Jubilent crystals are actually WORSE than SBC - Smoke and Mirrors.

I hope i am not the only one that notices this. But last year there was no "3rd tier" crystal. It was just the regular and Superior Banquet Crystals - yes they had a lower drop rate, but that was the best crystal which contained all the prizes. Now, all of the prizes are actually wrapped into the new crystals, which are roughly 2 for 3,000 units. Thats $50/crystal (or $25 after the discounts). Think about that. Then when you finally get the crystal, you have a low chance of getting something decent.

Can you imagine the amount of money you will have to spend to actually get an r5?

I'm sure they will be giving away jublent crystals with the unit deals... but damn. $100 to guarantee two of them? That's rough.

Comments

Newman0067

You could also spend thousands and get nothing. Having something guaranteed can only be a positive. I see what youre saying, but you have to visualise the worst possible outcome and use that as your comparison, because it will happen.

Cyberguy7777

Here are the 2024 superior crystal drop rates for reference. At least these were all in 1 crystal.

Let's do some math

You are guaranteed 1 Jubilent for every 15 SBC (which is roughly $75 worth of units - after all the deals and stuff they are going to run).

First you have to even GET the Jubilent crystals, THEN you have to deal with the secondary crappy drop rate, which is 1% chance to get a key or a decent prize. I dont even care about the t5a because i wont have anywhere near enough shards to make it worth while.

Here's the important part.

0.07% chance to get Jubilent × 0.01 to get one of the champs = 0.0007% chance

That’s 0.07% total probability.

In plain terms: about 1 in 1,429 attempts.

You first beat a 7% gate, then a 1% gate. The second chance only exists if the first one hits, so the probabilities multiply.

at least last year all the prizes were in one crystal.now you have to open crystals for a 7% chance of getting the good - THEN you still have the 1% chance of getting a key or a box. At least last year you had a 1% chance of getting a champ prize with EVERY SBC. Now you don't even get that. This is absolutely horrendous.

_Pez_

Yeah it's not great, the odds of things like keys are actually worse if you go the SBC+Jubilant crystal route than last year and trophy champions are actually easier to get from the greater banquet crystal this year by quite some way when compared to SBC+jubilant.

I mean the overall value might be better but if you are going for things like keys and trophy champions it isnt

Cretzu

Yep you are 100% correct. That is a 4500 unit crystal, well over $100 worth on a normal day. And you may get 3150 t5 alpha shards or a 7* crystal? Uhhhh, did anyone think this through properly?

SpiderVerse

I dont mind with the chance, as long as I got all top prize when I open all of it. Lol

Anotherconcernplayer

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2909630#Comment_2909630

Could you give us an updated after the event on how your opening went 😅

Kabam (Osaurus) Rex

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2909609#Comment_2909609

I'm a little confused how we came to the conclusions here, tbh

It appears the primary focus of the math here is on pulling a Banquet Champion from the Jubilant Crystal, which has a 4.5% chance - 5% if including Punisher. I'm unsure where the 1% figure originates.

Last year, each Crystal functioned as an independent coin flip - which, honestly, offered mostly poor value.
This year brings markedly improved SBCs, including a pity system at 15 if you miss the 7.77% drop rate on the Jubilant.

To illustrate further, if SBCs last year had a 1% Key chance, you'd expect just 1 Key per 100 SBCs on average (I opened far more and got none). This year, from 100 Crystals (excluding Milestones), assuming you don't strike out every time, you'd average 8 Jubilants.
If you're trying to avoid the T5A, that leaves an 85% shot at something immediately valuable, with a 5% Chance at a Banquet key.

Overall, you can expect vastly improved Rewards from opening SBCs and Jubilants this year compared to last, not even factoring in the improved milestones.

_Pez_

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2909634#Comment_2909634

The overall value may be better but if you average a key every 100 SBC crystals last year, 3.5% of a 7.75% crystal is lower than 1 every 100 SBCs. Same for trophy champions, the rate is worse this year.

quando213

For me, banquet is the chance to obtain the trophy champions (Jessica Jones, Weapon X, Thanos, Kang, Vision). These champions have not been available for a while, even in lower rarities.

Last year, a 7-star trophy selector was awarded to the Top 3% Realm Event Ranked Rewards, and also a Real Event milestone.

This year, it is only for Top 25 Alliance Event Ranked Rewards. This completely shut down my chance to obtain those champions.

I do not expect to get Punisher at all since he is the brand new trophy champ, but the older champs like Jessica Jones, Weapon X, Vision, and even Scarlet Witch Classic, could have been included. Their exclusion ruined this year's banquet for me.

Zacharias10719

That t5a drop rate is way too high for the amount you get. I get it's there for the whale chase but there has to be a better way to satisfy that need. That's a L pull for the majority of the player base who will have no need for it for 3-6 months.

Usagicassidy

It really is wild to do a whole buff and visual overhaul of a champ that like .2% of players will get.

Diplodocus

Chances of a banquet champion in GBC in 2023: 0.1%

Chances of a banquet key in SBC in 2024: 0.3%

Chances of a banquet box champion in SBC in 2025: 0.0775× ( 3.5+1)%=0.34%

I am not a big fan of jubilant crystals due to the sheer presence of t5 alpha in it but the matter of fact is that chance of pulling a banquet champion has increased over years even if it increased by a bare minimum.

Diplodocus

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2909636#Comment_2909636

Except it was never 1%. It was 0.3% which is still a little bit lower than this year crystal (0.0775×(3.5+1)%= .34875%)

_Pez_

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2909644#Comment_2909644

I'll stand corrected on that, I was going by what Kabam Rex said above that it was 1 every 100 on average

peixemacaco

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2909634#Comment_2909634

Herbal_Taxman

Bros. The issues with banquet are the same. Every year, they are the same.

If you look at the milestones you can earn and you don’t find the milestones compelling, you are setting yourself up for a few deeply frustrating weeks.

The drop rates and crystal structure may change, but the facts are, if you go into this event hoping to pull a trophy champ, or get all six keys without spending $$$, or forming enough r5s to r5 a champ, you are doing it wrong.

If you think the milestones are good and will help your account (like I do), then treat the crystal drops as gravy. But if you NEED th crystals to break in your favor in order to to feel good about the event, you are probably going to be disappointed.

CaptainIT

By going with that math, it's going to be 1 in almost 200 sbcs that we need to open to get an actual banquet box key, giving that we have only 5% chance to get it from jubilant crystals, which is way worse than last year.

Finalfuryk

You guys are crazy if you think this system is worse than last year's. There is so much more value by just not having tier 6 and tier 3 in the crystals and hitting a jackpot crystal with a 85% chance of getting something genuinely useful is way better every 15 crystals minimum. I agree that if you're on the tier 5 chase these crystals are less valuable than the tier 7 chase last year but that is for the biggest of uber whales. Also, I would not be shocked if we got a promo code with a jubilant crystal and at least one with the Christmas gift.

This really feels like people just being mad to be mad.

spiderknight616

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2909715#Comment_2909715

90% of the forums is people just being mad to be mad

Herbal_Taxman

From Crashed, just now:

Kudos to Kabam for watching the feedback and acting before the event begins…

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/408759/jubilant-crystal-update

KabamPinwheel

Beat me to it, was just about to link that in here. Thank you to everyone for the respectful and constructive feedback on this point!

Grimmreaper101

I open 13 and got 2 keys so it was all that i guess

Cyberguy7777

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2909700#Comment_2909700

Can you please sahare how you came to a 5% change to pull a punisher? You mean 5% chance after the already low 8% change needed to even get the crystal in the first place?

Cyberguy7777

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2909712#Comment_2909712

SOrry but you're wrong on this. it may APPEAR that way, but having a 3rd crystal /RNG greately diminishes your odds of getting anything good.

Cyberguy7777

Here is an update. I spent $200 for 7k units. i also bought the Superior deals, so $300 total. I ended up with 6 jubilent crystals.

I got:
1x 7* nexus
6200 t5 shards
5x 7* sigstones (really???)
1 titan

NOT worth $300.