problem in arena crystals

the other day i opened about 16 arena crystals, i got no units which is just impossible since there is a 15% chance of getting units.
in my case i had a 240% chance which means i should have atleast gotten 60 units. Idk whether its a bug or the rng is just trash but pls fix it asap.

Comments

Shamir51

You need to go back to school and learn statistics.

Mr Wilson Fisk

There's a 15% each time you open a crystal. You still only have a 15% chance out of the 16 crystals.

Ackbar67

That's not how math works. A coin has a 50% chance to land heads or tails, but you can still flip the same thing twice in a row. Every flip is independent of all the others, just as every crystal is unaffected by all previous. With 16 chances at 15% it comes out to about 92.6% chance of getting units once. Missing units on all of them is unlikely, but still more likely than rolling a 12 with 2 dice

ahmynuts

This has to be a coordinated attack on the forums of people who are just pretending to be really really bad at math. Right guys? No way there's this many people. Right? 👀

BringPopcorn

Tin Foil Hat season, gotta go get me a roll.

Noobmaster555

True. Go get your compensation. 👀

SummonerNR

Only 3 different threads about “MATH” in the last couple days 😀

xLunatiXx

Holiday season in the US ?

A_Fungi

I just love that his statistics knowledge told him to take 15% x (number of crystals) and that is your percentage chance to get units

Great education system

i13

You think that’s bad.

The Cav crystals have a 3% chance to get a 6*

You’re more likely to get hit by a bus on a bank holiday 🤣🤣

Ayden_noah1

Sounds like you got rob. I would contact Prof Hoff and he will fight for you. He's the best youtuber for this kind of things. Nobody will believe you in the forums (they are non-believer Kabam yes people). Find your messiah (Prof Hoff) he will fight for the average person.

GroundedWisdom

Percentages don't stack. Each Crystal is a 15% chance, and that's just as true for opening 100 as it is for opening one.

DNA3000

15% chance to drop units is not the same thing as 15% of all crystals will contain units. How many units do you expect one arena crystal to contain?

Another way to look at it is a coin flip is supposed to be 50% chance to get heads. Do you expect coin flips to alternate heads tails heads tails heads tails? That's the only way for 50% of flips to be heads.

Each crystal has a 15% chance to drop units. That means on average 15 out of every 100 crystals will contain units. But it could be 14, or 10, or 19, because random chance means you will see variations from the average.

Imagine we are just flipping coins rather than opening arena crystals, just to make life simple. There are exactly two ways for a coin to land when you flip it once: Heads or Tails. If you flip it twice, there are four possibilities: HH, HT, TH, TT. If the coin is actually random and fair, all four possibilities should be equally likely to happen. And if you flip it four times, there are 16 possibilities. They are:

HHHH
HHHT
HHTH
HHTT
HTHH
HTHT
HTTH
HTTT
THHH
THHT
THTH
THTT
TTHH
TTHT
TTTH
TTTT

Again, if the coin is fair, then all sixteen possibilities should happen equally often on average. Which means someone should see all heads and someone should see all tails, if enough people flip coins.

If we only care about units, then there are two possibilities: units, or not units. If we open 16 crystals, there are a total of 65536 possible openings, each with different probabilities (because units vs not units is not 50/50). We can calculate the odds of getting no units in 16 openings. It is about 0.074, or about 7.4%. Alternatively, it is about one chance in 13.5.

In other words, if an entire alliance of 30 players all decided to open 16 arena crystals, the odds are pretty good that two of them would end up with no units. It's uncommon, but not particularly rare or unusual.

DNA3000

In my experience, at least 180% of the players have no workable knowledge of probability and statistics.

Josh2507

12/10 players support this coordinated attack

SummonerNR

25% of people will get a calculation wrong 150% of the time.

Giantwalrus56

This guy gets it. Prof Hoff is my hero

OldManHop

As others have said... that's not how statistical odds work.

Nightheart

15% chance per crystal and even that's randomized it's like a rolling a dice if you understand probability.

Java_Junkie

gambler's math. you'll get it next time, for sure. o_0

i13

Last month I I opened up 7 of the event 3-6 star crystals all together.

3 of them were 5,4 & 3 star iceman.

The irony….

I got the lot by using a 6 star iceman I was hoping to dupe 😭

The fudgeary of it!!

Damn you Kabam!

DNA3000

Hendross

Don't know to Disagree or LOL. So I flipped a coin, Heads, so it'll be Tails next time.

laserjohn26

Martindale system

Mr_hecker

well i have a lot of luck in cav crystals, i maneged to get 3 6* in 5 nexus cav crystals

Mr_hecker

to every1 out there, in other games there is a stack up system. so i assumed the same system is followed in this game, i havent played this game a lot since the last 2 years and wasnt really familar how the game works

shield311

Not in my dreams would I have imagined, someone being lectured on probability, on mcoc forums 😭😭😭

SirGamesBond

Ignore all these math majors.
Everyone knows it's rigged. Maths is just an excuse.
Keep fighting for your units.
You have my full support.
👊👊👊

ahmynuts

It happens at the very least once a week

laserjohn26

ATTICA!