6* Champion Pulls - Weirdly skewed odds

My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics; is this normal? How skewed are your pulls?

Total 6* pulls: 42
Cosmics : 18
Skill : 8
Tech : 6
Mutant : 5
Science : 4
Mystic : 1

Cosmics : Airwalker x 2, Annihilus, Cpt Marvel (old), Gamora, Heimdall x 2, Knull, Kamala, Nova x 2, Phoenix, Proxima, Red Goblin, Silver Surfer, Super Skrull, Thor OG, Venom the duck

Skill: Crossbones, DD HK, Elektra, Gwenpool, Hawkeye, Jabari, Shang-chi, Taskmaster

Tech: Doc Oc, Guardian, Punisher 2099, Red skull, Silver centurion, Vision (Age of Ultron)

Mutant: Colossus, Domino, Kitty, Prof X, Sunspot

Science: Abom OG, Joe Fixit, Red Guardian, She hulk

Mystic: Doctor strange

Comments

Denslo500

I have opened about 80 crystals and only have 7 Science champs.
I am heavily skewed to Mystic and Cosmic.

TheInfinty

Science 4
Skill 3
Mutant 6
Tech 3
Cosmic 6
Mystic 0
Fairly even for me

ItsDamien

Same thing happened to me for a very long time. I was heavily (and still am skewed) toward Mutant champs, mix of good and bad. That’s just kind of how RNG goes.

unknown

This content has been removed.

H3t3r

Same happened to me. Took forever to get a single mystic. Now it's balanced out across all my classes. Currently at like 155 or so 6*.

Chatterofforums

My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics; is this normal? How skewed are your pulls?

Total 6* pulls: 42
Cosmics : 18
Skill : 8
Tech : 6
Mutant : 5
Science : 4
Mystic : 1

Cosmics : Airwalker x 2, Annihilus, Cpt Marvel (old), Gamora, Heimdall x 2, Knull, Kamala, Nova x 2, Phoenix, Proxima, Red Goblin, Silver Surfer, Super Skrull, Thor OG, Venom the duck

Skill: Crossbones, DD HK, Elektra, Gwenpool, Hawkeye, Jabari, Shang-chi, Taskmaster

Tech: Doc Oc, Guardian, Punisher 2099, Red skull, Silver centurion, Vision (Age of Ultron)

Mutant: Colossus, Domino, Kitty, Prof X, Sunspot

Science: Abom OG, Joe Fixit, Red Guardian, She hulk

Mystic: Doctor strange

Did you seriously ask if the results of you rng (random results) was normal? If it was, then it wouldn't be rng.

DNA3000

My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics; is this normal?

Is this normal? No. Some variation between classes is normal. What you're seeing is unusual, but probably not exceptionally so. I did this experiment one hundred times, using RNG to roll 42 crystals containing six different classes. The most unbalanced set of 42 drops I saw in one hundred trials was:

[14, 6, 1, 3, 10, 8]

However, that assumes every class will show up equally often. That's not exactly true, because there are different amounts of champions for different classes. It would be impossible to replicate the precise statistics over time without knowing exactly which crystals and exactly when they were opened, but just using the current champion distribution (which includes trophy champs that don't exist in any normal crystal, but to simplify I'm ignoring that for now, as there aren't many of those champs) and retrying the same RNG experiment, the most unbalanced set of pulls I saw out of 100 trials was:

[15, 7, 5, 3, 8, 4]

How often does this happen in random trials (one class showing up at least 18 times out of 42)? About once every 1462. So unusual, but not astronomically rare.

Screaminghawk

My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics; is this normal?
The most unbalanced set of 42 drops I saw in one hundred trials was:

[14, 6, 1, 3, 10, 8]

retrying the same RNG experiment, the most unbalanced set of pulls I saw out of 100 trials was:

[15, 7, 5, 3, 8, 4]

How often does this happen in random trials (one class showing up at least 18 times out of 42)? About once every 1462. So unusual, but not astronomically rare.

That's some really fascinating math, quite insightful. I think the skew is more pronounced considering 3 of my non cosmic pulls were from 1 skill-mutant crystal (Aegon Carina challenge) and 2 nexus 6* crystals

Planning my T5 CCs for rank-ups is a challenge, my T5CC pulls do not follow the same pattern.

SammyDe

Gets a lot more complicated when you consider there are different types of crystals which gives different odds like SQ, featured, dual class, seasonal deal, Abyss nexus, gifting crystals (r.i.p.).
I have 49 champs from 58 pulls which is heavily skewed towards Science:

Science 21 (1 from dual class)
Cosmic 11
Skill 9
Mutant 7 (1 from EOP class nexus)
Tech. 5
Mystic. 4

For the first ~20, I have no mystic and 1 tech. So it only got better as the sample size increases.

Warlockjr

I just awakened my first 6* its havok does his awakened ability make him better?

Stebo_79

Fairly even for me so far with my 6 star roster.

Science 4 (1 duped)
Cosmic 4
Skill 4
Mutant 4
Tech. 4
Mystic. 2

Although with my 5 stars I did go for a very long time not pulling any techs at all, even when I open duals.
It was so bad I had to use an expiring tech awakening gem on og iron man

HamoBlamo51

Mystic: 4
Tech: 3
Cosmic: 3
Mutant: 3
Science: 3
Skill: 1

willrun4adonut

My second 6* pull ever was Hawkeye. I’d go another 47 champs before I got another skill champ, but had 13 mutants.

Ansh_A

Dont quite have the rosters you all have but my results have been extremely uniform.

First 6:
Cosmic, Mystic, Tech, Mutant, Skill and Science

Next 6:
Science, Mystic, Mutant, Tech, Skill, Mystic (dupe)

Next 2:
Mutant and Mystic

Need one Cosmic now for fairly even distribution

Real_Madrid_76_2

Guardian saves the day for all

Gogeta91199

I’ve got 88 6*s out of which
12 science
20 skill
17 cosmic
8 mystic
12 tech
19 mutants

I am really skewed towards mutants, skills and cosmics. And really lacking in mystics

Ercarret

It's just how things are sometimes. I have 126 6* champs yet it was only recently that I even took up my first Skill champ to r3. I have a lower-than-average amount of Skill champions in my roster, and even fewer who I'd consider ranking up. Meanwhile, I have almost twice as many Mystic champions as Skill ones, and basically all of the Mystic champions I care about. It's just how it is sometimes.

Screaminghawk

My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics;

Total 6* pulls: 42
Cosmics : 18
Skill : 8
Tech : 6
Mutant : 5
Science : 4
Mystic : 1

Update,

Another 6 * crystal, another cosmic. Takes the tally of cosmics to 19 out of 43

TitoBandito187

I was very cosmic heavy for the longest time too. Most were terrible as well (no CGR's or Herc's back then, but luckily King Groot got buffed because I couldn't stop pulling him to save my life when he was terrible - so happy he's not now).

I got to 54 6* crystals before my 1st skill champ landed and almost no dupes (besides King Groot and 3x Beast naturally at the time too). I was ecstatic when it finally happened, for a small moment, until I realized it was just Squirrel Girl. RNG stinks at times. My saving grace was a Nexus pick shortly after that got me MoleMan, then I got 4 other dud skill champs (including a Squirrel Girl dupe) in a row "naturally".

Now I have 106 6* (along with many, many dupes) and 18 are skill - more than my science (16), mutant (13) and not far below the other classes: cosmic (19), tech (21) and mystic (19). It took some time, but it averaged out.

Ortoun

I have between 14 and 17 of every class but skill which has 23

TheCaptain412

51 6* pulls, plus Unstoppable Colossus. Totals are:

Cosmic - 14, one dupe (Champion)
Science - 10
Skill - 9
Mutant - 8
Mystic - 6 (including UC), one dupe (Maw)
Tech - 3

Fair distribution across the middle, one somewhat high outlier, one really low outlier. My stats classes from college tell me this is probably pretty normal.

LeNoirFaineant

It will even out over time. I've had largely lopsided classes before but it's fairly even now. This doesn't account for dupes and nexus crystals, but I have:

Science - 23
Skill - 21
Mutant - 17
Cosmic - 26
Tech - 24
Mystic - 20

DNA3000

It will even out over time.

Technically, it doesn't have to, at least not in an absolute sense.

The idea of reversion to the mean is often misunderstood. Some people think that the more ones you roll on a six sided die, the more likely it is to roll anything but a one on the next roll. But that's false: if the die isn't loaded and the roller not cheating, then the rolls are independent. If you roll five ones in a row, the odds of rolling one again are still one in six. The results won't "even out" over time. If they did, that would prove the die was non-random.

What does happen is the percentages will even out over time. Suppose, just to exaggerate a bit, that someone were to pull 20 cosmics in a row from 6* basic crystals. You would *not* expect them to pull far fewer cosmics over the next few hundred rolls. You would expect that that 20 cosmic imbalance would persist over time, because the crystals don't remember. What you would expect is the drops would be random from that point forward, as if those pulls didn't happen.

Over hundreds of pulls, and then thousands, that original weird anomaly of 20 cosmics would become less and less noticeable in the statistics, until finally it would be lost in the noise when we look back at the last ten thousand crystals and see each class having about 1700 drops, plus or minus. The long term averages eventually "drown out" any statistical blips. In fact, in a very real sense that's what statistics is: the long term averages drowning out the effects of every single individual roll.

This is a difficult idea for some people to wrap their minds around, but statistically speaking two things are true when it comes to this situation of opening random crystals that contain classes of items. One, the numeric imbalances between the different classes will *grow* over time. Eventually the most common class will be dozens higher than the rest, then hundreds, then thousands of drops more, growing without limit. However, the proportional imbalances between the different classes will *shrink* over time. The most common class will be 20% higher than the rest, then 10%, then 5%, then 1%, and over larger and larger amounts of drops that value will continue to drop asymptotically towards zero.

The imbalances get bigger, and they get smaller, depending on how you measure. That's a provable property of random sequences (cf: random walk).

FreestyleFetus

I just awakened my first 6* its havok does his awakened ability make him better?

It makes his ramp up faster, the higher the sig lvl the faster the ramp up

MadEyeMoody_333

Your Mutant pulls though 🔥🔥

ChiliDog

I kept track too....

Suck: 20
Don't suck: 1

Dadmammu

With all seriousness between my 5 and six stars (156 champions combined) I have 41 Cosmic Champions in that, and only 4 mutants. My champs are heavy to the sides of Mystic, Cosmic, and Science

Rohit_316

Mystic - 12
Science - 17
Skill - 22
Cosmic - 22
Tech -17
Mutant - 17

I think it is balanced. Total 107 6* .

Screaminghawk

My 6* Pulls are skewed predominantly towards cosmics;

Total 6* pulls: 42
Cosmics : 18
Skill : 8
Tech : 6
Mutant : 5
Science : 4
Mystic : 1
Update,

Another 6 * crystal, another cosmic. Takes the tally of cosmics to 19 out of 43

Update,

Next 6* crystal, another cosmic (carnage). Takes the tally of cosmics to 20 out of 44. I suppose I need to now open only dual 6* crystals going forward to break this cosmic run though these cost 25% more shards.

Total 6* pulls: 44
Cosmics : 20
Skill : 8
Tech : 6
Mutant : 5
Science : 4
Mystic : 1

Real_Madrid_76_2

During the time of may to July, i had pulled maximum cosmic champs, and some were pretty dang.
Corvus
herc dupe
Knull
Thor
Angela
Venom
Anihilus
Proxima