No bleed or poison Vanquishing blow?

Are we to assume this is working as intended that they haven't been rolled?

Comments

Oh, it's definitely working as intended. RNG is streaky. That's why it's a bad way to do something like this.

The way that this kind of system should always be set up is that the longer we go without a certain event, the more likely it is to happen. It's easy to set up, you just keep a list of all the events, and every day that an event doesn't happen, you raise the odds for that one a little bit. Whenever one happens, it's odds go back to the lowest level. That way it still isn't completely predictable, but the ones that haven't been seen in awhile always have the best odds.

Just depending on pure RNG is a terrible system that will almost always give results like what we're seeing now.

JoshHam

I’ve been wondering when someone else was going to notice this. It’s been more than 2 weeks without either one of those happening. The odds of that happening are pretty low I believe. Especially being as one of the conditions they said they have on this event is that the any vanquishing blows occurring in the past 5 events won’t repeat. There are only 10 differently possibilities and 5 will be taken out. So there’s a 60% chance to not get a bleed or poison event, which is fairly high for an idividual day. However, for that streak to continue is just crazy.

KHAOS

They prob left it out so people don’t commit “suicide” with LC/DE lol. They should change it to kill via damage over time so that it includes bleed/poison/shock/incinerate/coldsnap

JasonMBryant

JoshHam wrote: »

I’ve been wondering when someone else was going to notice this. It’s been more than 2 weeks without either one of those happening. The odds of that happening are pretty low I believe. Especially being as one of the conditions they said they have on this event is that the any vanquishing blows occurring in the past 5 events won’t repeat. There are only 10 differently possibilities and 5 will be taken out. So there’s a 60% chance to not get a bleed or poison event, which is fairly high for an idividual day. However, for that streak to continue is just crazy.

Yes, but not the way you're thinking.

If someone had said, "I think we'll go a long time without bleed and poison," before this month started, then your math would be right. That particular combination is low odds, so guessing it ahead of time would have been impressive.

However, the odds of *something* being skipped for a really long time are actually pretty high. It could have been that we went two weeks without Special 1 and Special 2. It could have been that we went two weeks without Light Attack and Medium Attack. Or Heavy Attack and Special 3. Or Shock and Poison, Bleed and Light attack, Medium Attack and Poison, etc, etc.

Random is streaky. With all the different VBs that they have to choose from, it would actually be unusual for a Random Number Generator to NOT skip one or two things.

JoshHam

JasonMBryant wrote: »

JoshHam wrote: »

I’ve been wondering when someone else was going to notice this. It’s been more than 2 weeks without either one of those happening. The odds of that happening are pretty low I believe. Especially being as one of the conditions they said they have on this event is that the any vanquishing blows occurring in the past 5 events won’t repeat. There are only 10 differently possibilities and 5 will be taken out. So there’s a 60% chance to not get a bleed or poison event, which is fairly high for an idividual day. However, for that streak to continue is just crazy.

Yes, but not the way you're thinking.

If someone had said, "I think we'll go a long time without bleed and poison," before this month started, then your math would be right. That particular combination is low odds, so guessing it ahead of time would have been impressive.

However, the odds of *something* being skipped for a really long time are actually pretty high. It could have been that we went two weeks without Special 1 and Special 2. It could have been that we went two weeks without Light Attack and Medium Attack. Or Heavy Attack and Special 3. Or Shock and Poison, Bleed and Light attack, Medium Attack and Poison, etc, etc.

Random is streaky. With all the different VBs that they have to choose from, it would actually be unusual for a Random Number Generator to NOT skip one or two things.

Yes, but if we assume that the VB’s follow a uniform distribution meaning that all have the same probability of occurring after the last five are take out, both bleed and poison have a 1/5 chance separately to occur. That means that there is a 3/5 chance that neither occur for each new event given that bleed or poison has been chosen in the past 5 events. That being said, since each day is technically independent (to a certain point) from the previous day, we can then continue to multiple 3/5 by each other for each day that doesn’t have either bleed or poison. For example, 2 days without either given that they haven’t happened in the previous 5 days is (0.6)*(0.6) = 0.36 and so on. Currently, we are on day 12 (nov 19 - nov 2 + 5 days for the condition they have) which gives us (0.6)^12 = 0.002. So a very small chance of happening.

JasonMBryant

It's a very small chance of this very specific thing happening.

There's a very large chance or some combination of two events not happening.

If there had been a bleed event and a poison event, but there hadn't been a special 1 and a special 2 event, we'd be having this exact same conversation right now.

Get a 10 sided die. See how many rolls it takes to get every number, 1 through 10. The odds are very good that you will get several repeats before you get every number at least once.

This is how random works. Random is streaky. Random is unsatisfying. If you get consistent, satisfying results, it's almost certainly not random.

JoshHam

I understand how randomness works. Actually, rolling a 10 sided die a large number of times will actually get you a pretty even distribution. So you are incorrect in that you won’t get consistent results. It all depends on the number of times you roll the die. Anyways, besides the point. The fact that we haven’t had a bleed or poison event occur is very unlikely given the circumstances.

Jackie2Cokes

Incinerate yet again, the odds of 3/4 Incinerate and no bleed is highly suspect. I doubt that bleed was in this RNG list.

My prediction is that it will miraculously show up after maintenance tomorrow.

shchong2

Jackie2Cokes wrote: »

My prediction is that it will miraculously show up after maintenance tomorrow.

LOL I have the same suspicion, that someone is trying to secretly fix some open-secret bugs that no one is willing to admit, but instead they will secretly fix them hoping no one will notice. After all, players are dumb in the eyes of the developers, right?

Would love to have BLEED and POISON kill VANQUISHING BLOW rolling out soon. Better still, like the idea of KHAOS about "kill via damage over time vanquishing blow"

buffajr

I would argue that it’s not random at all. There are a ton of champs that cause bleed and a decent amount that poison. My thinking is that having the vanquishing blow event include these DOT options too many people would hit all the milestones.

buffajr

Hope I’m wrong

gohard123

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1334712/Humans-concept-randomness-hard-understand.html

Just to help with understanding randomness. This might not be the case in this situation but we do not know.. They should have applied a different system.. Maybe on that considers the amount of times a "vanquishing blow" has been activated and reduces its chance to be activated in the next number of times.

Jackie2Cokes

buffajr wrote: »

I would argue that it’s not random at all. There are a ton of champs that cause bleed and a decent amount that poison. My thinking is that having the vanquishing blow event include these DOT options too many people would hit all the milestones.

@buffajr I disagree. Every single champ has a heavy, medium, sp1, sp2, etc. yet they run solo events for those attacks.

Makes no sense that a bleed vanquishing blow has not come up yet.

NinjaWarrior99

buffajr wrote: »

I would argue that it’s not random at all. There are a ton of champs that cause bleed and a decent amount that poison. My thinking is that having the vanquishing blow event include these DOT options too many people would hit all the milestones.

i agree. i think they deemed it too easy especially with bleed and so so they left it out.

Jackie2Cokes

No mod going to weigh in on this? The entire monthly event is about to expire and 20% of the vanquishing blows listed have yet to trigger.

No way that I believe this is an RNG issue.

RagamugginGunner

Working as intended?
Maybe you should be more active?
What device are you using?

TBH, Shock and Incinerate are such garbage.

Drummer16

uhhh there is a 2/8 (1/4) chance of getting poison or bleed on a particular day. There have been 24 days. The probability of NOT getting poison or bleed is 1 - (3/4)^24 = .001003.

That means the odds that we have not seen them yet is .1003%. RNG MY ARSE.

Jmoneysteck

there is no possibility of getting a poison or bleed one

shchong2

Statistically wise it DOES NOT make any sense, but as usual we'll NOT hear from the Mod or the Developers about them screwing it, and very soon the whole things will be over and they'll move on despite we have provided facts and complaint about this for an entire month.

This type of game quality and mod support has become a norm especially after v12.0 and after Kabam is taken over by the Korean company, at least this is my perception, although I could be wrong.

Let's revisit this thread again by the end of this Valor event, and see if anyone from Kabam even care to bother, perhaps by then the Mod will close this thread saying it is NO longer relevant as the event has been concluded AS INTENDED.

I'm really looking forward to at least experiencing ONE or TWO of the BLEED and POISON kill events, as what has been advertized, but looks like my wish will not come thru

SgtSlaughter78

Exact same thing happened with the Guardians of the Galaxy even when Star Lord wasn’t triggering. Exact same thing.

The next day - literally the next day - after a mod commented, Star Lord appears.

Magrailothos

I'm pretty sure this is 'working as intended'.

Re-reading the original announcement of Vanquishing Blow quests, there is no suggestion that these are generated randomly - https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com

The fact we haven't seen one commonly inflicted form of DoT could be seen as statistical chance. Not seeing the two commonest forms of DoT seems substantially less likely.

I've complained elsewhere about the difficulty of finishing an opponent of with Incinerate and and Shock; as these typically inflict far less damage than poison or bleed. But i have to admit that even I've got champs that could inflict that damage if I wanted to.

Is immunity the missing issue? No opponent is immune to a light/medium/heavy attack or Shock; and very few are immune to Incinerate.

It's entirely possible that Kabam's team decided not to use Bleed or Poison damage because it was felt there would be resentment about the number of champions immune to bleed and poison making it harder to complete.

I'd say that would be an understandable (but wrong) decision.

It would be nice to hear from a mod on this...

LoPresti

Definitely not working as intended, if you read the original announcement it says that a vanquish blow cannot repeat itself within a streak of 5. Meaning that you can't get:

Incinerate, Shock, Special 2, Incinerate (again).

And we have had appearances like these happen a lot.

Jackie2Cokes

Drummer16 wrote: »

uhhh there is a 2/8 (1/4) chance of getting poison or bleed on a particular day. There have been 24 days. The probability of NOT getting poison or bleed is 1 - (3/4)^24 = .001003.

That means the odds that we have not seen them yet is .1003%. RNG MY ARSE.

There are 10 different events...light, medium, heavy, sp1, sp2, sp3, incinerate, bleed, poison and shock

How are you get a 1/4 chance?

Jackie2Cokes

@Kabam Miike you have any information for us on this thread?

Drummer16

Jackie2Cokes wrote: »

Drummer16 wrote: »

uhhh there is a 2/8 (1/4) chance of getting poison or bleed on a particular day. There have been 24 days. The probability of NOT getting poison or bleed is 1 - (3/4)^24 = .001003.

That means the odds that we have not seen them yet is .1003%. RNG MY ARSE.

There are 10 different events...light, medium, heavy, sp1, sp2, sp3, incinerate, bleed, poison and shock

How are you get a 1/4 chance?

Sorry, then it's 2/10 which is 1/5. So, assuming 24 Vanquishing Blow events, the probability to not see bleed or poison is simply calculated by (1-1/5)^24... so it's .47% chance to not see them yet. I mean, either way, it's EXTREMELY unlikely to not see either of these after a sample size of 24. This means it is not working...

Compare this to Hero Use, Level Up, Event Quest Completion, and Arena wins....How often do you not see one of these for 24 days in a row? The odds are EXTREMELY unlikely, which proves that this is bugged.

I don't want to hear about RNG being streaky or any stuff like that when this sample size is high enough. It's broken.

JoshHam

Drummer16 wrote: »

Jackie2Cokes wrote: »

Drummer16 wrote: »

uhhh there is a 2/8 (1/4) chance of getting poison or bleed on a particular day. There have been 24 days. The probability of NOT getting poison or bleed is 1 - (3/4)^24 = .001003.

That means the odds that we have not seen them yet is .1003%. RNG MY ARSE.

There are 10 different events...light, medium, heavy, sp1, sp2, sp3, incinerate, bleed, poison and shock

How are you get a 1/4 chance?

Sorry, then it's 2/10 which is 1/5. So, assuming 24 Vanquishing Blow events, the probability to not see bleed or poison is simply calculated by (1-1/5)^24... so it's .47% chance to not see them yet. I mean, either way, it's EXTREMELY unlikely to not see either of these after a sample size of 24. This means it is not working...

Compare this to Hero Use, Level Up, Event Quest Completion, and Arena wins....How often do you not see one of these for 24 days in a row? The odds are EXTREMELY unlikely, which proves that this is bugged.

I don't want to hear about RNG being streaky or any stuff like that when this sample size is high enough. It's broken.

You’re not taking into account of the rule that the last 5 won’t be repeated, even though it might not actually be working. So there’s a 1/5th chance per day for a bleed or poison and 2/5 for either happening. Sorry. Just wanted to chime in on probability.

unknown

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Jackie2Cokes

Sweet!!! Another incinerate Vanquishing blow....said no one ever

Mannysmoker

I just want this event to be over and hope they don’t release anything like this ever again, I’m burned and legit sick and tired of doing Rttl chapter 1 over and over since this event started, this finishing events are a snooze fest after you do the 3rd in a row..they really want me to work hard just to get a 4* champ that
Most likely won’t add nothin to my roaster..

Like legit, you have to do 554 matches on arena to get the final milestone on using 4*, I feel sorry for ppl that don’t have Hyperion & nebula for those events and trying to get those final points...

shchong2

Checking back this post ... Today is Nov-27, and we have another INCINERATE, but sadly still no poison or bleed

With the event coming to an end very soon, and judging the current responsiveness and trend, I would assume this "bug" will be ignored until it became irrelevant ...