Which Have You Had the Best Luck Opening? (Units Edition)

JackTheSnack

I saw some content creators doing some MASSIVE battle chip openings. I know a lot of them have made it a point to test the RNG of buying certain crystal bundles at a time. If you’ve tested this, with banquet coming up, I’m sure there’s some curiosity out there about the best combo or odds for luck at units.

SummonerNR

Best choices..

Regular x5
UC x1
TB x10

Of course, those 3 above are actually all in a TIE, also tied with all of the other choices too.
There is no difference in RNG or Odds, especially for Units.

Only difference is what Star rarity of Punisher you can get from them.

JackTheSnack

Uncollected Arena Crystals (5 at a Time)

SummonerNR said:

Best choices..

Regular x5
UC x1
TB x10

Of course, those 3 above are actually all in a TIE, also tied with all of the other choices too.
There is no difference in RNG or Odds, especially for Units.

Only difference is what Star rarity of Punisher you can get from them.

Interesting on the 1 UC. I’ve heard from others that 5x UC was the best luck they’ve had from a few sources. I feel like I never hit units on the regulars or with 10x UC at a time.

JackTheSnack

Uncollected Arena Crystals (5 at a Time)

Another add on…do you pop them or spin them? 👀

victor158

i know this isnt the answer you wanna here but theres no difference in the crystals you open

there is a 15% chance to get units out of every crystal, and although i dont think its been offically confirmed, from that 15%, 10% is the chance for the 'low' value of units and 5% is the chance for the 'jackpot' value.

so with that in mind the expected unit value of a
single regular crystal is 0.1*15+0.05*45= 3.75 units per regular crystal= 3.75 units per 2k bc
single UC crystal is 0.1*75+0.05*225= 18.75 units per uc crystal/10k bc = 3.75 units per 2k bc
single TB crystal is 0.1*375+0.05*1125=93.75 units per tb crystal/50k bc = 3.75 units per 2k bc

there is no theoretical difference in units depending on which crystal you pick.

However say you have 100k bc, you can get 50 regular or 2 tb, the sample sizes are way different, and the lower the sample size the more likely it is that you can get widely lucky or unlucky. theres a 72% chance that you miss twice with the tb crystals and get 0 units but you could also get lucky twice and get both 1125, 'only' a 0.25% chance, which is still in the realm of possibility. However with the 50 basics the chance of getting 0 units or getting the max of 45 from all 50 crystals units are both so extremely low there little point in writing the number out.

if you only have a 'low' amount of bc and you wanna be safe, go for regular. If you wanna risk it, buy as many tb crystals as you can and pray to the rng gods.

Aecyn

Regular Arena Crystals (5 at a Time)

I'm not one to hoard anything so anytime I get over 10k battleships, I'll buy normal crystals until I can't. I'll take the time to buy the extra one or two on top of the 5 pack. But I feel like it's really rare that I haven't gotten at least 15 units every time and pretty often see 45.

SummonerNR

JackTheSnack said:

SummonerNR said:

Best choices..

Regular x5
UC x1
TB x10

Of course, those 3 above are actually all in a TIE, also tied with all of the other choices too.
There is no difference in RNG or Odds, especially for Units.

Only difference is what Star rarity of Punisher you can get from them.

Interesting on the 1 UC. I’ve heard from others that 5x UC was the best luck they’ve had from a few sources. I feel like I never hit units on the regulars or with 10x UC at a time.

Failed to check on the “spoiler”, thus not seeing that it didn’t matter one bit which of the 9 choices I “randomly” picked to highlight as 3 (of the equally same 9) choices.

(*disclaimer, actually, no, I didn’t pick those 3 randomly, I chose them in a purposedly haphazard manner, I was hoping would be very apparent.)

——
I will say though (see earlier person's math) that if your goal is to maximize the POTENTIAL HIGHEST amount of Unit winnings (much like playing the Lottery), it would be done via the highest level crystals, the TB versions. That is, if you don’t care about potentially getting the LEAST AMOUNT of Units as a possibility too (“live by the sword, die by the sword”)

Enough shards for 25 Basic (15% chance each at either 15 or 45 Units)
or 5 UC (15% chance each at either 75 or 225 Units)
or 1 TB (15% chance at either 375 (10%) or 1125 (5%))

So opening a single TB you only need 5% luck to get 1125 Units.
But opening 25 Basic ones, you'd need 5% luck on every single one of those 25 crystals in order to get that same Max amount of 1125 Units (which is much lower total odds that the TB's 5%).

Polygon

Always go for the regular, less likely to get screwed over by bad RNG. I find them to be the most consistent. I usually open 1-2m at a time but currently sitting on 4mill battle chips.

JackTheSnack

Uncollected Arena Crystals (5 at a Time)

victor158 said:

i know this isnt the answer you wanna here but theres no difference in the crystals you open

there is a 15% chance to get units out of every crystal, and although i dont think its been offically confirmed, from that 15%, 10% is the chance for the 'low' value of units and 5% is the chance for the 'jackpot' value.

so with that in mind the expected unit value of a
single regular crystal is 0.1*15+0.05*45= 3.75 units per regular crystal= 3.75 units per 2k bc
single UC crystal is 0.1*75+0.05*225= 18.75 units per uc crystal/10k bc = 3.75 units per 2k bc
single TB crystal is 0.1*375+0.05*1125=93.75 units per tb crystal/50k bc = 3.75 units per 2k bc

there is no theoretical difference in units depending on which crystal you pick.

However say you have 100k bc, you can get 50 regular or 2 tb, the sample sizes are way different, and the lower the sample size the more likely it is that you can get widely lucky or unlucky. theres a 72% chance that you miss twice with the tb crystals and get 0 units but you could also get lucky twice and get both 1125, 'only' a 0.25% chance, which is still in the realm of possibility. However with the 50 basics the chance of getting 0 units or getting the max of 45 from all 50 crystals units are both so extremely low there little point in writing the number out.

if you only have a 'low' amount of bc and you wanna be safe, go for regular. If you wanna risk it, buy as many tb crystals as you can and pray to the rng gods.

Loving the statistics take on things. I completely agree. With bad RNG being a possibility, increasing your odds by going with the regulars is probably the move unless you’re sitting on enough chips to open a bulk amount of UC crystals