Titan Crystal Drop Rates
Ryker
Member Posts: 55 ★
Can it be confirmed on this forum the distribution of champs in the titan crystal is equal. Meaning, that the likelihood of acquiring any champ in the pool is exactly the same among them.
Only asking because top champs seem like rare drops, while the worst champs in the crystal seem to come up every time. Thx!
Only asking because top champs seem like rare drops, while the worst champs in the crystal seem to come up every time. Thx!
4
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All I’m saying is I elected for nexus titan (and not maestro) from carina challenge. I calculated that I had 75% chance of hitting a champ that I wanted from one of the selections - result: all three were bad!
Also, I have BWDO awakened 3x and now RH 2x!
And not one of the new, good champs!
Informal Rule of Thumb:
If you see 3 or more identical results in a row from a uniform 16-pull pool, your eyebrows should go up.
If you see 4+ in a row, it’s very likely not random unless you’ve done tens of thousands of trials.
You got bad pulls, big deal. Happens all the time. Insisting that a random chance isn’t random off of a single occurrence is pretty much impossible to reasonably claim unless the odds are like one in a quadrillion. We’ve got hundreds of thousands of player rolling numerous crystals, you’re guaranteed to see “eyebrow-raising results” in individual cases basically all the time, especially since it’s typically the ticked off players who post their results to the public rather than the guy who just got something “normal”.
I have once upon a time saved up 500k 6 star shards for a featured Adam warlock, and didn't pull a single featured let alone Adam, but did pull gwenpool about 4 times (the lowest value champ on that pool) and this has been a pattern since, even with my titans. Ide like to believe it's random, but my own personal stats heavily beg to differ
I looked at the pool. I identified the champs I would be happy and unhappy with getting.
Also, as it’s a nexus crystal, you can pick one champ from three and none of them can be repeats of one another.
Punched all that into a calculator and found I had more than 75% chance to get what I wanted.
ALL three were from the “I do not want column.”
Pretty remarkable, not impossible but that really badly beat the odds. It favored dupes not needed and 2nd worst new, which I had to select.
Not proven — but it’s statistically suspicious. If this is part of a system you don’t control (like a game or tool), and you’re seeing unfavorable outcomes cluster like this, it could be:
• Poor randomization,
• Biased selection logic,
• Or yes — intentional skewing.
But for easy math, let’s say it’s 50/50.
In plain terms:
If it’s truly 50/50 and you pull 3 non-repeating items:
• There’s only a ~10% chance you get all unfavorable
• There’s a ~90% chance you get at least one favorable
So if you rolled 3 and got zero favorables, that’s a rare outcome — and if that keeps happening, you’re either crazy unlucky or something’s off.
And this is all I am saying happened with that crystal.
Getting 3 unfavorable is like 10% chance.
But combine that with last 1/2 dozen garbage pulls (just awakening Red Hulk), then forgive me if I have questions.
The crystals aren't rigged. Each champ has a equal chance to drop. Take the tinfoil off.
Second, if the crystals are skewed, even by a relatively small amount, this would show up in crystal opening tests. What makes statistical analysis so powerful is that across large amounts of data, small skews will build up and become significant. This has been tested many, many, many, many, many times with different crystals. If the crystals have a skew, it has to be small enough to evade detection. And that small of a skew would change your odds of seeing a bad set of pulls by single digit percentages. In other words, if the skew was strong enough to be responsible for changing the pulls you see from something where you are likely to see favorable pulls to seeing unfavorable ones noticeably enough for your eyes to just see, it would be detectable. If it is not, your eyes can’t see it.
To put it another way, while there’s no way to prove crystal odds are in fact perfectly equal, we can say with certainty that if there is a distribution flaw, it is so small that it will not eliminate the chances of you seeing an unlucky pull. It will instead change the number of players who see that unlucky pull by a few. Like 9000 players see it instead of 10,000 players. Any skew that changes things from thousands see it to no one sees it would have been caught by now. It would be too easy to find.
This has been beaten to death. There are two myths about the crystals. One: crystal odds are obviously rigged, and we have only Kabam’s word it isn’t. Both of these are false.
Of course, maybe Kabam did not rig crystals for the first ten years of the existence of the game, but decided to start yesterday. In that case, of course no prior testing would have uncovered this. But at that point, people will just believe what they want to believe. I did enough testing back in the day to a) publish the most accurate estimates of the PHC rarity distribution, b) publish one of the most accurate estimates of the 5* featured crystal distribution (others came similarly close), and c) contribute to the accuracy of the GMC rarity estimates. These were not trivial analyses, nor were they just guesses. Any test accurate enough to determine these results would also see any skew in the drop rates high enough to be noticeable by a person just opening a few crystals.
Crystals are not obviously rigged. Every attempt to show this has failed miserably. If they are rigged, it has to be by a small enough amount that no one could see it with their own crystals without performing an actual statistical analysis. And we don’t have only Kabam’s word for this, because crystal drop rates have actually been tested. PHCs were tested, featured crystals were tested (old and new), GMCs were tested, bespoke crystals like the Cinematic crystal were tested, featured Cavs have been tested, arena crystals have been tested, daily crystals have been tested, gold crystals have been tested. I don’t know if anyone has ever tested Titan Nexus crystals, because no one to my knowledge has opened enough of them and recorded them to do a good test. Which is the point: if you don’t open enough to do a good statistical test, there’s no way your gut instinct watching a few of them will tell you anything.
Last thing: if there is a crystal distribution skew, it cannot be a bug that has gone unnoticed by Kabam. Kabam monitors the numbers of different champs dropped by different crystals. We know this because they once posted internal reports showing this. So if the crystals were bugged in such a way that they dropped way more of one champ than another, they would see this in internal reports. If they are skewed, Kabam is directly lying about it, it cannot have escaped their attention. And doing so with crystals they actually sell is a crime.
I had attempted to keep the math simple for you, but it’s clear no one is seeking to understand and is even seemingly actively trying not to understand.
(I, also, never said it was rigged. Was only pointing out that I could be entirely unlucky - but these odds are off).
Spoken like someone who knows statistics, but also a bit of computer science - to extent that you might have written a random number generator or other program.
These systems fail.
Companies sometimes don’t tell the truth.
For now, I’ll just consider myself very unlucky.
This is not specific to MCOC: I have no direct knowledge of the MCOC implemnentation, but I’ve seen other games where game AI and the animation engine and the game engine action clocks interact in complex ways that make the AI seem to behave completely differently when seemingly small changes that do not touch the AI systems happen. This is very common.
Lootboxes, on the other hand, are pretty simple constructs, and while specific implementation details differ, almost all games use the same basic weighted random partitioning algorithms. Everyone (who knows anything about anything) would know how MCOC crystals work, because almost no one reinvents the wheel for something that simple. There are very few ways for them to not do what is intended, and every one of them has been caught by the players. Stuff like straight up forgetting to put something into the drop pool, for example.
The fact that the playerbase always catches the blatant errors in random crystals, but has never ever ever caught Kabam making subtle RNG-related skews with crystals, combined with the fact that Kabam has never in its ten year history done anything absolutely perfect all of the time, means either Kabam does not rig crystals, or rigging crystals is the one thing it is magically perfect at always doing strongly enough to matter, weakly enough to never get caught, and never ever making a mistake at doing.
What are the odds of that?
If the crystals are skewed, it has to be deliberate. Because if it was a problem in the RNG, there’s a source of entropy to consider: your crystals and crystal pulls are not consecutive. Thousands of people are constantly opening crystals. It might not even be true that all of a nexus crystal drops are actually consecutive random rolls all the time. So if the crystals were bugged, they could only be bugged in one of two ways: they could drop some champs more often, or they could drop every champ equally often but be “bursty” where it sometimes dropped some champs more often, and less often at other times, so they averaged out but individual players might see a significant skew.
But that doesn’t account for the fact that individual player openings are unlikely to be consecutive. It might not even be the case that the pulls from a single Nexus crystal are consecutive. With so many crystals being opened constantly, if the game decided to give out a burst of a particular champ, that burst would get smeared out among many different players who wouldn’t see anything weird individually.
These systems do fail, and by systems I mean the entire infrastructure of random crystals from the technology to the data to the people. But when they fail, they tend to fail in obvious ways that the players notice. It is easy to conceive of big mistakes. But it is actually not easy to break a loot box in a subtle way that a) players actually notice, b) but they can’t actually prove, and c) the developer doesn’t notice in their own internal reporting.
I would have grabbed Maestro, otherwise.
And then it just keeps happening 3 BWDO and 2 RH. I’m dying over here!