When is it no longer just bad luck?

Last 5 days from arena crystals:

90 units - 40 crystals
70 units - 30 crystals
105 units - 45 crystals
165 units - 65 crystals
105 units - 45 crystals

I can't even manage a 3 unit per crystal average in any of those 5 days.

I would have added this to my previous thread, but (shocker) it's gone. In it I mentioned how my daily average has severly dipped in the past 2 months, which constitutes a couple thousand crystals.

Again, I ask when does it stop being bad luck?

Comments

GroundedWisdom

Those numbers are consistent with what I see. Actually, those are pretty good hauls. I find they come and go in waves. They're random and scattered. My personal best was 105 Units in 4 Crystals. Your luck seems fine.

Deadbyrd9

Last 30 I opened were all gold and no units

BitterSteel

It stops being bad luck if kabam came out with their hands up saying "look guys we purposely rigged it for Fthewigg. Mybad."

Until then it's your suspicion

wappykid

my personal best is 90 units in 2 arena crystals

Anewguy

It becomes more than bad luck if you somehow pull a 2* Spider-Gwen from those crystals.

Rotmgmoddy

It's really difficult to say when the drop rate has been altered or not, or whether it's your bad luck.

I had a good period of time where I was having awful luck with crystals. On average, about 15 units per 20 arena crystals, when before, I was getting 30 units per 10 arena crystals. While it was natural for me to suspect, I cannot confirm if it's my luck or drop rate alteration. It happens, it's frustrating, but unfortunately, RNG works that way...

Fthewigg

BitterSteel wrote: »

It stops being bad luck if kabam came out with their hands up saying "look guys we purposely rigged it for Fthewigg. Mybad."

Until then it's your suspicion

Suspicion really unnecessary: for about 6 months I would average over 150 units from 40 crystals. Now, it's probably below 120 for the same amount.

Great input, tho, thx! Still waiting for an answer to my question. How many thousands of crystals until bad luck can no longer be the excuse?

rishisai

This was my best

BitterSteel

Fthewigg wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

It stops being bad luck if kabam came out with their hands up saying "look guys we purposely rigged it for Fthewigg. Mybad."

Until then it's your suspicion

Suspicion really unnecessary: for about 6 months I would average over 150 units from 40 crystals. Now, it's probably below 120 for the same amount.

Great input, tho, thx! Still waiting for an answer to my question. How many thousands of crystals until bad luck can no longer be the excuse?

3.75 units per crystal down to 3 units per crystal is not a drop that means kabam have changed the odds. That just means you aren't being as lucky. What about someone who used to get 1 unit per crystal and had a lucky patch and shot up to 5 units per crystal? Does that mean kabam have changed the drop rates for them?

I'm not a supporter of many of kabams decisions but there is no cause for concern about the drop rates, its a conspiracy theorists tin foil hat.

Fthewigg

BitterSteel wrote: »

Fthewigg wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

It stops being bad luck if kabam came out with their hands up saying "look guys we purposely rigged it for Fthewigg. Mybad."

Until then it's your suspicion

Suspicion really unnecessary: for about 6 months I would average over 150 units from 40 crystals. Now, it's probably below 120 for the same amount.

Great input, tho, thx! Still waiting for an answer to my question. How many thousands of crystals until bad luck can no longer be the excuse?

3.75 units per crystal down to 3 units per crystal is not a drop that means kabam have changed the odds. That just means you aren't being as lucky. What about someone who used to get 1 unit per crystal and had a lucky patch and shot up to 5 units per crystal? Does that mean kabam have changed the drop rates for them?

I'm not a supporter of many of kabams decisions but there is no cause for concern about the drop rates, its a conspiracy theorists tin foil hat.

Still not addressing my point Mr Anonymity, how many thousands of crystals until it is a trend. I'm over 2k now with a significant drop off.

BitterSteel

Fthewigg wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

Fthewigg wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

It stops being bad luck if kabam came out with their hands up saying "look guys we purposely rigged it for Fthewigg. Mybad."

Until then it's your suspicion

Suspicion really unnecessary: for about 6 months I would average over 150 units from 40 crystals. Now, it's probably below 120 for the same amount.

Great input, tho, thx! Still waiting for an answer to my question. How many thousands of crystals until bad luck can no longer be the excuse?

3.75 units per crystal down to 3 units per crystal is not a drop that means kabam have changed the odds. That just means you aren't being as lucky. What about someone who used to get 1 unit per crystal and had a lucky patch and shot up to 5 units per crystal? Does that mean kabam have changed the drop rates for them?

I'm not a supporter of many of kabams decisions but there is no cause for concern about the drop rates, its a conspiracy theorists tin foil hat.

Still not addressing my point Mr Anonymity, how many thousands of crystals until it is a trend. I'm over 2k now with a significant drop off.

What are you trying to say by calling me Mr Anonymity? Bit of an odd insult.
You'd need hundreds of thousands of crystals that you open to accurately ascertain whether your drop rate personally has been altered. That would give you your mean drop rate. Then you'd need to collect data from hundereds of thousands of crystals for about a thousand other accounts so you can get a mean drop rate for a range of accounts.

If you come back to me having done that and then performing a statistical test to see if the results of the two means have any significant difference then I will gladly apologise to you and admit you're right.

Fthewigg

BitterSteel wrote: »

Fthewigg wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

Fthewigg wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

It stops being bad luck if kabam came out with their hands up saying "look guys we purposely rigged it for Fthewigg. Mybad."

Until then it's your suspicion

Suspicion really unnecessary: for about 6 months I would average over 150 units from 40 crystals. Now, it's probably below 120 for the same amount.

Great input, tho, thx! Still waiting for an answer to my question. How many thousands of crystals until bad luck can no longer be the excuse?

3.75 units per crystal down to 3 units per crystal is not a drop that means kabam have changed the odds. That just means you aren't being as lucky. What about someone who used to get 1 unit per crystal and had a lucky patch and shot up to 5 units per crystal? Does that mean kabam have changed the drop rates for them?

I'm not a supporter of many of kabams decisions but there is no cause for concern about the drop rates, its a conspiracy theorists tin foil hat.

Still not addressing my point Mr Anonymity, how many thousands of crystals until it is a trend. I'm over 2k now with a significant drop off.

What are you trying to say by calling me Mr Anonymity? Bit of an odd insult.
You'd need hundreds of thousands of crystals that you open to accurately ascertain whether your drop rate personally has been altered. That would give you your mean drop rate. Then you'd need to collect data from hundereds of thousands of crystals for about a thousand other accounts so you can get a mean drop rate for a range of accounts.

If you come back to me having done that and then performing a statistical test to see if the results of the two means have any significant difference then I will gladly apologise to you and admit you're right.

I'll get right on it since you finally bothered to address my point. Your apology is worth every bit of it (fyi, z in apologize). Also, when did I ever state, let alone imply, my drop rate is different than anyone else?

In regards to the anonymity bit, it refers to a childish snippet you issued, which I have tried to remedy with no success.

Berserk_Nation

There's definitely been a drop in units awarded from arena crystals. I've seen it in my 57K arena wins.

CoatHang3r

Definitely not a drop in units based on my 187k arena wins.

~3.5 per crystal alsways been my average.

Here is a 1227 opening with a 3.7 average, it's at the end of the video.

[video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nl9YUOIGfRg[/video]

BitterSteel

Fthewigg wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

Fthewigg wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

Fthewigg wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

It stops being bad luck if kabam came out with their hands up saying "look guys we purposely rigged it for Fthewigg. Mybad."

Until then it's your suspicion

Suspicion really unnecessary: for about 6 months I would average over 150 units from 40 crystals. Now, it's probably below 120 for the same amount.

Great input, tho, thx! Still waiting for an answer to my question. How many thousands of crystals until bad luck can no longer be the excuse?

3.75 units per crystal down to 3 units per crystal is not a drop that means kabam have changed the odds. That just means you aren't being as lucky. What about someone who used to get 1 unit per crystal and had a lucky patch and shot up to 5 units per crystal? Does that mean kabam have changed the drop rates for them?

I'm not a supporter of many of kabams decisions but there is no cause for concern about the drop rates, its a conspiracy theorists tin foil hat.

Still not addressing my point Mr Anonymity, how many thousands of crystals until it is a trend. I'm over 2k now with a significant drop off.

What are you trying to say by calling me Mr Anonymity? Bit of an odd insult.
You'd need hundreds of thousands of crystals that you open to accurately ascertain whether your drop rate personally has been altered. That would give you your mean drop rate. Then you'd need to collect data from hundereds of thousands of crystals for about a thousand other accounts so you can get a mean drop rate for a range of accounts.

If you come back to me having done that and then performing a statistical test to see if the results of the two means have any significant difference then I will gladly apologise to you and admit you're right.

I'll get right on it since you finally bothered to address my point. Your apology is worth every bit of it (fyi, z in apologize). Also, when did I ever state, let alone imply, my drop rate is different than anyone else?

In regards to the anonymity bit, it refers to a childish snippet you issued, which I have tried to remedy with no success.

There is no Z in apologise in the language Im speaking. English. From England. Not bothered if you want to change the language and speak it wrong but don't correct me when I speak it the way it's supposed to.

Also I havnt apologised, when you prove that the drop rate has changed then I will.

I guess to prove the drop rate has changed you'll also have to go through every YouTube video and work out the mean drop rate, then perform your statistical test on that mean, but then again you can never be sure about the bias involved since you tubers may not upload crystals with bad results.

Once you've done that and proved there is a statistical significant difference then I will apologise (notice the s)

And I'm not sure what you're talking about with the anonymity thing but great, good luck remedying it in future.

BitterSteel

Berserk_Nation wrote: »

There's definitely been a drop in units awarded from arena crystals. I've seen it in my 57K arena wins.

Show me the proof and I'll believe you

unknown

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