Paragon Drop Rate Lies

FroFro Member Posts: 5
Since the Paragon crystals have come out I’ve opened over 200 crystals every which way and have not gotten a single 7 star. The drop date says 1 pct which is an obvious mathematical lie. Hopefully you all have better luck than myself. Submitted a ticket wanting answers and the typical talk in circles bs. 8 years playing and only getting worse.
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Comments

  • FeuerschwerFeuerschwer Member Posts: 375 ★★★
    The actual math is, for a 1% chance, about 36% of players opening 100 paragon crystals will get 0 7* (0.99^100). For 200 paragon crystals, 13.4% of players will get 0 7*, which is about 1 in 8. So OP is unlucky but not unbelievably so.
  • Crimson8399Crimson8399 Member Posts: 762 ★★★

    It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

    Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

    The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
  • It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

    Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

    The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
    Yes, and in this case the group is the 4 possible star levels you can pull. Each individual crystal has a percentage chance to pull each individual star level. There's literally nothing wrong about that. You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
  • Crimson8399Crimson8399 Member Posts: 762 ★★★
    edited June 2023

    It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

    Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

    The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
    Yes, and in this case the group is the 4 possible star levels you can pull. Each individual crystal has a percentage chance to pull each individual star level. There's literally nothing wrong about that. You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
    That’s exactly my point though, percentages are not based of individual items. I can’t eat a candy bar and go I didn’t like that let me eat that same candy bar I just ate 100 times and see how many times I like it. I have to eat 99 other bars and base a decision or percentage off the total eaten. I can’t open one crystal and go I got a 4 star, let me open that same crystal 99 more time to see if I get a 7 star. I have to open more crystals.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited June 2023

    It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

    Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

    The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
    Yes, and in this case the group is the 4 possible star levels you can pull. Each individual crystal has a percentage chance to pull each individual star level. There's literally nothing wrong about that. You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
    That’s exactly my point though, percentages are not based of individual items. I can’t eat a candy bar and go I didn’t like that let me eat that same candy bar I just ate 100 times and see how many times I like it. I have to eat 99 other bars and base a decision or percentage off the total eaten. I can’t open one crystal and go I got a 4 star, let me open that same crystal 99 more time to see if I get a 7 star. I have to open more crystals.
    That candy bar analogy is just not related. You can't roll a dice 600 times and guarantee that you get each possible number 100 times. That's this. You can't guarantee that you open 100 crystals and get each possible star level the exact number of times equal to the percentage chance to pull them. You could roll that dice and get just the number 1 all 600 times. Just like you could spin 100 Paragon crystals and pull 4*s all 100 times.
  • Crimson8399Crimson8399 Member Posts: 762 ★★★

    It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

    Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

    The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
    Yes, and in this case the group is the 4 possible star levels you can pull. Each individual crystal has a percentage chance to pull each individual star level. There's literally nothing wrong about that. You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
    That’s exactly my point though, percentages are not based of individual items. I can’t eat a candy bar and go I didn’t like that let me eat that same candy bar I just ate 100 times and see how many times I like it. I have to eat 99 other bars and base a decision or percentage off the total eaten. I can’t open one crystal and go I got a 4 star, let me open that same crystal 99 more time to see if I get a 7 star. I have to open more crystals.
    That candy bar analogy is just not related. You can't roll a dice 600 times and guarantee that you get each possible number 100 times. That's this. You can't guarantee that you open 100 crystals and get each possible star level the exact number of times equal to the percentage chance to pull them. You could roll that dice and get just the number 1 all 600 times. Just like you could spin 100 Paragon crystals and pull 4*s all 100 times.
    I feel this is going nowhere. Percentages are based on a multitude of things not just one. The point I’m trying to make is the notion of percentage based results from these crystals are simply not true. Please be wary when purchasing these thinking you have a legit chance based what is displayed because you don’t regardless of what anyone says.
  • It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

    Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

    The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
    Yes, and in this case the group is the 4 possible star levels you can pull. Each individual crystal has a percentage chance to pull each individual star level. There's literally nothing wrong about that. You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
    That’s exactly my point though, percentages are not based of individual items. I can’t eat a candy bar and go I didn’t like that let me eat that same candy bar I just ate 100 times and see how many times I like it. I have to eat 99 other bars and base a decision or percentage off the total eaten. I can’t open one crystal and go I got a 4 star, let me open that same crystal 99 more time to see if I get a 7 star. I have to open more crystals.
    That candy bar analogy is just not related. You can't roll a dice 600 times and guarantee that you get each possible number 100 times. That's this. You can't guarantee that you open 100 crystals and get each possible star level the exact number of times equal to the percentage chance to pull them. You could roll that dice and get just the number 1 all 600 times. Just like you could spin 100 Paragon crystals and pull 4*s all 100 times.
    I feel this is going nowhere. Percentages are based on a multitude of things not just one. The point I’m trying to make is the notion of percentage based results from these crystals are simply not true. Please be wary when purchasing these thinking you have a legit chance based what is displayed because you don’t regardless of what anyone says.
    You don't understand how this works. To say it's just not true, just isn't true. They explain all of this in a short description in the crystal. If you still don't understand it, that's on you. Like I said, you know what you paid for, there's no deception here.
  • Crimson8399Crimson8399 Member Posts: 762 ★★★

    It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

    Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

    The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
    Yes, and in this case the group is the 4 possible star levels you can pull. Each individual crystal has a percentage chance to pull each individual star level. There's literally nothing wrong about that. You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
    That’s exactly my point though, percentages are not based of individual items. I can’t eat a candy bar and go I didn’t like that let me eat that same candy bar I just ate 100 times and see how many times I like it. I have to eat 99 other bars and base a decision or percentage off the total eaten. I can’t open one crystal and go I got a 4 star, let me open that same crystal 99 more time to see if I get a 7 star. I have to open more crystals.
    That candy bar analogy is just not related. You can't roll a dice 600 times and guarantee that you get each possible number 100 times. That's this. You can't guarantee that you open 100 crystals and get each possible star level the exact number of times equal to the percentage chance to pull them. You could roll that dice and get just the number 1 all 600 times. Just like you could spin 100 Paragon crystals and pull 4*s all 100 times.
    I feel this is going nowhere. Percentages are based on a multitude of things not just one. The point I’m trying to make is the notion of percentage based results from these crystals are simply not true. Please be wary when purchasing these thinking you have a legit chance based what is displayed because you don’t regardless of what anyone says.
    You don't understand how this works. To say it's just not true, just isn't true. They explain all of this in a short description in the crystal. If you still don't understand it, that's on you. Like I said, you know what you paid for, there's no deception here.
    I actually do understand. If you go back to your dice reference you say roll a die 600 times you won’t get each number 100 times, I agree. But the opportunity to find that out is there because I CAN reroll that die as many time as I want to see what the number lands on therefor making my conclusion of how many times each came up based on the total number of rolls. I can’t reroll a single crystal.
  • It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

    Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

    The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
    Yes, and in this case the group is the 4 possible star levels you can pull. Each individual crystal has a percentage chance to pull each individual star level. There's literally nothing wrong about that. You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
    That’s exactly my point though, percentages are not based of individual items. I can’t eat a candy bar and go I didn’t like that let me eat that same candy bar I just ate 100 times and see how many times I like it. I have to eat 99 other bars and base a decision or percentage off the total eaten. I can’t open one crystal and go I got a 4 star, let me open that same crystal 99 more time to see if I get a 7 star. I have to open more crystals.
    That candy bar analogy is just not related. You can't roll a dice 600 times and guarantee that you get each possible number 100 times. That's this. You can't guarantee that you open 100 crystals and get each possible star level the exact number of times equal to the percentage chance to pull them. You could roll that dice and get just the number 1 all 600 times. Just like you could spin 100 Paragon crystals and pull 4*s all 100 times.
    I feel this is going nowhere. Percentages are based on a multitude of things not just one. The point I’m trying to make is the notion of percentage based results from these crystals are simply not true. Please be wary when purchasing these thinking you have a legit chance based what is displayed because you don’t regardless of what anyone says.
    You don't understand how this works. To say it's just not true, just isn't true. They explain all of this in a short description in the crystal. If you still don't understand it, that's on you. Like I said, you know what you paid for, there's no deception here.
    I actually do understand. If you go back to your dice reference you say roll a die 600 times you won’t get each number 100 times, I agree. But the opportunity to find that out is there because I CAN reroll that die as many time as I want to see what the number lands on therefor making my conclusion of how many times each came up based on the total number of rolls. I can’t reroll a single crystal.
    But if you roll 600 dice, it's the exact same as rerolling the same dice 600 times. Just as rolling 100 Paragon crystals has the same chance as rerolling the same crystal 100 times.
  • IvarTheBonelessIvarTheBoneless Member Posts: 1,276 ★★★★

    It didn't lie, you just understood it differently. You have a 1% CHANCE, PER CRYSTAL, to get a 7*. That also means you have 99% chance to get a 4* lol.

    Again...1% CHANCE....PER...CRYSTAL.

    The problem is percentages are not based on singular items they are based on a group. Kabams definition of percentage is wrong.
    Yes, and in this case the group is the 4 possible star levels you can pull. Each individual crystal has a percentage chance to pull each individual star level. There's literally nothing wrong about that. You seem to think that these percentages should guarantee you a 7* for opening 100 crystals due to their 1% chance, which is one possible way of handling percentages, but isn't how these crystals work and there's no reason to believe they do work this way.
    That’s exactly my point though, percentages are not based of individual items. I can’t eat a candy bar and go I didn’t like that let me eat that same candy bar I just ate 100 times and see how many times I like it. I have to eat 99 other bars and base a decision or percentage off the total eaten. I can’t open one crystal and go I got a 4 star, let me open that same crystal 99 more time to see if I get a 7 star. I have to open more crystals.
    That candy bar analogy is just not related. You can't roll a dice 600 times and guarantee that you get each possible number 100 times. That's this. You can't guarantee that you open 100 crystals and get each possible star level the exact number of times equal to the percentage chance to pull them. You could roll that dice and get just the number 1 all 600 times. Just like you could spin 100 Paragon crystals and pull 4*s all 100 times.
    I feel this is going nowhere. Percentages are based on a multitude of things not just one. The point I’m trying to make is the notion of percentage based results from these crystals are simply not true. Please be wary when purchasing these thinking you have a legit chance based what is displayed because you don’t regardless of what anyone says.
    You don't understand how this works. To say it's just not true, just isn't true. They explain all of this in a short description in the crystal. If you still don't understand it, that's on you. Like I said, you know what you paid for, there's no deception here.
    I actually do understand. If you go back to your dice reference you say roll a die 600 times you won’t get each number 100 times, I agree. But the opportunity to find that out is there because I CAN reroll that die as many time as I want to see what the number lands on therefor making my conclusion of how many times each came up based on the total number of rolls. I can’t reroll a single crystal.
    There's no difference between crystals. One die roll = one crystal
  • SmasherM86SmasherM86 Member Posts: 79
    No, the crystals are rigged for sure, just open a paragon daily crystal, and you will see it clear, the reel in full with 6 star champs and it lands exactly were Kabam wants, Also, some accounts has better RNG in general and some worse...
  • KerneasKerneas Member Posts: 3,825 ★★★★★

    No, the crystals are rigged for sure, just open a paragon daily crystal, and you will see it clear, the reel in full with 6 star champs and it lands exactly were Kabam wants, Also, some accounts has better RNG in general and some worse...

    If crystals drop something the developers don't want, I think that is called a bug
  • IvarTheBonelessIvarTheBoneless Member Posts: 1,276 ★★★★

    some accounts has better RNG in general and some worse...

    Hmmm almost like it's... random... :thinking_emoji:

  • Normax_XNormax_X Member Posts: 555 ★★★
    i got 3 out of 45 u dont see me sending a ticket that its too high lol, its only a problem if yall r getting unlucky then u complain
  • UnOriginalUnOriginal Member Posts: 729 ★★★

    No, the crystals are rigged for sure, just open a paragon daily crystal, and you will see it clear, the reel in full with 6 star champs and it lands exactly were Kabam wants, Also, some accounts has better RNG in general and some worse...

    Yes but It doesnt show you the chances i think we all know that despite all of those 6 stars the chances are low (and the crystal is free) and apparently the reel is just for fun kabam just wanted to change the reel for some reason
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