Paragon Drop Rate Lies

Since the Paragon crystals have come out I’ve opened over 200 crystals every which way and have not gotten a single 7 star. The drop date says 1 pct which is an obvious mathematical lie. Hopefully you all have better luck than myself. Submitted a ticket wanting answers and the typical talk in circles bs. 8 years playing and only getting worse.

Comments

Colinwhitworth69

That’s now how it works.

You have a one percent chance each pull. Previous pulls have no impact on the next.

You’re a victim of unfortunate RNG. Hope your luck improves.

Fro

So it’s Kabam math basically.

Pikolu

It is basic statistics, you should take that class when you got a moment

MrSakuragi

It’s your not understanding probabilities

[Deleted User]

I actually heard that if you open 100 more you'll get a guaranteed 7* Groot. You're welcome.

Fro

I’m sure you are technically correct but it’s maddening when 3 spins (in a row it stops on a 7 and rolls to the next one or falls between 2 7s. I’ve seen it come to screeching halt. Just poor luck I suppose.

Colinwhitworth69

We’ve all been there.

GroundedWisdom

I'd like to know what math that is.
1% chance on each Crystal means there's a 99% chance you will not get a 7*.
Each time.

Stellar

It's basic Kabam statistic !

if your opponent has 1% chance to evade, he will evade half of your attacks !
But if you have 1% chance to get a 7 stars, you will only get one real percent chance, no more !

SirGamesBond

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2302249/#Comment_2302249
Topic is over. Move along folks.

Feuerschwer

The actual math is, for a 1% chance, about 36% of players opening 100 paragon crystals will get 0 7* (0.99^100). For 200 paragon crystals, 13.4% of players will get 0 7*, which is about 1 in 8. So OP is unlucky but not unbelievably so.

SummonerNR

And on top of that, what the results are on the spots 1 spot away, or what stutters and jumps over right at the last second, **IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT ONLY**

The Reel is NOT like a physical reel, where the stickers on each spot on the reel are fixed, and it slowly comes to a stop.

The outcome is actually determined at the time you start spinning the reel (see other posts confirming this, as well as by Kabam). Note, your teammates looking at your Alliance's Feed Pane can see the result of your pull PRIOR to your Reel actually being told to stop spinning by you.

The spinning sometimes at the end has to become re-Sync’d with that already determined outcome at the last second, thus sometimes looks like a skip.
In addition, the champs shown before and after have NO EFFECT on the outcome. Again, they are just for entertainment purposes only.

Same for the frequency of seeing higher or lower Star Variety champs scrolling across the Reel (or even whether some individual champs may or may not even appear in the Reel).
During spinning, you may indeed see a higher propensities for a higher Star that what the odds state. THAT DOESN'T MATTER.
It is ONLY the final outcome champ that has been calculated via the stated Odds, and from among the champs that are included in the Pool for that crystal.

Terminatrix

It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

Crimson8399

The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.

[Deleted User]

Yes, and in this case the group is the 4 possible star levels you can pull. Each individual crystal has a percentage chance to pull each individual star level. There's literally nothing wrong about that. You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.

Crimson8399

That’s exactly my point though, percentages are not based of individual items. I can’t eat a candy bar and go I didn’t like that let me eat that same candy bar I just ate 100 times and see how many times I like it. I have to eat 99 other bars and base a decision or percentage off the total eaten. I can’t open one crystal and go I got a 4 star, let me open that same crystal 99 more time to see if I get a 7 star. I have to open more crystals.

[Deleted User]

That candy bar analogy is just not related. You can't roll a dice 600 times and guarantee that you get each possible number 100 times. That's this. You can't guarantee that you open 100 crystals and get each possible star level the exact number of times equal to the percentage chance to pull them. You could roll that dice and get just the number 1 all 600 times. Just like you could spin 100 Paragon crystals and pull 4*s all 100 times.

Crimson8399

I feel this is going nowhere. Percentages are based on a multitude of things not just one. The point I’m trying to make is the notion of percentage based results from these crystals are simply not true. Please be wary when purchasing these thinking you have a legit chance based what is displayed because you don’t regardless of what anyone says.

[Deleted User]

You don't understand how this works. To say it's just not true, just isn't true. They explain all of this in a short description in the crystal. If you still don't understand it, that's on you. Like I said, you know what you paid for, there's no deception here.

Crimson8399

I actually do understand. If you go back to your dice reference you say roll a die 600 times you won’t get each number 100 times, I agree. But the opportunity to find that out is there because I CAN reroll that die as many time as I want to see what the number lands on therefor making my conclusion of how many times each came up based on the total number of rolls. I can’t reroll a single crystal.

[Deleted User]

But if you roll 600 dice, it's the exact same as rerolling the same dice 600 times. Just as rolling 100 Paragon crystals has the same chance as rerolling the same crystal 100 times.

IvarTheBoneless

There's no difference between crystals. One die roll = one crystal

Kerneas

Oh my god everyone come here! 1/1 000 000 players opened 200 crystals (outta tens of million that were opened), and that is a rock solid proof that drop rates are a lie.

Surely the experience of 0.0001% players opening 0.002% of crystals has enough statistical significance to prove anything.

I hope you get my point: you are a single player who opened a bunch of crystals, but that's not nearly enough to make any conclusion regarding rng. If you threw a dice once, can you say it's rigged?

(Just ftr, the percentages are based on one million players and 10 million paragon crystals being opened)

xLunatiXx

Some people need to follow maths classes

SmasherM86

No, the crystals are rigged for sure, just open a paragon daily crystal, and you will see it clear, the reel in full with 6 star champs and it lands exactly were Kabam wants, Also, some accounts has better RNG in general and some worse...

Kerneas

If crystals drop something the developers don't want, I think that is called a bug

IvarTheBoneless

Hmmm almost like it's... random... :thinking_emoji:

Normax_X

i got 3 out of 45 u dont see me sending a ticket that its too high lol, its only a problem if yall r getting unlucky then u complain

UnOriginal

Yes but It doesnt show you the chances i think we all know that despite all of those 6 stars the chances are low (and the crystal is free) and apparently the reel is just for fun kabam just wanted to change the reel for some reason

Owl_0wl

Paragon crystal rate lies - but for the better for me, opened 60 crystals, 2 7*s