Statistical Near Impossibility

I opened a 5* and a 6* basic crystals back to back within 1 minute of each other. Pulled Venom from both. With nearly 300 champs to choose from, how does that even happen? That’s like a 0.0012% chance.

Comments

Bosley

Polygon

Do you want to see a statistical anomaly?

Say less

Magrailothos

Alright, I get it and stand corrected.
Getting any two of the same champion, if I do not care what the champion is = 1/300. Because the 1st crystal is technically 300/300 — it just sets the target for the 2nd crystal; so then the only probability in play is crystal #2, trying to match the 1st crystal: thus 1/300.
However if i ONLY wanted Venom, so he was the target of both crystals, then the probability of both crystals comes into play: 1/300 x 1/300 = 1/90,000.
So even though the outcome was technically the same — double Venom — the probability jumps to 1/90,000 due to desiring a specific result in BOTH crystals.

Thanks for the statistical lesson.

You got it.

Don't worry, it's an incredibly common mistake.

Some of us pretty much have statistics explanations ready to cut/paste by now...

And, even if the odds were 1/90,000 (which would be the odds of pulling the same champion three times back-back), with hundreds of thousands of players opening crystals every day, that really is the kind of thing we'd expect to see, from time to time.

It's not just statistics at play: it's is bias - both recall bias and reporting bias.

Pulling a bad champ is more memorable/noticeable than pulling a mid champ.

So, you're more likely to remember the last bad champion you pulled, if you pull them again.

Out of the hundreds of thousands of players opening crystals that day, you're also going to be much more likely to come on the forums and tell people about it...

ShinobiGuy

Back in the day, in the long long ago. Before 6* were a thing, I opened 4* Blade and then immediately after 5* Blade from a 4* and 5* crystal. That was a good day.

PT_99

Hey at least it's not 7* 💀
Because that would be stingy

Kerneas

1/90 000?

That's far from statistically impossible, lol.

ZsirhcZ

Back in the day, in the long long ago. Before 6* were a thing, I opened 4* Blade and then immediately after 5* Blade from a 4* and 5* crystal. That was a good day.

Back in the day, when we could sell champs, and 5 stars were the new thing, I watched a fellow player sell his 4 star She Hulk (way before she was buffed) to get the last few fragments for their very 1st 5 star. And they pulled She Hulk. Nearly made them quit.

My 1st 6 star crystal (when 6 stars were new) was Silver Surfer. 4 months of grinding to get him. 4 months later I opened my 2nd 6 star crystal and got Silver Surfer and I nearly quit.

Fast forward to my first 7 star crystal about a year and a half ago. I pulled 7 star IMIW. Several weeks later my second 7 star came from a paragon. And I duped IMIW.

All that to say… while the game isn’t rigged, it can feel that way from time to time.

Pandingo

With the state of the game and the rise of these instances. Even though i DO believe its rng. Its awfully hard to squash the conspiracy stuff. Especially when all the cash grab offers and lack of quality and consistent solutions (seriously irritated at the insanity of the nightmare compensation vs NO quality compensation for a multitude of other issues) kabam seems to be simutaneously catering to the 1% and also giving off major everything must go vibes. If we see year 11 at this rate ill be extremely suprised. Pleased. But suprised.

GroundedWisdom

I think you're overthinking it. It happens all the time.

peixemacaco

I opened a 5* and a 6* basic crystals back to back within 1 minute of each other. Pulled Venom from both. With nearly 300 champs to choose from, how does that even happen? That’s like a 0.0012% chance.

I had 2 Seven Stars Crystal to open

Pulled Emma Frost and was anxious to see the next one...

I let the Crystal spin 6 times and...

pulled Emma Frost again

It's rng

Dr. Crab

I believe one time I pulled the same 4 star, 5 star and 6 star back to back to back. I chuckled and never thought of it again (I guess until now).

DukeZman

I think you're overthinking it. It happens all the time.

Alright, I get it and stand corrected.
Getting any two of the same champion, if I do not care what the champion is = 1/300. Because the 1st crystal is technically 300/300 — it just sets the target for the 2nd crystal; so then the only probability in play is crystal #2, trying to match the 1st crystal: thus 1/300.
However if i ONLY wanted Venom, so he was the target of both crystals, then the probability of both crystals comes into play: 1/300 x 1/300 = 1/90,000.
So even though the outcome was technically the same — double Venom — the probability jumps to 1/90,000 due to desiring a specific result in BOTH crystals.

Thanks for the statistical lesson.

I corrected myself

DNA3000

Alright, I get it and stand corrected.
Getting any two of the same champion, if I do not care what the champion is = 1/300. Because the 1st crystal is technically 300/300 — it just sets the target for the 2nd crystal; so then the only probability in play is crystal #2, trying to match the 1st crystal: thus 1/300.
However if i ONLY wanted Venom, so he was the target of both crystals, then the probability of both crystals comes into play: 1/300 x 1/300 = 1/90,000.
So even though the outcome was technically the same — double Venom — the probability jumps to 1/90,000 due to desiring a specific result in BOTH crystals.

Thanks for the statistical lesson.

That's correct.

I think, though, that some people get a little confused on how which champ you want affects the odds. To be specific, wanting or not wanting Venom doesn't directly affect the odds. Rather, it comes down to a question of how we partition the odds. Odds relate to success and failure: what are the odds of something happening verses failing to happen. You noticed two Venoms in a row. If it had been two Spiderman pulls in a row, would you have said well, it isn't two Venoms so this is not worth noticing or talking about?

If there was something special about Venom you were explicitly looking for, such that two of anything else would be literally not noteworthy, then the odds are indeed 1/300 x 1/300. But you were not looking for Venom, you noticed two in a row. You would have come here to post if it had been two Thors or two Havoks. It was the duplication that caught your eye. What are the odds that such an event would catch your eye?

In statistics, as many have mentioned, it can often be difficult to calculate the right odds under different conditions. It is easy to make a mistake. When in doubt, go to first principles. The odds of you seeing a duplicate are simply all the ways you could have seen a duplicate divided by all possible drop combinations. If there are 300 champs in the crystal, then there are 90,000 possible different ways two crystals can land. Out of all those ways, there are 300 dups: the first champ comes up twice, the second champ comes up twice, etc. Imagine making a giant list of all possible ways for the two crystals to open. The list has 90,000 rows, and in 300 of those rows there is a duplicate drop.

Thus, the odds of seeing a duplicate are 300/90000 or 1/300. Fundamentally speaking, odds are about counting. How many ways out of how many ways.

DNA3000

They say that you have the same percent chance at pulling any champ in the crystal. If anyone actually believes that, then thats sad an will be disappointed alot. Higher chance at pulling a low tier champ an higher chance at pulling low tiers champs back to back an getting those same champs over an over again. Seen so many people argue about percentages an all of it. Never pull top tier champs over an over.

1. I not only believe that, I've tested this in the past.

2. Once upon a time, crystal opening videos were very popular, and it was possible to watch literally tens of thousands of crystal openings. To within the limits of the sample size, no bias towards "high tier" vs "low tier" champs was ever found in the drop data. And to prevent bias from entering the data, I only used data from live stream openings, so they could not be self selected to be "good" or "bad." I don't do that any more because it is too much work and the only people left to convince are not data driven people.

3. I have not been the only person to test the statistical variations of crystals. There was a mass effort to test certain kinds of other crystals, like GMCs and special pool crystals. There was an attempt to test the statistical variability of the Cinematic crystals on the forums. No one who has ever attempted such a thing has ever seen a statistical skew in the crystals. You could argue that the crystals are loaded, but by an amount so small these tests can't observe it. But any skew that small is also going to be completely unnoticeable by any single player opening the crystals they have.

4. Back in 2022 I opened 69 of the featured 6* crystals containing Galan, Goor, Quicksilver, Titania, Valkyrie, and Wiccan. I pulled Gorr back to back, Quicksilver back to back, and Titania in three out of four pulls. In March of 2024 I pulled Bullseye back to back within the first ten crystals.

5. Because Kabam has a champion buff program, separate from the fact there is zero evidence that crystals are weighted by champion "tier" there's the fact that doing this would be nonsensical. There is absolutely no reason for Kabam to, say, deliberately weight crystals so everyone ends up pulling Hulkbuster and Colossus and then buff those champs to become high value champs. What possible benefit could Kabam gain from taking the champs that are "low tier" and simultaneously make them more common in the champion crystals so everyone has a high chance of getting them and also buffing them out of the "low tier" so that those champs are worth a ton? This makes no sense whatsoever.

The only people who believe crystals are weighted in this fashion are the flat Earth chem-trail weirdos that probably believe an alien race of Yeti came to Earth riding the Loch Ness monster and built the pyramids of Egypt.

Glads

The chance is 1 /300 . So only .3%. not an anomaly .

The chance of any champion from the crystal is .3%. so you'll have to start making posts every time you open a crystal

That is the definition