Hercules Battlegrounds Choice Frequency

This forum post might be a bit strange, I apologize if that's the case. I get the feeling that the chances of getting Hercules as a champ in battlegrounds is significantly lower than any other champ. I know it sounds like some sort of absurd conspiracy theory, but I've only gotten him once since the start of the beta. It's not because people are banning him either. As soon as I caught on to this, I've started keeping a close eye on it and still, whenever he's not banned, I never get him. I just can't bring myself to believe the odds, you get per deck of seven the choice out of 18 champs in total from a deck that's 27 including bans. I'm not a math guru but that would seem like a 66,67% chance to get him, right? It's probably worth mentioning that he's my top champ as well. It's starting to actually irritate me as the opponent basically gets an extra ban for no reason. Again, I know it sounds insane, but I just can't ignore it anymore. So I'm here now to ask if others have had the same experience with either Hercules or their respective top champ. If anyone has any questions regarding odds, matchups, etcetera, please let me know. I appreciate the help fellas!

Comments

Etm34

My herc has come up almost every time I’ve played a match. Warlock is my champ that won’t pop up.

You’re thinking too much into it.

Mauled

I’ve not noticed that. He pops up frequently for me. Tbh he’s not the best option right now with the reduced timers IMO

SpideyFunko

for you, maybe

for me it’s my torch. Only time I can ever seem to get him is when the opponent has no mystics

Aleor

I almost never get to pick fury. Maybe, because people ban my only r4 too often

unknown

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Rebark

I don't know if you know, but if you ban a champion, he gets banned for you too.
If you are banning Hercules, your Hercules will not appear for you to pick

Captainaiden

my herc and ihulk always get banned

herc is not only champs is good, try choose other

Vendemiaire

If my Herc isn't banned, I usually get him on my picks. Torch is coming up a little too low for me this time around. You're just suffering from selective bias. It's just RNG.

KoopaKrusher

TL;DR Math post: The chance of seeing a specific champ in Battlegrounds is about 60%. Because of that, everyone can expect to have a champ that they don't see for their next 3-5 matches, and the unlucky ones could go longer and that's totally expected.

Let's break this down into draft rounds and BG matches. Each draft round has 3 or 5 deck draws. On each deck draw you've got n champs left in your deck and n-1 that aren't the champ you're looking for (let's call it Blade cuz I like Blade), on the next draw in the round, you've got n-1 champs left and n-2 that aren't Blade. So at the end of the round your probability of not seeing Blade is (n - number of draws) / n. For the first overall round, assuming you didn't ban any of your own champs, that gives you a (27-3)/27=89% chance of not seeing Blade. Second round, you've only got 26 champs in your deck, but 5 get drawn so there's a (26-5)/26=81% chance of not seeing Blade in the second round. So the chance of not seeing Blade in the first round or the second round is 89% * 81% = 72% chance of not seeing Blade by the end of the second round, also known as a 28% chance (100% - 72%) chance of seeing Blade in the first two rounds.

Repeating this math for all the drafting rounds and accounting for banning your own champs and drafting first vs second, your best chance of seeing Blade is 61.8% if you draft second and have 6 champs banned from your deck (all 3 of your bans are in your deck and different from your opponent's bans) and your worst chance of seeing Blade is 57.1% if you draft first and don't ban anyone from your own deck. Fun Fact: drafting second increases your chances of seeing a champ by 0.2%.

Moving on to BG matches, let's approximate the chance of seeing any unbanned champ at 60%. So for each match, you won't see 40% of your champs. So after 1 match, there's 40% of your deck (12 champs) that you haven't seen yet. After 2 matches, you still won't have seen about 16% of your deck (3-4 champs). After 3 matches, everyone is expected to still have 1 champ they haven't seen yet. And these are all averages across the whole game, so some people will get lucky and see their champs every other match and a lot of people will have to wait even longer to see their favorite champ.

Jaded

I’m salty for not having Hercules, so if the opponent has Hercules any rarity I ban him quickly 😂

WhoDaPoo

Pops up frequently for me... but my HT never shows up

L0TUS_MANTIS

I have R4 Shang Chi and Torch. Shang Chi shows up often but I've only had torch show up once out of 16 matches when he wasn't banned. It does feel weird

unknown

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ItsyaboyStephy05

This forum post might be a bit strange, I apologize if that's the case. I get the feeling that the chances of getting Hercules as a champ in battlegrounds is significantly lower than any other champ. I know it sounds like some sort of absurd conspiracy theory, but I've only gotten him once since the start of the beta. It's not because people are banning him either. As soon as I caught on to this, I've started keeping a close eye on it and still, whenever he's not banned, I never get him. I just can't bring myself to believe the odds, you get per deck of seven the choice out of 18 champs in total from a deck that's 27 including bans. I'm not a math guru but that would seem like a 66,67% chance to get him, right? It's probably worth mentioning that he's my top champ as well. It's starting to actually irritate me as the opponent basically gets an extra ban for no reason. Again, I know it sounds insane, but I just can't ignore it anymore. So I'm here now to ask if others have had the same experience with either Hercules or their respective top champ. If anyone has any questions regarding odds, matchups, etcetera, please let me know. I appreciate the help fellas!

Edit: thanks for all the insightful comments lads! I wasn’t aware of the fact that you ban champs for both players. Just did some testing and can confirm that that seems to be the case. I was just being a major idiot XD. Guess you learn something new everyday. Again, thanks for the great answers fellas!