**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Options
Kabam what are the chances of getting a particular 5* champion?
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Why do people keep saying a particular set of drops cannot possibly be due to random chance, when they apparently have no idea what random chance can produce. Eleven is such a small sample size that MCOC has almost certainly produced *every* possible class configuration somewhere. Across the millions of players opening 4* and 5* crystals, I would bet even money that eleven openings in a row of the *same* class has happened at least one time.
By comparison, at least four of one and four of another in eleven pulls happens about once every 1944 openings. Given the number of players likely opening 5* crystals, my guess is there are hundreds of players that have pulled something like this.
To put this into perspective, you're about five times more likely to pull this combination of classes than you are to win the $100 prize in scratch card powerball. It is about as likely as a craps player surviving for 52 rolls. If you see a wall of plaques for casino players that win what some call the "golden arm" by rolling on the craps table for over an hour without crapping out, they beat random odds about one thousand times less likely than pulling the combination specified above.
Just for giggles, I compared the relative odds of surviving rolls for about 100 rolls (about what it would take to win the golden arm in most casinos) with opening featured 5* crystals. Every single golden arm champion performed the equivalent of opening nine featured 5* crystals in a row and landing the featured champion every single time. Those odds are approximately the same: about one in two million.
People are very bad at estimating and comparing odds. The gambling industry is built upon this fundamental human failing. If you don't do the calculations, your intuition will always lead you to the wrong answer.
In fact, even if you can do the calculations, if you aren't careful the numbers will still lead you astray. Probability is the source of most errors in scientific journals.
RNG? Seems like my fate was already sealed before i even started spinning..... As RNG as pokie machines...
Why is this flagged?
If you are going to keep mentioning this patent, at least read the patent yourself and mention to others that the patent explicitly states that the intent of the invention is to make loot boxes more attractive to players, and that one of the specific claims in the patent application (i.e. one of the fundamental components of the invention) is a mechanism to inform players when the odds change to encourage them to do the things that improve the odds and then buy the improved loot boxes.
If you believe they are modifying crystal odds and specifically keeping it a secret, this patent doesn't apply.
Before I started looking at featured crystals the player consensus was wider: the speculation was that it was anywhere between one in ten and one in four. When people started to stream openings and otherwise report opening data I (and other players) started analyzing the most unskewed sources of openings that were out there (in other words, the ones least likely to be self-selected as out of the ordinary) and my conclusion was that the drop rate was about one in five. Most of the people quoting that number have either done a similar analysis and converged on a similar number, or are parroting players that have. But that estimate is based on the best data available, and is something more than a guess. In fact, I can assert a margin of error of about 20% or so, meaning the real number is almost certainly between 16% and 24%.
If there was a neutral way to verify, I'd be willing to bet anyone real cash the drop rate is in that range.
There's actually a lot of streamed crystal opening videos out there, because they are some of the more popular kinds of videos that get a lot of views. If the person only streams "interesting" openings that data has huge potential skews in it but some youtubers show practically all their openings. Those are statistically significant and there are hundreds of featured crystal openings and tens of thousands of PHC openings to analyze. Its enough to get at least a rough idea. I don't expect any major surprises in the drop tables compared to other games.
Fair enough—and I agree that both sides are in the position of requiring the other to prove a negative, which is absurd. If RNG is done correctly, there’s no reason why someone couldn’t get a string of ridiculously good or bad drops. Those are plausible results of statistical forumlas expressed via code intended to approximate a “random” outcome.
So it is unfair to lump into the RNG Chorus any of the folks who are trying to point out how math (in theory) should work. However, to the extent those folks state with authority that that’s how this particular game works, absent some concrete support, they clearly belong in the Chorus. Call them the “I believe Kabam” camp (as opposed to the “I disbelieve Kabam” camp).
Put another way: Math isn’t a matter of belief, but trusting Kabam’s application of mathematical principles is.
Dr. Zola
They put the best prizes in the reel to make you buy more. It’s a selling tactic.
On the other hand, to play the devil's advocate, what hard evidence do you have that we are dealing with a biased RNG system ? Some think so, some do not. Point is we'll never know, so the only thing to do for the whales is to keep spending till they are utterly milked.
Just kidding, it's only a game, let's appreciate it for what it is, spend on it if you can et hope for the best regardless.
In terms of the Basic Crystal, there is no drop rate. It's just a list of possibilities based on who is in the Crystal. You have an equal chance to pull a Champ. Now, some see repeats as suspicious, but that's completely possible with computer-generated results, and it happens all the time. One week early on, I pulled a 2*, 3*, and 4* Guillotine, all within a relatively close time frame, and that was with variant Crystals (drop rates). It's more possible with a system that has equal chances of outcomes.
I'm afraid what we have is people Duping their Champs. The problem is they don't prefer the Champs they Dup. I wouldn't see much questioning if someone pulled Bobby or Sparky multiple times.
To the OP, it's entirely possible to pull the same Champs, but in terms of the Basic, 2*, 3*, 4*, and 5* Crystals, it's all the same chances.
Fair point. There is no evidence to support a molested RNG. However, the fact that they refuse to release drop rates makes think that it is not a pure RNG. Their lack of tranperancy is why the RNG Truthers confuse me with their blind faith.
5 Skills (27%).
4 Mutants (22%).
3 Cosmic (17%).
3 Tech (17%).
2 Mystic (11%).
1 Science (6%).
and by tier
2 God Tiers (GP, X-23). 11%.
7 Amazing Champs (Sym Spidey, Guilly, CB, Hawkeye, AV, IF and BP). 39%
3 Okay Champs (Ronan, Mags and OG Spidey). 17%.
6 Total Trash (Hulkbuster, Groot, Colossus, Iron Patriot, Iron Man, and Gambit). Iron Man wouldn't fit in there if he was duped though. 33%.
also, my last 2 were pure trash. but i got like 4 consecutive amazing champs one time so i don't know what to believe. lol. some people have only trash champs and no okay one.
Because people consider a handful of Champs out of the entire Crystal as "useful".
The “20% chance” for a featured 5* originated with Kabam Customer Svc’s form letter response to player complaints re feature champ drop rates. They used 20% rate as a hypothetical. Their answer, to player Complaints about 5* feat crystals ..”.. if the drop rate for the featured champ was set at 20%, that doesn’t mean that players will win that champ 20% of the time(???) it means that 80% we won’t get him.And further the probability of getting the featured champ does not increase if players open additional crystals.
I understand what they are trying to say, but wow that is a very poor understanding of probability.
As for 20% feature drop, Players might make an assumption that Kabam wouldn’t throw out a number like that if in reality the drop rate was 10% or low ball it if was really 30%.
I won’t assume that customer service has any idea what the real drop rate is.
The Mods have said the drop rate for 5* Feat. Champs has remained constant week to week and crystal to crystal. I’m not sure how far back that goes. Very early on, I remember being advised to save 45k 5* shards to increase the chance of duping the featured champ. I never had enough shards to try it pre 12.0, but I know I don’t hear anyone saying that now.
As for RNG, get real. I have 5 emails from customer service that repeat over and over that “In game factors influence the drop rates of champions and that Kabam does this to provide a chance for players to win valued game items and champs, while also preserving their rarity and integrity within the game.
I specifically asked them if players can be assured that the drop rate for the featured 5* champ is a fixed probability week to week. The answer I got was “The drop rates are intended to keep balance in the game and the chances of pulling a desired champ are the same with each crystal”.
I have no idea what the representative meant by “keeping balance in the game”. Nor why he couldn’t answer my question more directly if the drop rates are a constant probability from week to week.
The only thing that was made perfectly clear to me is that there is no RNG. Maybe a Kabam modified RNG, but nobody made that claim to me.
No Kabam only scales favorable drop rates to new players. Spenders do not get any modified RNG love.
Worth bearing in mind around 80% of champs aren’t particularly desirable, so the majority of players are likely to be disappointed with most crystal openings.
I may get **** for saying this but all I can say is my luck was VERY good as a new player in terms of getting 4*s from PCH crystals. I got like 3 4*s from PHCs within the first 2 months and then the next 2 months 300-400+ crystals I got only 1 from PHCs (just yesterday actually... was a good on though..... Guillotine so I was happy but I now know what to expect for the future of opening my PHCs). So basically in my first 100 I got like 3-4 4*s and then from the next few hundred I got 1. Oh also it didn't happen for awhile into my playing... so it was like right at the end of the 2 months I stated getting lucky in 4*s from PCH... so it did seem like when i hit certain milestones it then let me get them (I remember thinking that on my 3* luck and then later my 4* luck... never happned for 5*s though XD also I have yet to get a single God Tier champion... though with Guillotine and Rouge in the past week I do now have 4 Demi-God Tiers... well 3 until Hulk gets duped)..
Anyways that is just my experience and I am sure they vary. I just remember buying a featured PCH and pulling Vulture as a 4* when he was new and I was a new player (felt amazing).
Pretty interesting thing to think about. I would suggest people not get too upset one way or the other
Whether you want to believe that or not is up to you, but we've told you the truth, and starting more and more threads on it does not change the fact that they are totally random.
Closing this thread down because it is nowhere near constructive whatsoever.