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6* Champion Pulls - Weirdly skewed odds

My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics; is this normal? How skewed are your pulls?

Total 6* pulls: 42
Cosmics : 18
Skill : 8
Tech : 6
Mutant : 5
Science : 4
Mystic : 1

Cosmics : Airwalker x 2, Annihilus, Cpt Marvel (old), Gamora, Heimdall x 2, Knull, Kamala, Nova x 2, Phoenix, Proxima, Red Goblin, Silver Surfer, Super Skrull, Thor OG, Venom the duck

Skill: Crossbones, DD HK, Elektra, Gwenpool, Hawkeye, Jabari, Shang-chi, Taskmaster

Tech: Doc Oc, Guardian, Punisher 2099, Red skull, Silver centurion, Vision (Age of Ultron)

Mutant: Colossus, Domino, Kitty, Prof X, Sunspot

Science: Abom OG, Joe Fixit, Red Guardian, She hulk

Mystic: Doctor strange
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Comments

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    Denslo500Denslo500 Posts: 905 ★★★
    I have opened about 80 crystals and only have 7 Science champs.
    I am heavily skewed to Mystic and Cosmic.
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    TheInfintyTheInfinty Posts: 1,382 ★★★★
    Science 4
    Skill 3
    Mutant 6
    Tech 3
    Cosmic 6
    Mystic 0
    Fairly even for me
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    ItsDamienItsDamien Posts: 5,626 ★★★★★
    Same thing happened to me for a very long time. I was heavily (and still am skewed) toward Mutant champs, mix of good and bad. That’s just kind of how RNG goes.
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    Same happened to me. Took forever to get a single mystic. Now it's balanced out across all my classes. Currently at like 155 or so 6*.
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    ChatterofforumsChatterofforums Posts: 1,779 ★★★★★

    My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics; is this normal? How skewed are your pulls?

    Total 6* pulls: 42
    Cosmics : 18
    Skill : 8
    Tech : 6
    Mutant : 5
    Science : 4
    Mystic : 1

    Cosmics : Airwalker x 2, Annihilus, Cpt Marvel (old), Gamora, Heimdall x 2, Knull, Kamala, Nova x 2, Phoenix, Proxima, Red Goblin, Silver Surfer, Super Skrull, Thor OG, Venom the duck

    Skill: Crossbones, DD HK, Elektra, Gwenpool, Hawkeye, Jabari, Shang-chi, Taskmaster

    Tech: Doc Oc, Guardian, Punisher 2099, Red skull, Silver centurion, Vision (Age of Ultron)

    Mutant: Colossus, Domino, Kitty, Prof X, Sunspot

    Science: Abom OG, Joe Fixit, Red Guardian, She hulk

    Mystic: Doctor strange

    Did you seriously ask if the results of you rng (random results) was normal? If it was, then it wouldn't be rng.
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    DNA3000 said:

    My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics; is this normal?

    The most unbalanced set of 42 drops I saw in one hundred trials was:

    [14, 6, 1, 3, 10, 8]

    retrying the same RNG experiment, the most unbalanced set of pulls I saw out of 100 trials was:

    [15, 7, 5, 3, 8, 4]

    How often does this happen in random trials (one class showing up at least 18 times out of 42)? About once every 1462. So unusual, but not astronomically rare.
    That's some really fascinating math, quite insightful. I think the skew is more pronounced considering 3 of my non cosmic pulls were from 1 skill-mutant crystal (Aegon Carina challenge) and 2 nexus 6* crystals

    Planning my T5 CCs for rank-ups is a challenge, my T5CC pulls do not follow the same pattern.
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    SammyDeSammyDe Posts: 1,002 ★★★
    Gets a lot more complicated when you consider there are different types of crystals which gives different odds like SQ, featured, dual class, seasonal deal, Abyss nexus, gifting crystals (r.i.p.).
    I have 49 champs from 58 pulls which is heavily skewed towards Science:

    Science 21 (1 from dual class)
    Cosmic 11
    Skill 9
    Mutant 7 (1 from EOP class nexus)
    Tech. 5
    Mystic. 4

    For the first ~20, I have no mystic and 1 tech. So it only got better as the sample size increases.
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    WarlockjrWarlockjr Posts: 798 ★★★
    I just awakened my first 6* its havok does his awakened ability make him better?
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    Stebo_79Stebo_79 Posts: 636 ★★★
    Fairly even for me so far with my 6 star roster.

    Science 4 (1 duped)
    Cosmic 4
    Skill 4
    Mutant 4
    Tech. 4
    Mystic. 2

    Although with my 5 stars I did go for a very long time not pulling any techs at all, even when I open duals.
    It was so bad I had to use an expiring tech awakening gem on og iron man

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    HamoBlamo51HamoBlamo51 Posts: 289 ★★
    Mystic: 4
    Tech: 3
    Cosmic: 3
    Mutant: 3
    Science: 3
    Skill: 1
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    willrun4adonutwillrun4adonut Posts: 3,613 ★★★★★
    edited September 2022
    My second 6* pull ever was Hawkeye. I’d go another 47 champs before I got another skill champ, but had 13 mutants.
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    Ansh_AAnsh_A Posts: 547 ★★★
    Dont quite have the rosters you all have but my results have been extremely uniform.

    First 6:
    Cosmic, Mystic, Tech, Mutant, Skill and Science

    Next 6:
    Science, Mystic, Mutant, Tech, Skill, Mystic (dupe)

    Next 2:
    Mutant and Mystic

    Need one Cosmic now for fairly even distribution
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    Real_Madrid_76_2Real_Madrid_76_2 Posts: 3,440 ★★★★★
    Guardian saves the day for all
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    Gogeta91199Gogeta91199 Posts: 990 ★★★★
    edited September 2022
    I’ve got 88 6*s out of which
    12 science
    20 skill
    17 cosmic
    8 mystic
    12 tech
    19 mutants

    I am really skewed towards mutants, skills and cosmics. And really lacking in mystics
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    ErcarretErcarret Posts: 2,813 ★★★★★
    It's just how things are sometimes. I have 126 6* champs yet it was only recently that I even took up my first Skill champ to r3. I have a lower-than-average amount of Skill champions in my roster, and even fewer who I'd consider ranking up. Meanwhile, I have almost twice as many Mystic champions as Skill ones, and basically all of the Mystic champions I care about. It's just how it is sometimes.
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    My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics;

    Total 6* pulls: 42
    Cosmics : 18
    Skill : 8
    Tech : 6
    Mutant : 5
    Science : 4
    Mystic : 1

    Update,

    Another 6 * crystal, another cosmic. Takes the tally of cosmics to 19 out of 43
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    TitoBandito187TitoBandito187 Posts: 2,072 ★★★★
    I was very cosmic heavy for the longest time too. Most were terrible as well (no CGR's or Herc's back then, but luckily King Groot got buffed because I couldn't stop pulling him to save my life when he was terrible - so happy he's not now).

    I got to 54 6* crystals before my 1st skill champ landed and almost no dupes (besides King Groot and 3x Beast naturally at the time too). I was ecstatic when it finally happened, for a small moment, until I realized it was just Squirrel Girl. RNG stinks at times. My saving grace was a Nexus pick shortly after that got me MoleMan, then I got 4 other dud skill champs (including a Squirrel Girl dupe) in a row "naturally".

    Now I have 106 6* (along with many, many dupes) and 18 are skill - more than my science (16), mutant (13) and not far below the other classes: cosmic (19), tech (21) and mystic (19). It took some time, but it averaged out.

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    OrtounOrtoun Posts: 627 ★★★
    I have between 14 and 17 of every class but skill which has 23
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    TheCaptain412TheCaptain412 Posts: 337 ★★★
    51 6* pulls, plus Unstoppable Colossus. Totals are:

    Cosmic - 14, one dupe (Champion)
    Science - 10
    Skill - 9
    Mutant - 8
    Mystic - 6 (including UC), one dupe (Maw)
    Tech - 3

    Fair distribution across the middle, one somewhat high outlier, one really low outlier. My stats classes from college tell me this is probably pretty normal.
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    LeNoirFaineantLeNoirFaineant Posts: 8,656 ★★★★★
    It will even out over time. I've had largely lopsided classes before but it's fairly even now. This doesn't account for dupes and nexus crystals, but I have:

    Science - 23
    Skill - 21
    Mutant - 17
    Cosmic - 26
    Tech - 24
    Mystic - 20
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    It will even out over time.

    Technically, it doesn't have to, at least not in an absolute sense.

    The idea of reversion to the mean is often misunderstood. Some people think that the more ones you roll on a six sided die, the more likely it is to roll anything but a one on the next roll. But that's false: if the die isn't loaded and the roller not cheating, then the rolls are independent. If you roll five ones in a row, the odds of rolling one again are still one in six. The results won't "even out" over time. If they did, that would prove the die was non-random.

    What does happen is the percentages will even out over time. Suppose, just to exaggerate a bit, that someone were to pull 20 cosmics in a row from 6* basic crystals. You would *not* expect them to pull far fewer cosmics over the next few hundred rolls. You would expect that that 20 cosmic imbalance would persist over time, because the crystals don't remember. What you would expect is the drops would be random from that point forward, as if those pulls didn't happen.

    Over hundreds of pulls, and then thousands, that original weird anomaly of 20 cosmics would become less and less noticeable in the statistics, until finally it would be lost in the noise when we look back at the last ten thousand crystals and see each class having about 1700 drops, plus or minus. The long term averages eventually "drown out" any statistical blips. In fact, in a very real sense that's what statistics is: the long term averages drowning out the effects of every single individual roll.

    This is a difficult idea for some people to wrap their minds around, but statistically speaking two things are true when it comes to this situation of opening random crystals that contain classes of items. One, the numeric imbalances between the different classes will *grow* over time. Eventually the most common class will be dozens higher than the rest, then hundreds, then thousands of drops more, growing without limit. However, the proportional imbalances between the different classes will *shrink* over time. The most common class will be 20% higher than the rest, then 10%, then 5%, then 1%, and over larger and larger amounts of drops that value will continue to drop asymptotically towards zero.

    The imbalances get bigger, and they get smaller, depending on how you measure. That's a provable property of random sequences (cf: random walk).
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    Warlockjr said:

    I just awakened my first 6* its havok does his awakened ability make him better?

    It makes his ramp up faster, the higher the sig lvl the faster the ramp up
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    MadEyeMoody_333MadEyeMoody_333 Posts: 192 ★★
    Your Mutant pulls though 🔥🔥
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    ChiliDogChiliDog Posts: 886 ★★★
    I kept track too....

    Suck: 20
    Don't suck: 1
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    DadmammuDadmammu Posts: 37
    With all seriousness between my 5 and six stars (156 champions combined) I have 41 Cosmic Champions in that, and only 4 mutants. My champs are heavy to the sides of Mystic, Cosmic, and Science
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    Rohit_316Rohit_316 Posts: 3,404 ★★★★★
    Mystic - 12
    Science - 17
    Skill - 22
    Cosmic - 22
    Tech -17
    Mutant - 17

    I think it is balanced. Total 107 6* .
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    ScreaminghawkScreaminghawk Posts: 63
    edited September 2022

    My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics;

    Total 6* pulls: 42
    Cosmics : 18
    Skill : 8
    Tech : 6
    Mutant : 5
    Science : 4
    Mystic : 1

    Update,

    Another 6 * crystal, another cosmic. Takes the tally of cosmics to 19 out of 43
    Update,

    Next 6* crystal, another cosmic (carnage). Takes the tally of cosmics to 20 out of 44. I suppose I need to now open only dual 6* crystals going forward to break this cosmic run though these cost 25% more shards.

    Total 6* pulls: 44
    Cosmics : 20
    Skill : 8
    Tech : 6
    Mutant : 5
    Science : 4
    Mystic : 1
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    Real_Madrid_76_2Real_Madrid_76_2 Posts: 3,440 ★★★★★
    During the time of may to July, i had pulled maximum cosmic champs, and some were pretty dang.
    Corvus
    herc dupe
    Knull
    Thor
    Angela
    Venom
    Anihilus
    Proxima
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