problem in arena crystals

Mr_heckerMr_hecker Member Posts: 29 ★
in General Discussion
the other day i opened about 16 arena crystals, i got no units which is just impossible since there is a 15% chance of getting units.
in my case i had a 240% chance which means i should have atleast gotten 60 units. Idk whether its a bug or the rng is just trash but pls fix it asap.

Comments

  • Mr Wilson FiskMr Wilson Fisk Member Posts: 302 ★★
    There's a 15% each time you open a crystal. You still only have a 15% chance out of the 16 crystals.
  • Ackbar67Ackbar67 Member Posts: 454 ★★★★
    That's not how math works. A coin has a 50% chance to land heads or tails, but you can still flip the same thing twice in a row. Every flip is independent of all the others, just as every crystal is unaffected by all previous. With 16 chances at 15% it comes out to about 92.6% chance of getting units once. Missing units on all of them is unlikely, but still more likely than rolling a 12 with 2 dice
  • ahmynutsahmynuts Member Posts: 7,640 ★★★★★
    This has to be a coordinated attack on the forums of people who are just pretending to be really really bad at math. Right guys? No way there's this many people. Right? 👀
  • BringPopcornBringPopcorn Member Posts: 5,362 ★★★★★
    Tin Foil Hat season, gotta go get me a roll.
  • Noobmaster555Noobmaster555 Member Posts: 111 ★
    Mr_hecker said:

    the other day i opened about 16 arena crystals, i got no units which is just impossible since there is a 15% chance of getting units.
    in my case i had a 240% chance which means i should have atleast gotten 60 units. Idk whether its a bug or the rng is just trash but pls fix it asap.

    True. Go get your compensation. 👀
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 12,946 Guardian
    Only 3 different threads about “MATH” in the last couple days 😀
  • xLunatiXxxLunatiXx Member Posts: 1,428 ★★★★★
    ahmynuts said:

    This has to be a coordinated attack on the forums of people who are just pretending to be really really bad at math. Right guys? No way there's this many people. Right? 👀

    Holiday season in the US ?
  • A_FungiA_Fungi Member Posts: 999 ★★★★
    I just love that his statistics knowledge told him to take 15% x (number of crystals) and that is your percentage chance to get units

    Great education system
  • i13i13 Member Posts: 160 ★
    You think that’s bad.

    The Cav crystals have a 3% chance to get a 6*

    You’re more likely to get hit by a bus on a bank holiday 🤣🤣
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,593 ★★★★★
    Percentages don't stack. Each Crystal is a 15% chance, and that's just as true for opening 100 as it is for opening one.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,709 Guardian
    Mr_hecker said:

    the other day i opened about 16 arena crystals, i got no units which is just impossible since there is a 15% chance of getting units.
    in my case i had a 240% chance which means i should have atleast gotten 60 units. Idk whether its a bug or the rng is just trash but pls fix it asap.

    15% chance to drop units is not the same thing as 15% of all crystals will contain units. How many units do you expect one arena crystal to contain?

    Another way to look at it is a coin flip is supposed to be 50% chance to get heads. Do you expect coin flips to alternate heads tails heads tails heads tails? That's the only way for 50% of flips to be heads.

    Each crystal has a 15% chance to drop units. That means on average 15 out of every 100 crystals will contain units. But it could be 14, or 10, or 19, because random chance means you will see variations from the average.

    Imagine we are just flipping coins rather than opening arena crystals, just to make life simple. There are exactly two ways for a coin to land when you flip it once: Heads or Tails. If you flip it twice, there are four possibilities: HH, HT, TH, TT. If the coin is actually random and fair, all four possibilities should be equally likely to happen. And if you flip it four times, there are 16 possibilities. They are:

    HHHH
    HHHT
    HHTH
    HHTT
    HTHH
    HTHT
    HTTH
    HTTT
    THHH
    THHT
    THTH
    THTT
    TTHH
    TTHT
    TTTH
    TTTT

    Again, if the coin is fair, then all sixteen possibilities should happen equally often on average. Which means someone should see all heads and someone should see all tails, if enough people flip coins.

    If we only care about units, then there are two possibilities: units, or not units. If we open 16 crystals, there are a total of 65536 possible openings, each with different probabilities (because units vs not units is not 50/50). We can calculate the odds of getting no units in 16 openings. It is about 0.074, or about 7.4%. Alternatively, it is about one chance in 13.5.

    In other words, if an entire alliance of 30 players all decided to open 16 arena crystals, the odds are pretty good that two of them would end up with no units. It's uncommon, but not particularly rare or unusual.
  • Josh2507Josh2507 Member Posts: 743 ★★★★
    ahmynuts said:

    This has to be a coordinated attack on the forums of people who are just pretending to be really really bad at math. Right guys? No way there's this many people. Right? 👀

    12/10 players support this coordinated attack
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 12,946 Guardian
    DNA3000 said:


    In my experience, at least 180% of the players have no workable knowledge of probability and statistics.

    25% of people will get a calculation wrong 150% of the time.
  • Giantwalrus56Giantwalrus56 Member Posts: 1,014 ★★★★
    Ayden_noah1 said:

    Mr_hecker said:

    the other day i opened about 16 arena crystals, i got no units which is just impossible since there is a 15% chance of getting units.
    in my case i had a 240% chance which means i should have atleast gotten 60 units. Idk whether its a bug or the rng is just trash but pls fix it asap.

    Sounds like you got rob. I would contact Prof Hoff and he will fight for you. He's the best youtuber for this kind of things. Nobody will believe you in the forums (they are non-believer Kabam yes people). Find your messiah (Prof Hoff) he will fight for the average person.

    This guy gets it. Prof Hoff is my hero
  • OldManHopOldManHop Member Posts: 296 ★★★
    As others have said... that's not how statistical odds work.
  • NightheartNightheart Member Posts: 2,117 ★★★★
    15% chance per crystal and even that's randomized it's like a rolling a dice if you understand probability.
  • Java_JunkieJava_Junkie Member Posts: 523 ★★
    gambler's math. you'll get it next time, for sure. o_0
  • i13i13 Member Posts: 160 ★
    Last month I I opened up 7 of the event 3-6 star crystals all together.

    3 of them were 5,4 & 3 star iceman.

    The irony….

    I got the lot by using a 6 star iceman I was hoping to dupe 😭

    The fudgeary of it!!

    Damn you Kabam!
  • HendrossHendross Member Posts: 961 ★★★
    Don't know to Disagree or LOL. So I flipped a coin, Heads, so it'll be Tails next time.
  • laserjohn26laserjohn26 Member Posts: 1,550 ★★★★★
    Java_Junkie said:

    gambler's math. you'll get it next time, for sure. o_0

    Martindale system
  • Mr_heckerMr_hecker Member Posts: 29 ★
    i13 said:

    You think that’s bad.

    The Cav crystals have a 3% chance to get a 6*

    You’re more likely to get hit by a bus on a bank holiday 🤣🤣

    well i have a lot of luck in cav crystals, i maneged to get 3 6* in 5 nexus cav crystals
  • Mr_heckerMr_hecker Member Posts: 29 ★
    Mr_hecker said:

    the other day i opened about 16 arena crystals, i got no units which is just impossible since there is a 15% chance of getting units.
    in my case i had a 240% chance which means i should have atleast gotten 60 units. Idk whether its a bug or the rng is just trash but pls fix it asap.

    to every1 out there, in other games there is a stack up system. so i assumed the same system is followed in this game, i havent played this game a lot since the last 2 years and wasnt really familar how the game works
  • shield311shield311 Member Posts: 945 ★★★
    Not in my dreams would I have imagined, someone being lectured on probability, on mcoc forums 😭😭😭
  • SirGamesBondSirGamesBond Member Posts: 5,240 ★★★★★
    Mr_hecker said:

    the other day i opened about 16 arena crystals, i got no units which is just impossible since there is a 15% chance of getting units.
    in my case i had a 240% chance which means i should have atleast gotten 60 units. Idk whether its a bug or the rng is just trash but pls fix it asap.

    Ignore all these math majors.
    Everyone knows it's rigged. Maths is just an excuse.
    Keep fighting for your units.
    You have my full support.
    👊👊👊
  • ahmynutsahmynuts Member Posts: 7,640 ★★★★★
    shield311 said:

    Not in my dreams would I have imagined, someone being lectured on probability, on mcoc forums 😭😭😭

    It happens at the very least once a week
  • laserjohn26laserjohn26 Member Posts: 1,550 ★★★★★
    SirGamesBond said:

    Mr_hecker said:

    the other day i opened about 16 arena crystals, i got no units which is just impossible since there is a 15% chance of getting units.
    in my case i had a 240% chance which means i should have atleast gotten 60 units. Idk whether its a bug or the rng is just trash but pls fix it asap.

    Ignore all these math majors.
    Everyone knows it's rigged. Maths is just an excuse.
    Keep fighting for your units.
    You have my full support.
    👊👊👊
    ATTICA!
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