cavs don't? ^^"

Mord

Kerneas said:

So it boils down to how many of these crystals we get to open

That's pretty much it.

I only care about 6*, so for the sake of the calculation let's pick the probability for a single event of getting one 6* champion, so:

p(success_old_rates) = p1 = 0.045
p(success_new_rates) = p2 = 0.03

The probability of getting at least 1 6* in any number of experiments can be calculated from the Probability of not getting any 6s at all as:
P(k1>=1) = 1-P(k1=0) (for old rates)
P(k2>=1) = 1-P(k2=0) (for new rates)

Or, using the binomial distribution formula:

P(k1>=0) = 1-(1-p1)^n1
P(k2>=0) = 1-(1-p2)^n2

Breakeven condition - cristals ratio for equal probabilities of success:

P(k1>=0) = P(k2>=0)
1-(1-p1)^n1 = 1-(1-p2)^n2
n1*log(1-p1) = n2*log(1-p2)
n2 = n1*log(1-p1)/log(1-p2)
n2 = n1*log(1-0.045)/log(1-0.03)

which results in
n2 = 1.51 n1

So... we breakeven the chances of getting at least 1 6*, compared with previous month, if we get to open about 1.5 times more cristals.

Unless I botched the calculations somewhere...

AverageDesi

GroundedWisdom said:

AverageDesi said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

You might be joking but,
it's better it's 4.5% against 5.91%

One chance with a 4.5% probability is not better than 2 at 3%.

Isn't that what I said?

AverageDesi

Graves_3 said:

GroundedWisdom said:

So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?

Once you put 100% it's kinda difficult .
The option here is 100% chance to get a 6* against 75% chance to get a6* with also a 25% chance to get 2 6*s

KyrinMcH

if u open 10 crystals at a 4.5% chance of a 6* u have a 36.9% chance of getting 1 6*
if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*

we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same

Cr7ms7rs7

Thanks for maths lesson. Appreciate it.

Vergeman78

Why do people assume we get more crystals just because the price is 2k shards? If we get 29 potential crystals this month if we buy all the instore offers, how many did we get last month? I am by no means saying it is better or worse, just questioning the logic of getting more crystals just because they dropped the price. They control the flow of how many shards we can get as well. Might balance out in the end

AverageDesi

Vergeman78 said:

Why do people assume we get more crystals just because the price is 2k shards? If we get 29 potential crystals this month if we buy all the instore offers, how many did we get last month? I am by no means saying it is better or worse, just questioning the logic of getting more crystals just because they dropped the price. They control the flow of how many shards we can get as well. Might balance out in the end

We got like 7 last month

te_dua_shum

Vergeman78 said:

Why do people assume we get more crystals just because the price is 2k shards? If we get 29 potential crystals this month if we buy all the instore offers, how many did we get last month? I am by no means saying it is better or worse, just questioning the logic of getting more crystals just because they dropped the price. They control the flow of how many shards we can get as well. Might balance out in the end

last month we got 7 crystals, and we got around the same number of crystals all months since June 2021 with the exception of December ^_^

Colonaut123

KyrinMcH said:

if u open 10 crystals at a 4.5% chance of a 6* u have a 36.9% chance of getting 1 6*
if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*

we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same

Not exactly. Chances are independent, thus multiplicative not additive.

Let's say we would get 20,000 shards.

You could get 5 crystals with a 4.5% chance of a 6* (or 95.5% of something else). The chance of not getting a 6* is 95.5%^5 = 0.794%, or 20.6% chance of a 6*.

You could get 10 crystals with a 3% chance of a 6* (or 97% of something else). The chance of not getting a 6* is 97%^10 = 0.737%, or 26.3% chance of a 6*. A slight improvement.

That is, we will be getting the same amount of shards.

AverageDesi

Colonaut123 said:

KyrinMcH said:

if u open 10 crystals at a 4.5% chance of a 6* u have a 36.9% chance of getting 1 6*
if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*

we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same

Not exactly. Chances are independent, thus multiplicative not additive.

Let's say we would get 20,000 shards.

You could get 5 crystals with a 4.5% chance of a 6* (or 95.5% of something else). The chance of not getting a 6* is 95.5%^5 = 0.794%, or 20.6% chance of a 6*.

You could get 10 crystals with a 3% chance of a 6* (or 97% of something else). The chance of not getting a 6* is 97%^10 = 0.737%, or 26.3% chance of a 6*. A slight improvement.

That is, we will be getting the same amount of shards.

We're you qouting someone else? You said "not exactly" and then proceed to explain the exact same thing with exact same conclusion but with different number of crystals?