I know crystals are not rigged but it’s so hard not to think this way when…

You pull 5 x 6* featured crystals and you get 4 of these out of 5. The fifth an equally old and useless champ, Green Goblin,

Really really weird level of being unlucky, lol.

Comments

Cure2024

@Cure2024 Jax can't send this even if he wanted to but I'm not contractually obligated to a position so

I know you are trying to stay out of jail but I don't think you will achieve that by attacking other users by your toxic comments and insults. I was just trying to participate in an interesting debate there was no need of insults

Mofugger

Nobody "weights RNG."

This is technically a true statement, but I'm not sure it's one that lands right with the general community. The crystals are RNG based, but there is a weighted chance toward each prize. Rift paths are random, but it's weighted to send me path A 60% of the time. Mysterio and Chavez are going to slap you with heavies. That's weighted RNG right?

I understand that it's the distribution that's weighted and not the number generation. That's a nuance that I think is more important than a blackjack analogy. Then again, trolls are gonna troll regardless of what is explained.

Terminatrix

RNGesus giveth, and RNGesus taketh away.

This is actually funny 😂

ahmynuts

Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):

This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha

We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.

I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.

But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.

I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.

It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?

Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?

Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.
It's less "our word against theirs" and more "our word and data, and code, and evidence vs. their word"
I have never seen any data provided by kabam as a proof or maybe I have not looked it well. could you please share a link to that data?
Or maybe you were referring to data compiled by DNA based on his on personal experience.

Yes kabam will share a link to their one drive right away

Quicksilver89

.That's unusual, but given how many players are opening crystals it is bound to happen to lots of people with thousands of players opening crystals.

On top of that I'm guessing if you opened that many crystals, you open a lot of crystals in general. You're mentioning this particular run of bad luck, assuming you are remembering it precisely (even one 6* or 7* anywhere reduces these odds substantially). How many times has this happened out of all the crystals you've opened, ever? If a player opens this kind of volume of crystals over and over again, eventually they will get this kind of streak of bad luck. The odds of you seeing this kind of bad luck this one time is one in 85. But the odds of you having ever seen it depend on how much crystals you open, and if you open a lot, the odds of seeing it are much higher.

I have played the game a long time and it does sometimes vary but very rarely, and I mean very rarely does opening a lot of crystals result in me getting something of value shall we say.

On the other hand in hindsight of said moan, I as do we all love this game, or we wouldn’t be here. It has its downfalls albeit opinion based, but my god is it not one hell of a game!

Also idk what’s happening with quotes, my apologies.

Demonzfyre

Wow. It's been a minute since the patent was talked about. Did Prof Hoff make another video?

DNA3000

Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):

This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha

We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.

I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.

But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.

I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.

It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?

Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?

Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.

There is overwhelming evidence that none of the crystal "rigging" conspiracies are valid.

No one can prove the crystals are "absolutely random" because there is no such thing. But we can demonstrate that they follow the expected distribution for the expected odds within the statistical margin for error.

For example, there's the theory that says that people who spend more get better drops. I analyzed COWhale's crystal opening streams and the evidence shows that to within the statistical margin for error, he got the drops you'd expect if his crystals obeyed the known drop odds for those crystals.

There's the theory that says Kabam manipulates arena crystals to cause them to have lower drop rates just prior to big sales days. I have several years of arena crystal data that shows if they do that, the effect is astronomically low, enough to be impossible to notice, and impossible for Kabam to profit from.

There's of course the theory that says Kabam rigs crystals to weight them away from the "better" champs and towards the weaker ones. This has been demonstrated to be false many, many times, most publicly with the Cinematic crystal from a few years back. The Cinematic crystal was also highly instructive as to how conspiratorial minds work. Once it was established that in fact all available data suggested that the stronger champs were showing up just as often as the weaker ones, the conspiracy shifted to claim that Kabam was actually weighting that crystal towards the stronger defenders, to make life difficult for players. Because of course.

Not only have I tested crystal randomness in terms of things like which champs drop more or less often, I even calculated how many pulls it would take, on average, for a player to pull at least one of every champ in the featured crystal, which is dependent on the relative odds of all champs in the crystal. If those odds are exactly identical, the number is about 91. And that turns out to be, on average, about the number it takes to get every champ in the crystal across large numbers of openings. That is an alternate statistical test of the relative drop odds of that crystal, separate from watching individual drops.

And while I'm the most prominent random crystal tester at this point, I am not the only person to have tested crystal drop odds in the history of the game. Many others have tested and found nothing. It takes so much effort for so little return that no one except me really does this any more. The people capable of doing this have simply moved on, as they probably should have. It isn't worth their time any more.

This whole "its just their word against ours so no one can be right" is itself crystal conspiracy nonsense. Odds can be tested. I can't prove a crystal drops 6* champs exactly twelve percent of the time. But I can prove it doesn't drop them 20% of the time or 6% of the time to within a high order of probability. There's no way to prove something is actually random and follows a certain drop probability with zero margin for error, but you can rule out other possibilities. And most of them have been ruled out.

There's also no way to audit the game in a meaningful way. People are thinking of either slot machine type audits, or ISO-style process audits. Slot machines are audited in very specific ways because they are physical machines. Once you confirm a slot machine has been built to a certain standard, you can verify it hasn't been tampered with after the fact. You cannot tamper-proof an online video game. It would be trivial to have auditors audit something that would never be used or be swapped out the day they left. And ISO audits presume a certain level of cooperation. If a business intends to deceive an ISO auditor that's not difficult to do at all. The presumption is that no one would spend more money to defraud an audit than it would cost to come into compliance. But that would not be true for a criminal enterprise. If Kabam was intent on defrauding its customer base as a foundational business practice, no process audit is going to catch them in the act. If that were the case, we wouldn't need the police to investigate organized crime. We'd just audit them.

An audit might catch mistakes. But you have to trust both the company and the auditor to catch those. An audit cannot catch conspiracies.

Demonzfyre

I have a hard time believing that the drop rates are spread evenly across the entire pool, hence why it says it's 100% probability of pulling a 6*. Plenty of bias to be had, considering I've opened 10 and got exactly 0 of the 6 new. Similar story to last crystal. Is what it is!

With such a large sample size, it definitely confirms your confirmation bias. I opened 10-

Mofugger

Yes kabam will share a link to their one drive right away

Now you're just being silly. No one has to one drive it, it's on their old blog site:
https://blogs.mtdv.me/blog/posts/rng-evaluation

Demonzfyre

Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):

This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha

We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.

I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.

But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.

I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.

It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!

This would prove the patent wrong if were even true. Spending money has no effect on what you get from crystals.

People that spend money tend to open more, which means more chances.

DNA3000

Nobody "weights RNG."
This is technically a true statement, but I'm not sure it's one that lands right with the general community. The crystals are RNG based, but there is a weighted chance toward each prize. Rift paths are random, but it's weighted to send me path A 60% of the time. Mysterio and Chavez are going to slap you with heavies. That's weighted RNG right?

I understand that it's the distribution that's weighted and not the number generation. That's a nuance that I think is more important than a blackjack analogy. Then again, trolls are gonna troll regardless of what is explained.

Yes it is, and it is something I often try to explain. But this is not a semantic only trivial distinction, because it is the basis for many crystal conspiracies. Everyone knows that random crystals are weighted - the posted odds even say so. There's one chance for 6*, and a different chance for 7* (by the way, what most players call "star rating" is actually technically referred to in the game not coincidentally as "rarity"). But there are players who believe that the posted odds themselves are a sham, because Kabam can manipulate the actual random results. In other words, it doesn't matter if a champ drops when you roll 3 on a d24, if the dice are loaded to never generate a 3.

If Kabam actually wanted to make, say, Bullseye drop less often than any other champ, they could simply make the drop odds do that by changing the weights. That's what featured crystals do explicitly. But Kabam says they do not do that for the normal crystals. If they are lying about it, that would be fraud, an actual crime. So some people believe Kabam manipulates the RNG instead of the weights in some deluded belief that this is how they "get away" with it.

Demonzfyre

Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):

This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha

We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.

I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.

But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.

I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.

It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?

Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?

Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.

The patent has been out for as long as the game exists. No one has ever provided actual hard evidence that it is actually implemented. Patents exist as well so that other people can't steal the idea. Amazon owns a patent for a floating warehouse. How many of those do you see? Are you going to call Bezos?

Pikolu

Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):

This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha

We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.

I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.

But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.

I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.

It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?

Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?

Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.
Are you going to call Bezos?

Yes, because we need a floating warehouse ASAP

Demonzfyre

Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):

This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha

We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.

I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.

But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.

I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.

It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?

Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?

Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.
It's less "our word against theirs" and more "our word and data, and code, and evidence vs. their word"
I have never seen any data provided by kabam as a proof or maybe I have not looked it well. could you please share a link to that data?
Or maybe you were referring to data compiled by DNA based on his on personal experience.

What data have you seen that proves the patent exists?

DNA3000

I have played the game a long time and it does sometimes vary but very rarely, and I mean very rarely does opening a lot of crystals result in me getting something of value shall we say.

Somehow I don't think Kabam would take the time to release all of your crystal opening data to me, even with your explicit permission. So I would suggest actually recording all of your crystal openings. Not literally, because that would be ridiculous, but these types of openings: batches of Cav/Paragon type crystals similar to what you posted. Do that for a few months straight, without any cherry picking or other exceptions, and let's see what happens.

One of two things will happen, both good (for you). Either you will catch the game skewing the odds of the crystals in an astronomically unlikely way beyond what's statistically possible which would validate your suspicions, or you'll start getting "something of value" at the statistically predictable rate which would be better than what you think you're getting now and improve your outlook on your luck.

Kabam Crashed

Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):

This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha

We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.

I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.

But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.

I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.

It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!

The odds of this happening are roughly 1 in 25. So I guess you need to ask yourself, do you think there are more or less than 25 people who play MCoC? And that is your answer for not only how it could happen, but why it will almost certainly happen.

xLunatiXx

I believe education is illegal in some part of the world to see this topic coming back again and again...

ahmynuts

I believe education is illegal in some part of the world to see this topic coming back again and again...

It's called the united states. We learn.... something....?

Quicksilver89

Hey I said it was mere venting, out of frustration, maybe more than actually believing what I wrote. I still find it odd how a large amount of crystals can accumulate to nothing, given the law of averages a vast amount of times. Furthermore as you can tell from my previous posts, I’m not exactly the brightest of sparks to say the least 😅

Demonzfyre

Hey I said it was mere venting, out of frustration, maybe more than actually believing what I wrote. I still find it odd how a large amount of crystals can accumulate to nothing, given the law of averages a vast amount of times. Furthermore as you can tell from my previous posts, I’m not exactly the brightest of sparks to say the least 😅

It's not a large amount of crystals.

Wozzle007

I’ve opened 2 featured, both were Bullseye. Clearly rigged. Who wants this Bullseye chump.

Chovner

I don't think speculation will ever go away on this subject after someone found that weighted RNG patent for Kabam or Netmarble, but it is what it is.

unknown

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Suros_moon

Eh, Ive run this experiment on RNG more than once and for many aspects that reach beyond simple crystal distributions. As far as Im aware there is no evidence that the displayed values are misleading nor that any dependency on factors like “distribution of champs you have” have any statistically significant impact. As far as Im aware Im far and away the most qualified (of those Ive encountered on the forum at least) to tackle such a problem short of having the actual raw data available to me. I would need a rather impressive set of evidence at this point to suggest otherwise, and Im sorry, “isnt my lone crystal opening kinda weird” doesn’t even begin to approach the quality of evidence would warrant further investigation. As an exercise, before questioning the RNG mechanism ask yourself this: I am one of millions of players. Is my result so absurdly extreme that over the million of crystals opened I would never expect to see it? Mind you, on the off chance the answer is yes, this still doesn’t begin to sniff at a reasonable amount of evidence to question the displayed rates, but even still, 99% of the posts that make it to this forum concerning RNG would fail here which would at least save us all some time

unknown

This content has been removed.

Polygon

You’re complaining about 6 stars?

I pulled the worst champion from the Titan pool not once but twice in the same damn opening. On top of that, her dupe is practically worthless.

Suros_moon

Hey I said it was mere venting, out of frustration, maybe more than actually believing what I wrote. I still find it odd how a large amount of crystals can accumulate to nothing, given the law of averages a vast amount of times. Furthermore as you can tell from my previous posts, I’m not exactly the brightest of sparks to say the least 😅

The law of averages… my friend, you opened 35 crystals. Do you know how much groundbreaking work I could do in a weekend if a sample size of 35 was enough to accurately extrapolate population parameters?

DNA3000

I don't think speculation will ever go away on this subject after someone found that weighted RNG patent for Kabam or Netmarble, but it is what it is.

People still think the Earth is flat even though we have both billionaires and high school students sending things into orbit. This conspiracy theory would have been laughed at by the ancient Greeks. We now live in an age of jet aircraft and GPS. The number of people who would have to be in on this conspiracy is probably now more than 10% of the population of the Earth. And this deters them exactly not at all.

Suros_moon

I don't think speculation will ever go away on this subject after someone found that weighted RNG patent for Kabam or Netmarble, but it is what it is.
People still think the Earth is flat even though we have both billionaires and high school students sending things into orbit. This conspiracy theory would have been laughed at by the ancient Greeks. We now live in an age of jet aircraft and GPS. The number of people who would have to be in on this conspiracy is probably now more than 10% of the population of the Earth. And this deters them exactly not at all.

I once put a microscope to a basketball and, wouldn't you know it, those are flat too

Feuerschwer

I don't think speculation will ever go away on this subject after someone found that weighted RNG patent for Kabam or Netmarble, but it is what it is.
People still think the Earth is flat even though we have both billionaires and high school students sending things into orbit. This conspiracy theory would have been laughed at by the ancient Greeks. We now live in an age of jet aircraft and GPS. The number of people who would have to be in on this conspiracy is probably now more than 10% of the population of the Earth. And this deters them exactly not at all.

I once put a microscope to a basketball and, wouldn't you know it, those are flat too

The basketball is flat, it’s the universe that’s curved!