At the lowest hourly rate I recorded (which might not be the absolute lowest ever, but its probably around there) at 400 points per crystal (implying they were purchased and then opened) the players were opening slightly less than four crystals per second. That's the *lowest* opening rate I've seen (and in fact the actual rate was probably slightly higher, as some of those crystals were probably ticket or milestone openings).
At the height of crystal opening, which happened about an hour into the event, we were scoring over 600 million points per hour. At 400 points per hour that would be over 400 crystals per second. But in fact, those points could not have come from only purchased crystals; many had to be ticket or milestone crystals especially right at the start, which means the actual peak opening rate at the start of the event probably approached or exceeded 1000 crystals per second.
For reference, the highest opening rate I measured during Crystal Cleanse was around 3700 crystals per second. We were opening fewer crystals per second at the start of banquet, but it is interesting to compare how many SBCs and GBCs we were opening at the start of banquet to the total number of crystals everyone was opening of all kinds during Crystal Cleanse. It is pretty impressive when you think about the average value of the crystals being opened.
Will they run the 10 sbc offer back or is it gone?
I have no specific reason to believe that offer is likely to return before the end of the banquet event.
As @MrSakuragi mentioned, I remember those 10 banquet crystal offers running twice, which is why I initially held off on it. But the event seems to be ending next week (~6 days), and the unit offers end in ~4 days, maybe they'll run it back in the last 2 days? Have they mentioned anything about this? I'm off my goal by exactly 10 banquet crystals (buy+open), which is why I'm asking...
Will they run the 10 sbc offer back or is it gone?
I have no specific reason to believe that offer is likely to return before the end of the banquet event.
As @MrSakuragi mentioned, I remember those 10 banquet crystal offers running twice, which is why I initially held off on it. But the event seems to be ending next week (~6 days), and the unit offers end in ~4 days, maybe they'll run it back in the last 2 days? Have they mentioned anything about this? I'm off my goal by exactly 10 banquet crystals (buy+open), which is why I'm asking...
I have not seen anything mentioned, though it hasn’t been communicated in past years either.
Using 3100 units as a benchmark as an "Odin" in this event is problematic. For instance:
For Valiant players with access to the webstore, a total of 5 banquet bundles offering a combined 50 SBCs and 8 Banquet Tokens yielded a point total of 20,800 at a cost of roughly $250.
Maxing out 4 purchases of the webstore Odin package, which offers 5115 units plus 2 SBCs, would yield 28,000 points if used exclusively for buying and opening SBCs. That's $400.
Incorporating 10 SBCs from tokens at the start of the event for 1,000 pts, 400 pts from solo/alliance milestone SBCs along with a total of 900 pts from Accolades, we're looking at a total of 51,100 points. Dividing that by 400 gives you the equivalent of 127.75 SBCs purchased and opened. At 300 units a pop, that's 38,325 units or at 3100 per Odin, roughly $1,200 USD of Odins plus a Tony Stark Briefcase. HOWEVER, real world cost of this is actually $650.
Which is to say, they're generating revenue, but not nearly the neat Total Divided By 400 Times 300 calculation propagated by some.
That said, buying every available unit bundle available for this event through the webstore (Banquet Bundles, Unit Store Bundles PLUS Sunken Namor Riches, which include generous bonus units per package), coupled with Banquet Milestone bonus points, comes out to 80,780 points at a real cost of $1,180 USD but a 3100 unit Odin value equivalent of 19.54 Odins, or $1,954 USD.
In closing:
51,100 pts could be $650 or 36,900 ftp units, NOT $1,236 80,780 pts could be $1,180 or 60,585 ftp units, NOT $1,954
The top point earner in my alliance currently has 160,620 pts. Thats a whole lot of something.
Using 3100 units as a benchmark as an "Odin" in this event is problematic.
That’s true, which is why I addressed that immediately after those estimations. The idea was to provide a bracket of what the range of numbers would likely be. The average cost of units, and then down to crystals, is very likely going to be somewhere between 3100 units per $100 USD and about 50% more than that. Even though there are ways to get even more units than that in theory (and less efficient ways as well), the overall average is almost certainly going to fall somewhere between those two, as it is borderline impossible for the overall player average to exceed the 50% bonus in the holiday sales, even if they were heavily weighted towards whales spending tons.
The issue of accounting for “free” crystals is something I accounted for separately as well, before attempting to calculate spending. All of that is in the original post.
It might be possible to attempt to tease out what the actual ratio of unit cost is by analyzing the score distribution over the entire event to try to isolate spending before the sales and spending after the sales, but it is unclear at the moment how strong that signal might be. Maybe in a few days I’ll return to that question after collecting more data
Comments
At the lowest hourly rate I recorded (which might not be the absolute lowest ever, but its probably around there) at 400 points per crystal (implying they were purchased and then opened) the players were opening slightly less than four crystals per second. That's the *lowest* opening rate I've seen (and in fact the actual rate was probably slightly higher, as some of those crystals were probably ticket or milestone openings).
At the height of crystal opening, which happened about an hour into the event, we were scoring over 600 million points per hour. At 400 points per hour that would be over 400 crystals per second. But in fact, those points could not have come from only purchased crystals; many had to be ticket or milestone crystals especially right at the start, which means the actual peak opening rate at the start of the event probably approached or exceeded 1000 crystals per second.
For reference, the highest opening rate I measured during Crystal Cleanse was around 3700 crystals per second. We were opening fewer crystals per second at the start of banquet, but it is interesting to compare how many SBCs and GBCs we were opening at the start of banquet to the total number of crystals everyone was opening of all kinds during Crystal Cleanse. It is pretty impressive when you think about the average value of the crystals being opened.
Using 3100 units as a benchmark as an "Odin" in this event is problematic. For instance:
For Valiant players with access to the webstore, a total of 5 banquet bundles offering a combined 50 SBCs and 8 Banquet Tokens yielded a point total of 20,800 at a cost of roughly $250.
Maxing out 4 purchases of the webstore Odin package, which offers 5115 units plus 2 SBCs, would yield 28,000 points if used exclusively for buying and opening SBCs. That's $400.
Incorporating 10 SBCs from tokens at the start of the event for 1,000 pts, 400 pts from solo/alliance milestone SBCs along with a total of 900 pts from Accolades, we're looking at a total of 51,100 points. Dividing that by 400 gives you the equivalent of 127.75 SBCs purchased and opened. At 300 units a pop, that's 38,325 units or at 3100 per Odin, roughly $1,200 USD of Odins plus a Tony Stark Briefcase. HOWEVER, real world cost of this is actually $650.
Which is to say, they're generating revenue, but not nearly the neat Total Divided By 400 Times 300 calculation propagated by some.
That said, buying every available unit bundle available for this event through the webstore (Banquet Bundles, Unit Store Bundles PLUS Sunken Namor Riches, which include generous bonus units per package), coupled with Banquet Milestone bonus points, comes out to 80,780 points at a real cost of $1,180 USD but a 3100 unit Odin value equivalent of 19.54 Odins, or $1,954 USD.
In closing:
51,100 pts could be $650 or 36,900 ftp units, NOT $1,236
80,780 pts could be $1,180 or 60,585 ftp units, NOT $1,954
The top point earner in my alliance currently has 160,620 pts. Thats a whole lot of something.
The issue of accounting for “free” crystals is something I accounted for separately as well, before attempting to calculate spending. All of that is in the original post.
It might be possible to attempt to tease out what the actual ratio of unit cost is by analyzing the score distribution over the entire event to try to isolate spending before the sales and spending after the sales, but it is unclear at the moment how strong that signal might be. Maybe in a few days I’ll return to that question after collecting more data
And I think people still with a lot of units to spend on SBC
Mine ,I spent yesterday as I saw will get more rewards as 7500 7 stars shards was next.... But I collected 50k haha
Congratulations everyone: we made it. With still a week to go to grab Titan shards.