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Math

PandingoPandingo Posts: 820 ★★★
edited April 5 in General Discussion
What's 12% of 30? Because zero 6*s outta 30 crystals with 12% drop rate seems more like a lack of math rather than an rng thing. Maybe I'm just not good at math. I definitely mathed too much of my budget into a mobile game hahaha (this isn't complaining it's just kinda funny at this point, hopefully superior paragon packages are coming because 4* are getting more irritating than the seemingly absurd percentages) the game is fun, I love the mods on here htg they are true champs and don't get enough credit for all the abuse they handle and the good work they do being the middle men between the company and us.

Math 41 votes

3.6
19%
AleorAykut387GreekhitXguard77Jack2634JJMACTNK_131MarvelNoob 8 votes
2ish
2%
Pandingo 1 vote
1 and be thankful
2%
IggyPop 1 vote
Kabam doesn't math
12%
Sceptilemaniac2RealWizardMystGQueenMcocArchit_1812 5 votes
STOP BUYING PARAGONS (OR anything really)
63%
CdvaTendersquadMaverick75SandeepSBrijeshSachhyam257ButtehrsMoeyTehrlaserjohn26captain_rogersMilan1405ItsClobberinTimeBen_15455JounaaPeeJosh2507ThePredator1001willrun4adonutPriyabrataHickdog27A_Fungi 26 votes

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    BringPopcornBringPopcorn Posts: 3,228 ★★★★★
    edited April 5
    Its 12% per crystal opened, its not the same.
    If you open 100 of them you are not gonna get 12 of them at least for sure...
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    PandingoPandingo Posts: 820 ★★★
    2ish
    Folkvangr said:

    You could even open 1000 and don’t get a single 6*, it is extremely unlikely but it could happen
    Maybe instead of complaining about a “lack of math”, you could stop buying chances at getting something, and only buy deals that guarantee you something

    That's my advice to everybody!! And probably what I'll do after spypunk drops. You did see me say I wasn't complaining right? It was a joke. It's funny. And people like to see they aren't the only ones not pulling anything. Comradery bro and/or ladybro and/or nonbinebuddy. Just be chill nobody's getting attacked
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    PandingoPandingo Posts: 820 ★★★
    2ish

    Its 12% per crystal opened, its not the same.
    If you open 100 of them you are not gonna get 12 of them at least for sure...

    I know. It's pretty crazy though right? I wonder when they last checked to make sure crystals aren't bugged. Cause obviously less people will talk about good luck rather than bad luck. But there's a lot of bugs. It's not the craziest thing to have a test account that drops like. 1k crystals to make sure the rng is operating properly after updates.
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    SummonerNRSummonerNR Posts: 11,097 Guardian
    edited April 5

    Its 12% per crystal opened, its not the same.
    If you open 100 of them you are not gonna get 12 of them at least for sure...

    Despite some other person in another crystals thread tonight that swore that “correct math” means that a 1% chance, across 100 crystals, does absolutely guarantee that you will get 1 successful hit.
    And anything to the contrary is not correct math.
    Lol.
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    SummonerNRSummonerNR Posts: 11,097 Guardian
    As to 12% drop rate, over 30 crystals, and not getting any.

    Calculate it as it you want to know probability that ALL crystals failed you.

    1 - 12% = 0.88
    Then take 0.88 “y” to the 30th (0.88 multiplied 30 times). So “0.88 x(y) 30” on scientific calculators.
    Gets you just above a 2% chance at failing that 12% odds from every crystal out of 30.
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    BringPopcornBringPopcorn Posts: 3,228 ★★★★★

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    Sachhyam257Sachhyam257 Posts: 1,031 ★★★★
    STOP BUYING PARAGONS (OR anything really)
    I could be wrong, but the probability of not getting a single 6* from a sample of 30 crystals with 12% drop rate would be:

    30c0×0.12⁰×0.88³⁰ ~ 0.0216 ~ 2.16%

    And last I checked, 2.16 isn't zero. Therefore, your result is still mathematically correct.
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    SummonerNRSummonerNR Posts: 11,097 Guardian
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    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,357 ★★★★★
    edited April 5
    Pandingo said:

    Its 12% per crystal opened, its not the same.
    If you open 100 of them you are not gonna get 12 of them at least for sure...

    I know. It's pretty crazy though right? I wonder when they last checked to make sure crystals aren't bugged. Cause obviously less people will talk about good luck rather than bad luck. But there's a lot of bugs. It's not the craziest thing to have a test account that drops like. 1k crystals to make sure the rng is operating properly after updates.
    They don't have to do that. They have the data from all the accounts that are active and opening crystals in MCOC. To this day, anyone who has claimed crystal drop rates are rigged or bugged has yet to produce an ounce of actual proof they are bugged/rigged. I've opened probably about the same amount as you and I pulled and duped Bullseye and Onslaught on my first 10. I haven't pulled a single featured champ since.

    But as always, if you had pulled champs you wanted, you wouldn't have made this post. It's only rigged/bugged because you aren't getting what you want.

    Edit: I realized you're talking about paragon crystals. You're talking about pulled a single 6* from the entire base pool of champions. You're competing wit higher drop rates from 4 and 5* champions as well. The math is fine, your expectations aren't.
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    VaniteliaVanitelia Posts: 351 ★★★
    If it makes you feel better, out of the 13 crystals (I got 1 extra from the Black ISO store) I got 1 6 star VTD, 2 5 stars, and the rest were all 4 stars. You always get excited when you see 1 new champ pop up and it ends up being the 4 star lol.

    But as many have said already, I don't have expectations with crystals other than they won't be a 7 star and definitely won't be the new champ. Always hope the law of averages kick in but been on quite the bad luck streak (seemingly for months).
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    klobberintymeklobberintyme Posts: 1,477 ★★★★
    First 2 paragons:



    Most recent 2 paragons:



    6* sightings in paragons:








    I think that's 30 crystals. I've never directly purchased them, just get them from content or as throw ins from bundles, so I'm fairly certain I'm not into double digit openings.

    Results may vary, as they say.
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