"Random"

My last 5 5* pulls in order:

Luke cage
Luke cage
Lady Thor
Superior iron man
Superior iron man

Seems real random. Nothing else going on there at all I'm sure....

Also 0/12 on featured pulls. Good work kabam on your gambling scheme. Can't wait until you have to divulge the odds to Apple.

Comments

BitterSteel

If you had got
Ghost rider
Ghost rider
Voodoo
Stark spidey
Stark spidey

Would you have thought, hmm that doesn’t seem random, I think kabam are messing with the odds. I’d better make a post about this on the forum. Would you?

No. Because that’s not how people work. They only assume odds are being tampered with when they get bad pulls. If you get good pulls then you smile and laugh and think how lucky you are, but when you get bad pulls you curse kabam and make posts like this on the forum. So let me ask you, why are YOU lucky when you get good pulls, but KABAM are to blame when you get bad pulls?

The only reason we see so many of these posts are because people only post when they get bad pulls, not when they get good pulls. The 5 pulls I wrote above have been got by someone else. But they didn’t post about it. Each are equally likely.

mum_m2

I've got the same problem on T4CC crystals and collecting cosmic champions. I've opened 4 science t4cc's in a row, and of the 9 t4cc crystals i've opened 5 of them have been science. It's stalling my progression. I know a lot of other people with the same issues. I'm not opening another one until the drop rates are confirmed even between all classes because there's no way this should be happening. Science is pulled at least 50% of the time.

unknown

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WhatRYou

This reminds me of my visits at the casino and seeing 15 blacks in a row on Roulette tables! It happens!!
Flip a perfectly balanced coin, you might get shocked by the results!
I get your point, playing 3 years and pulling back to back champs or pulling the same champ as my ally in the same hour is very weird but very possible!!

Mana_Pot

BitterSteel wrote: »

If you had got
Ghost rider
Ghost rider
Voodoo
Stark spidey
Stark spidey

Would you have thought, hmm that doesn’t seem random, I think kabam are messing with the odds. I’d better make a post about this on the forum. Would you?

No. Because that’s not how people work. They only assume odds are being tampered with when they get bad pulls. If you get good pulls then you smile and laugh and think how lucky you are, but when you get bad pulls you curse kabam and make posts like this on the forum. So let me ask you, why are YOU lucky when you get good pulls, but KABAM are to blame when you get bad pulls?

The only reason we see so many of these posts are because people only post when they get bad pulls, not when they get good pulls. The 5 pulls I wrote above have been got by someone else. But they didn’t post about it. Each are equally likely.

Savage. Wish Sentry hit this hard.

unknown

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Spurgeon14

BitterSteel wrote: »

If you had got
Ghost rider
Ghost rider
Voodoo
Stark spidey
Stark spidey

Would you have thought, hmm that doesn’t seem random, I think kabam are messing with the odds. I’d better make a post about this on the forum. Would you?

No. Because that’s not how people work. They only assume odds are being tampered with when they get bad pulls. If you get good pulls then you smile and laugh and think how lucky you are, but when you get bad pulls you curse kabam and make posts like this on the forum. So let me ask you, why are YOU lucky when you get good pulls, but KABAM are to blame when you get bad pulls?

The only reason we see so many of these posts are because people only post when they get bad pulls, not when they get good pulls. The 5 pulls I wrote above have been got by someone else. But they didn’t post about it. Each are equally likely.

Nice point, except the good pulls never happen like that. I think that's why people get frustrated. They get more "luck" with bad champs which makes it seem like drop rates are lower for good champs whether that is factual or not.

Chitlins

Hubris_hater wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

Hubris_hater wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

My last 5 5* pulls in order:

Luke cage
Luke cage
Lady Thor
Superior iron man
Superior iron man

Seems real random. Nothing else going on there at all I'm sure....

Also 0/12 on featured pulls. Good work kabam on your gambling scheme. Can't wait until you have to divulge the odds to Apple.

Serioulsy, thats random? @BitterSteel said it right, you get better pulls you wouldn't be moaning?

And Kabam will not have to show any odds at all either:

Simply put:

* only items bought with currency would be covered by these new rules. Only them. If you buy units, they are covered. If you use those units to buy something in game, that purchase is not covered by the new rules so no DRs are needed. Not me saying this, this is actually the case, the facts
* Apple have assed the IAPs in this game several times in the last 3 years, every time they said in-game purchases are not counted as loot boxes, every time
* This is not gambling in any way at all according to law, in any country in the whole world, apart from China. Even there, games simply changed what they sold and added "free" items that didnt need DRs
* If you get a reward in this game, that is free and DRs dont have to be shown at all
* If you pop a crystal of a certain level, ie say a 5*, the DR is 100% that you get a 5*. Thats it, no DR will be shown per character
* You will only see the DRs (if shown) that you have, you wont see other peoples. Kabam (and all games) are allowed to offer different DRs to different people if they want to
* There are currently no items that we can purchase with currency (apart from PHCs and Daily specials) that would even require DRs if they had to show them
* Apples deadline was 15 days ago, nothing has changed at all

So any 5 star you pull will be 100% drop rate a 5 star, NOT per character

Oh you know me so well, you must know me in real life.

And obviously I wouldn't complain about good pulls but I would still think something is up. When I see people get crazy pulls constantly from featured crystals it makes me believe things aren't random.

Don't you think the same? You don't notice a pattern here? If you do then chill out and stop being a ****.

NO I dont think the same. NO I dont see a pattern at all here. NO im not the one being a **** here and posting an ill thought out ranting post with no merit at all

So, actually just a NO

Go back to Reddit.

And if you don't notice how some players have far superior 'lucky' than others you need to open your eyes.

unknown

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unknown

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Solswerd

If only this game required players to take courses in Statistics and Probability...but instead we get these overly defensive whiny threads.

Chitlins

Hubris_hater wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

Hubris_hater wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

Hubris_hater wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

My last 5 5* pulls in order:

Luke cage
Luke cage
Lady Thor
Superior iron man
Superior iron man

Seems real random. Nothing else going on there at all I'm sure....

Also 0/12 on featured pulls. Good work kabam on your gambling scheme. Can't wait until you have to divulge the odds to Apple.

Serioulsy, thats random? @BitterSteel said it right, you get better pulls you wouldn't be moaning?

And Kabam will not have to show any odds at all either:

Simply put:

* only items bought with currency would be covered by these new rules. Only them. If you buy units, they are covered. If you use those units to buy something in game, that purchase is not covered by the new rules so no DRs are needed. Not me saying this, this is actually the case, the facts
* Apple have assed the IAPs in this game several times in the last 3 years, every time they said in-game purchases are not counted as loot boxes, every time
* This is not gambling in any way at all according to law, in any country in the whole world, apart from China. Even there, games simply changed what they sold and added "free" items that didnt need DRs
* If you get a reward in this game, that is free and DRs dont have to be shown at all
* If you pop a crystal of a certain level, ie say a 5*, the DR is 100% that you get a 5*. Thats it, no DR will be shown per character
* You will only see the DRs (if shown) that you have, you wont see other peoples. Kabam (and all games) are allowed to offer different DRs to different people if they want to
* There are currently no items that we can purchase with currency (apart from PHCs and Daily specials) that would even require DRs if they had to show them
* Apples deadline was 15 days ago, nothing has changed at all

So any 5 star you pull will be 100% drop rate a 5 star, NOT per character

Oh you know me so well, you must know me in real life.

And obviously I wouldn't complain about good pulls but I would still think something is up. When I see people get crazy pulls constantly from featured crystals it makes me believe things aren't random.

Don't you think the same? You don't notice a pattern here? If you do then chill out and stop being a ****.

NO I dont think the same. NO I dont see a pattern at all here. NO im not the one being a **** here and posting an ill thought out ranting post with no merit at all

So, actually just a NO

Go back to Reddit.

And if you don't notice how some players have far superior 'lucky' than others you need to open your eyes.

You really cant teach stupid can you lol

Did you win the lottery this week? Someone did

Did you die in an accident this week? Someone did

Luck is in every single thing we do in life. Doesnt mean its fixed, thats why its called luck

I'm simply stating the statistic probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row, twice in 5 pulls when there are roughly 80 champs to pull is ridiculously low. What we call randomness is really not random in general, but a 1/80 chance makes it statistically improbable that my situation would occur. And I've seen multiple people have the same problem.

unknown

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Bahamut

About a week ago someone showed that their alliance ally got 4 flux crystals (festered 5* MODOK) and got MODOK out of every crystal. While I have 5* Civil Warrior, Venompool, and Cyclops BT from 3 of my 5 5* Crystals. Grandmasters Favor indeed

Vision_41

At least you duped Superior Iron Man and Luke Cage. Better than unduped.

RagamugginGunner

mum_m2 wrote: »

I've got the same problem on T4CC crystals and collecting cosmic champions. I've opened 4 science t4cc's in a row, and of the 9 t4cc crystals i've opened 5 of them have been science. It's stalling my progression. I know a lot of other people with the same issues. I'm not opening another one until the drop rates are confirmed even between all classes because there's no way this should be happening. Science is pulled at least 50% of the time.

After finishing 5.4 I needed 4 skill cats to r5 Blade. I opened 24 t4c crystals and didn't get a single skill. I had to rank down my 4* Black Widow and open 250+ t4cc frag crystals to get the skill cats.

Funny how when you need something you never open 4 in a row.

Arus25

I calculated all my t4cc
Overall i get for all are 20 each
So that fair

My last few 5* pull are
Civil warrior
X23
X23
Magneto
Archangel
Gwenpool

GroundedWisdom

Spurgeo14 wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

If you had got
Ghost rider
Ghost rider
Voodoo
Stark spidey
Stark spidey

Would you have thought, hmm that doesn’t seem random, I think kabam are messing with the odds. I’d better make a post about this on the forum. Would you?

No. Because that’s not how people work. They only assume odds are being tampered with when they get bad pulls. If you get good pulls then you smile and laugh and think how lucky you are, but when you get bad pulls you curse kabam and make posts like this on the forum. So let me ask you, why are YOU lucky when you get good pulls, but KABAM are to blame when you get bad pulls?

The only reason we see so many of these posts are because people only post when they get bad pulls, not when they get good pulls. The 5 pulls I wrote above have been got by someone else. But they didn’t post about it. Each are equally likely.

Nice point, except the good pulls never happen like that. I think that's why people get frustrated. They get more "luck" with bad champs which makes it seem like drop rates are lower for good champs whether that is factual or not.

They happen all the time like that. It's RNG. It's entirely possible to pull the same Champ because the computer doesn't change the outcome based on what you pulled previously. You could pull the same Champ 100 times, but that would be very unlikely. People pull multiple Champs in their favor all the time. The difference is they don't come here to vent about it. They call themselves lucky.

DNA3000

Chitlins wrote: »

Hubris_hater wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

Hubris_hater wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

Hubris_hater wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

My last 5 5* pulls in order:

Luke cage
Luke cage
Lady Thor
Superior iron man
Superior iron man

Seems real random. Nothing else going on there at all I'm sure....

Also 0/12 on featured pulls. Good work kabam on your gambling scheme. Can't wait until you have to divulge the odds to Apple.

Serioulsy, thats random? @BitterSteel said it right, you get better pulls you wouldn't be moaning?

And Kabam will not have to show any odds at all either:

Simply put:

* only items bought with currency would be covered by these new rules. Only them. If you buy units, they are covered. If you use those units to buy something in game, that purchase is not covered by the new rules so no DRs are needed. Not me saying this, this is actually the case, the facts
* Apple have assed the IAPs in this game several times in the last 3 years, every time they said in-game purchases are not counted as loot boxes, every time
* This is not gambling in any way at all according to law, in any country in the whole world, apart from China. Even there, games simply changed what they sold and added "free" items that didnt need DRs
* If you get a reward in this game, that is free and DRs dont have to be shown at all
* If you pop a crystal of a certain level, ie say a 5*, the DR is 100% that you get a 5*. Thats it, no DR will be shown per character
* You will only see the DRs (if shown) that you have, you wont see other peoples. Kabam (and all games) are allowed to offer different DRs to different people if they want to
* There are currently no items that we can purchase with currency (apart from PHCs and Daily specials) that would even require DRs if they had to show them
* Apples deadline was 15 days ago, nothing has changed at all

So any 5 star you pull will be 100% drop rate a 5 star, NOT per character

Oh you know me so well, you must know me in real life.

And obviously I wouldn't complain about good pulls but I would still think something is up. When I see people get crazy pulls constantly from featured crystals it makes me believe things aren't random.

Don't you think the same? You don't notice a pattern here? If you do then chill out and stop being a ****.

NO I dont think the same. NO I dont see a pattern at all here. NO im not the one being a **** here and posting an ill thought out ranting post with no merit at all

So, actually just a NO

Go back to Reddit.

And if you don't notice how some players have far superior 'lucky' than others you need to open your eyes.

You really cant teach stupid can you lol

Did you win the lottery this week? Someone did

Did you die in an accident this week? Someone did

Luck is in every single thing we do in life. Doesnt mean its fixed, thats why its called luck

I'm simply stating the statistic probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row, twice in 5 pulls when there are roughly 80 champs to pull is ridiculously low. What we call randomness is really not random in general, but a 1/80 chance makes it statistically improbable that my situation would occur. And I've seen multiple people have the same problem.

That's not how probability works. The odds of pulling Luke Cage twice in a row are identical to, say, pulling Hyperion followed by Dr. Voodoo. The odds of any two *specific* champions being pulled in sequence is the same, if the odds of pulling any particular one is the same. It is dangerous to assess the odds of something happening *after* it happened because this is vulnerable to post facto pigeonholing.

What's more, most people don't see statistically unskewed samples. They see what people report, and people tend to report noteworthy pulls more than ordinary ones. The odds of pulling Luke Cage twice in a row are low, but the odds of pulling any random champion twice in a row are much better. The odds of pulling two champions considered not good in a row are actually very high.

That's not even counting the fact that most people can't do statistical math. If the odds of pulling any particular champion were one in 80, then the odds of pulling one champion twice in five pulls is actually one in 8.31. That is not wildly improbable. Everyone likely knows multiple players that had this happen to them, or had this happen to themselves.

bm3epps

Chitlins wrote: »

My last 5 5* pulls in order:

Luke cage
Luke cage
Lady Thor
Superior iron man
Superior iron man

Seems real random. Nothing else going on there at all I'm sure....

Also 0/12 on featured pulls. Good work kabam on your gambling scheme. Can't wait until you have to divulge the odds to Apple.

I would probably take a break if I pulled those champs minus Lady Thor..lol

GroundedWisdom

bm3epps wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

My last 5 5* pulls in order:

Luke cage
Luke cage
Lady Thor
Superior iron man
Superior iron man

Seems real random. Nothing else going on there at all I'm sure....

Also 0/12 on featured pulls. Good work kabam on your gambling scheme. Can't wait until you have to divulge the odds to Apple.

I would probably take a break if I pulled those champs minus Lady Thor..lol

I'd take the SIM Dup.

ContestOfNoobs

Chitlins wrote: »

My last 5 5* pulls in order:

Luke cage
Luke cage
Lady Thor
Superior iron man
Superior iron man

Seems real random. Nothing else going on there at all I'm sure....

Also 0/12 on featured pulls. Good work kabam on your gambling scheme. Can't wait until you have to divulge the odds to Apple.

@Chitlins

for my featured pulls

2/2 blade
2/3 stark enhanced
1/1 modok

Do u know how much my alliance hates me?

pulled modok 5* from 5 FGMC
if u seen dorky videos of some dude who did 90 pulls FGMC and didn't get a single 5*
he even bought units on live stream to pull them.

serfi7

I don't understand the discussion of bad luck or good luck. The point is if the game is completely random or not. This means: are there the same probability to find a champions. i think the answer is negative. For example the the odds to open 5 crystal and find only 3 characters with 2 times double it is very very low, considering the numbers of different champion. This is only an example but there are many others in my experience

NEO

RNG...

NEO

Pulled this lovely lady last night. Made up for the Luke Cage 5* last week.

science22

Just before this I pulled-

Iceman 5*
Wolvie X 23 4*
Rogue 4 *
Angela 4*
*_Joe Fixit_* 4*
Doctor Octopus 4*
Nightcrawler 5*

..and that was just this year(after I went inactive for several months)

unknown

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serfi7

Did you read my post? I did not want to loose time to made precise calculations. I made this many times in the past and I convinced myself that the odds are not the same otherwise there will be too many inconsistencies.
Obviously any event it is possible. It is clear that if you open a crystal, then there are 1/72 possibilities to obtain the same character (assuming the the odd does not change!!!!!). The event to open 5 crystals and find one time the same character it is obvious higher (assuming the the odd does not change!!!!!). In this case the odds is 13,3% with 72 characters and 12% with 80 as in the calculation you mentioned. The event to open 5 crystals and find two times double character is much lesser (assuming the the odd does not change!!!!!). I have no time to do this calculation it is more complicated of the previous one.
you showed in a previous comment that you don't read others posts. In fact you made wrong considerations and you said that the post of the others are stupid. I refer to your answer to Chitlins. He mentioned an event and you refer to a completely different event. The odds depends on the event that you choice.
You take the axiom that the odd does not change!!!!!. I think that this is not true. In order to verify this we can only fix a precise event made a large numbers (very large) of attempts and see if the results are in accordance with the precise probability that we calculate if we assume that the axiom that the odds does not change is true. If the statistical results are different from the precise probability that we can calculate assuming the axiom than I am right otherwise I am wrong.

serfi7

Zenio

👀