"Random"
Chitlins
Member Posts: 164 ★★
My last 5 5* pulls in order:
Luke cage
Luke cage
Lady Thor
Superior iron man
Superior iron man
Seems real random. Nothing else going on there at all I'm sure....
Also 0/12 on featured pulls. Good work kabam on your gambling scheme. Can't wait until you have to divulge the odds to Apple.
Luke cage
Luke cage
Lady Thor
Superior iron man
Superior iron man
Seems real random. Nothing else going on there at all I'm sure....
Also 0/12 on featured pulls. Good work kabam on your gambling scheme. Can't wait until you have to divulge the odds to Apple.
4
Comments
Ghost rider
Ghost rider
Voodoo
Stark spidey
Stark spidey
Would you have thought, hmm that doesn’t seem random, I think kabam are messing with the odds. I’d better make a post about this on the forum. Would you?
No. Because that’s not how people work. They only assume odds are being tampered with when they get bad pulls. If you get good pulls then you smile and laugh and think how lucky you are, but when you get bad pulls you curse kabam and make posts like this on the forum. So let me ask you, why are YOU lucky when you get good pulls, but KABAM are to blame when you get bad pulls?
The only reason we see so many of these posts are because people only post when they get bad pulls, not when they get good pulls. The 5 pulls I wrote above have been got by someone else. But they didn’t post about it. Each are equally likely.
Flip a perfectly balanced coin, you might get shocked by the results!
I get your point, playing 3 years and pulling back to back champs or pulling the same champ as my ally in the same hour is very weird but very possible!!
Savage. Wish Sentry hit this hard.
Nice point, except the good pulls never happen like that. I think that's why people get frustrated. They get more "luck" with bad champs which makes it seem like drop rates are lower for good champs whether that is factual or not.
Go back to Reddit.
And if you don't notice how some players have far superior 'lucky' than others you need to open your eyes.
I'm simply stating the statistic probability of pulling the same champ twice in a row, twice in 5 pulls when there are roughly 80 champs to pull is ridiculously low. What we call randomness is really not random in general, but a 1/80 chance makes it statistically improbable that my situation would occur. And I've seen multiple people have the same problem.
After finishing 5.4 I needed 4 skill cats to r5 Blade. I opened 24 t4c crystals and didn't get a single skill. I had to rank down my 4* Black Widow and open 250+ t4cc frag crystals to get the skill cats.
Funny how when you need something you never open 4 in a row.
Overall i get for all are 20 each
So that fair
My last few 5* pull are
Civil warrior
X23
X23
Magneto
Archangel
Gwenpool
That's not how probability works. The odds of pulling Luke Cage twice in a row are identical to, say, pulling Hyperion followed by Dr. Voodoo. The odds of any two *specific* champions being pulled in sequence is the same, if the odds of pulling any particular one is the same. It is dangerous to assess the odds of something happening *after* it happened because this is vulnerable to post facto pigeonholing.
What's more, most people don't see statistically unskewed samples. They see what people report, and people tend to report noteworthy pulls more than ordinary ones. The odds of pulling Luke Cage twice in a row are low, but the odds of pulling any random champion twice in a row are much better. The odds of pulling two champions considered not good in a row are actually very high.
That's not even counting the fact that most people can't do statistical math. If the odds of pulling any particular champion were one in 80, then the odds of pulling one champion twice in five pulls is actually one in 8.31. That is not wildly improbable. Everyone likely knows multiple players that had this happen to them, or had this happen to themselves.
I would probably take a break if I pulled those champs minus Lady Thor..lol
I'd take the SIM Dup.
@Chitlins
for my featured pulls
2/2 blade
2/3 stark enhanced
1/1 modok
Do u know how much my alliance hates me?
pulled modok 5* from 5 FGMC
if u seen dorky videos of some dude who did 90 pulls FGMC and didn't get a single 5*
he even bought units on live stream to pull them.
Iceman 5*
Wolvie X 23 4*
Rogue 4 *
Angela 4*
*_Joe Fixit_* 4*
Doctor Octopus 4*
Nightcrawler 5*
..and that was just this year(after I went inactive for several months)
Obviously any event it is possible. It is clear that if you open a crystal, then there are 1/72 possibilities to obtain the same character (assuming the the odd does not change!!!!!). The event to open 5 crystals and find one time the same character it is obvious higher (assuming the the odd does not change!!!!!). In this case the odds is 13,3% with 72 characters and 12% with 80 as in the calculation you mentioned. The event to open 5 crystals and find two times double character is much lesser (assuming the the odd does not change!!!!!). I have no time to do this calculation it is more complicated of the previous one.
you showed in a previous comment that you don't read others posts. In fact you made wrong considerations and you said that the post of the others are stupid. I refer to your answer to Chitlins. He mentioned an event and you refer to a completely different event. The odds depends on the event that you choice.
You take the axiom that the odd does not change!!!!!. I think that this is not true. In order to verify this we can only fix a precise event made a large numbers (very large) of attempts and see if the results are in accordance with the precise probability that we calculate if we assume that the axiom that the odds does not change is true. If the statistical results are different from the precise probability that we can calculate assuming the axiom than I am right otherwise I am wrong.