Uncollected arena crystals - Expected units

Hey there,

here’s the annual conspiracy theory of low unit drop rates before the cyber event… Normally I calculate with about 15 units on average per uncollected arena crystal…

Just opened 57 of them and got a total of 450 units… That’s not even 8 units on average

I mean, I know it’s RNG, but JESUS!

What’s your expected average units for these crystals?

Comments

ahmynuts

@DNA3000 Whatever the bat-signal equivalent for you has been raised

Ghostboytjie

I just opened 4 regular ones (8k bc) and got 120 units. Its rng

G-Hun-Gear

I just opened 4 regular ones (8k bc) and got 120 units. Its rng

Yeah, I know… I am just aiming to get as many battleships as possible by Friday and be a bit luckier, in order to even out my average…

Still feels bad and I wanted to rant…

G-Hun-Gear

@DNA3000 Whatever the bat-signal equivalent for you has been raised

Oh, yeah, there was a scientific post by @DNA3000 about this a while ago, wasn’t there?

Also, congratulations on being “un-warned”…

DNA3000

Hey there,

here’s the annual conspiracy theory of low unit drop rates before the cyber event… Normally I calculate with about 15 units on average per uncollected arena crystal…

Just opened 57 of them and got a total of 450 units… That’s not even 8 units on average

I mean, I know it’s RNG, but JESUS!

What’s your expected average units for these crystals?

1800 per million BC worth of arena crystals, no matter which crystals you pick, is the calculated statistical average. My overall measured average across all my data is about 1900, which is within the margin of error more or less. So the statistical average per UC crystal is about 18.

57 UC crystals is 570000 BC worth, which on average would generate 1026 units. But 57 crystals is a very small number and RNG will vary wildy. For reference, the most I ever got from a batch of 100 TB crystals is 900 units, and the most I received was 2850 units. If I split my batches down the middle, the worst batch of 50 contained 300 units.

TB crystals have even wilder variance, because you open fewer crystals per one million BC. My lowest one million BC batch (20 crystals) is 375 units, and my highest is 5250.

There's no correlation in my data between proximity to one of the big sale days and the amount of units. I try to open batches close to big sale days specifically, and the batch of 20 TB crystals I opened just before J4 2023 (which is also one million BC worth) contained 2625 units. Just before CW 2022: 1125 units. Before J4 2022, 1500 units and 2625 units (two batches in June). And just before CW 2021: 4125.

Crcrcrc

You should always open basic battlechip crystals if you want the most consistent results in units. Otherwise it’s in the hands of the rng gods

DNA3000

You should always open basic battlechip crystals if you want the most consistent results in units. Otherwise it’s in the hands of the rng gods

It is always in the hands of the RNG gods but yes, if your only concern is units and you want the most consistent results, you should always open the basic crystal.

However, in the long run the TB crystal generates the best results if you consider all rewards. It contains the same amount of units on average, very slightly more gold due to the way the crystal is constructed, and higher rarity Punishers. Same odds, but just bumped up rarity. For reference, out of 2200 UC crystals I pulled 4* Punisher three times and 5* Punisher never. Out of 780 TB crystals I pulled 5* Punisher five times (I have yet to pull 6* Punisher). 5* Punisher drops on average once out of every 5000 UC crystals, so I could have opened thousands more of them before getting him once. But he shows up once every 154 TB crystals, and I've pulled him multiple times.

It isn't a big deal, all the crystals have approximately the same net drop rate, with the basic and UC crystals being identical per Battlechip and the TB very slightly more, but the difference shouldn't be a big part of most players' decision making. Basic is the most consistent, TB has the tiniest edge in rewards.

G-Hun-Gear

@DNA3000
You're probably right, but I generally tend towards UC crystals for one reason: I don't care about Punisher... If I pull him with a basic crystal, that's 2000 BC just wasted... If I pull him with a UC crystal, that's 10k BC wasted, but at least I get 24 skill ISO, and I am always low on ISO...

G-Hun-Gear

Oh, and I just opened a 58th one: More gold... So the ratio is down to 7.75 units per UC crystal... Will update...

DNA3000

@DNA3000
You're probably right, but I generally tend towards UC crystals for one reason: I don't care about Punisher... If I pull him with a basic crystal, that's 2000 BC just wasted... If I pull him with a UC crystal, that's 10k BC wasted, but at least I get 24 skill ISO, and I am always low on ISO...

Fair enough. That is a reasonable strategy for managing those crystals.

G-Hun-Gear

Update: 60 crystals, still at 450 units… 7.5 units per UC crystal…

unknown

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A_Fungi

I only open regular arena crystals now. It's too much risk to open the others. I have opened 500k in thronebreaker and gotten only gold. Similar results with uncollected.

The reality is, if you aren't chasing higher rarity punisher, might as well open regular ones. Protects against the big bust.

G-Hun-Gear

65 crystals, the last one contained 75 units, for a total of now 525…

8 units on average… Well, I’m not even mad, I got the 8k units for cyber, which is fine because I wouldn’t have made the 10k needed for the second level offers, anyway…

Now I only need to hope that there are T6CC selectors in the level 1 unit offers…

Wish me luck! (More luck than with the arena crystals, please!

)

Rohit_316

Complete RNG , once i opened 3 TB arena crystals and got 2*1125 units lol , i was shocked.

Another time i opened 5 mil battechips and pulled only 4k units . Was frustrated af since the grind to 5 mil bchips took long . It is what it is mate .

SammyDe

I opened 2M BC worth of TB crystal and got 875 Units, I swore to never open any high level ones anymore. No regrets whatsoever. My suggestions is to open each time at least 250 crystals so that the RNG evens out.

I opened basic ones usually at least 500k BC and the results speak for themselves…

Hope I can convince you to open the basic ones and get a more consistent result.

G-Hun-Gear

I opened 2M BC worth of TB crystal and got 875 Units, I swore to never open any high level ones anymore. No regrets whatsoever. My suggestions is to open each time at least 250 crystals so that the RNG evens out.

I opened basic ones usually at least 500k BC and the results speak for themselves…

Hope I can convince you to open the basic ones and get a more consistent result.

That‘s impressive!

But seriously, how do you have the patience to open 1,360 crystals in one sitting?

TheCaptain412

I grind to 10MM Battlechips before opening 1K of the regular ones, and I keep track of rewards by every 100 crystals.

Last time I did this was in September. Results were:

26.2MM Gold (2.62MM average per 100 crystals)
18.3K Units (1830 average per 100 crystals)
9 4* Punisher
5 Energy Refills

Lowest Gold total per 100 crystals was 2.45MM, highest was 2,958,663.

Lowest quantity of Units per 100 crystals was 1,125 (twice) and highest was 2700 (twice).

Shadow_Shooter

i opened like 20 arena crystals, 10k ones and i only got 75 credits. i really think something is off before cyber weekend.

arifin74

I grind to 10MM Battlechips before opening 1K of the regular ones, and I keep track of rewards by every 100 crystals.

Last time I did this was in September. Results were:

26.2MM Gold (2.62MM average per 100 crystals)
18.3K Units (1830 average per 100 crystals)
9 4* Punisher
5 Energy Refills

Lowest Gold total per 100 crystals was 2.45MM, highest was 2,958,663.

Lowest quantity of Units per 100 crystals was 1,125 (twice) and highest was 2700 (twice).

Are you sure? Its way too high. 1k regular crystal = 2M chips, you got 9000 per million!! where 1800 is the average.
I opened 200k chips and got ~400 unit

Bungo

For the entire September I haven't popped atleast one 225 units from UC. Only been getting 75s. Will be switching to basic ones now.