OK, Kabam, you need to explain this one to me

I'm a relatively new player, started in March, with two accounts. I have, as of today, four 5-stars on one account and five 5-stars on the other.

Here's the weird thing, and I swear this is the truth:

After the Gwenpool contest, I opened a five star on each account on the same day, really within the same few minutes of each other. Both pulls were a Hulk Ragnarok. I don't know how many champs are in the basic crystal, but it looks like dozens. Anyway, I chalked that up to a small but real probability of that happening.

Today I opened a 5-star on each account, and -- I tell no lie -- I pulled Nightcrawler on both.

Now I'm not complaining. I dig Gulk and Nightcrawler. Great champs. But you gotta admit that this is pretty weird. The chances of this happening once to me seems astronomical, but twice? Out of only a handful of 5-star pulls I've done?

Truly bizarre.

Comments

Mishman07

My case is much worse, out of 30 four star champs I am having only 3 tech and 3 cosmic champs (all 6 are of trash category) and kabam gave me hulkbuster three time in a row and SIM two times in a row.

Colinwhitworth69

Mishman07 wrote: »

My case is much worse, out of 30 four star champs I am having only 3 tech and 3 cosmic champs (all 6 are of trash category) and kabam gave me hulkbuster three time in a row and SIM two times in a row.

I don't consider my situation bad, just perplexing from a stats point of view.

As to your case, I will say that when I started collecting 4-star champs, one account was mutant heavy for a long time, and the other was skill heavy. That's no longer the case, really. My 4-star rosters are pretty spread out over the classes.

CoatHang3r

The odds are about 1:~100 or about the same as matching one number and the powerball in the powerball lottery (which pays 4$).

Colinwhitworth69

CoatHang3r wrote: »

The odds are about 1:~100 or about the same as matching one number and the powerball in the powerball lottery (which pays 4$).

Not sure I follow. There is a one percent chance of me pulling the same champ on two different accounts on the same day, and then having that happen again?

Suel

Lucky sob

DNA3000

Colinwhitworth69 wrote: »

CoatHang3r wrote: »

The odds are about 1:~100 or about the same as matching one number and the powerball in the powerball lottery (which pays 4$).

Not sure I follow. There is a one percent chance of me pulling the same champ on two different accounts on the same day, and then having that happen again?

No. The odds of it happening the first time were one in a hundred, which are not "astronomical" odds as you described it. The odds of it happening twice in a row are, assuming nothing else happened, about one in ten thousand which is still not astronomically high.

When I say "assuming nothing else happened" this is because of a problem in statistics where "exceptional" events are filtered out of unexceptional events. If you opened two crystals, one in each account and they were identical, and then you literally did nothing else, and then days later you did that again and they were once again identical, the odds are one in ten thousand. But if you opened any other crystals, the calculated odds become much shakier. You are reporting the weird events but not the normal ones, and the odds of this happening twice out of many other pulls is much more likely than happening as the two only events period. For example, if you did this four times and you're reporting the two times when this actually happened, the odds of this happening twice out of four openings is actually closer to one in 1700. Still unlikely, but even less astronomically unlikely.

There's another issue that is related to a paradox in statistics called the lottery paradox. Basically, the odds of winning the lottery are very low, but someone always does. In other words, from your perspective the odds of pulling twins once is low, and the odds of doing it twice are even lower. But from everyone else's perspective, the odds of someone pulling twins twice and then reporting it on the forums is actually quite high, because there are thousands of people opening crystals constantly. You're amazed you won the lottery, but you're asking everyone else to be amazed that someone won the lottery. This is actually a complicated paradox to do mental gymnastics around.

unknown

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godsquad891

Don't question the magic of RNG! I am very close to my first six star and I really hope for crumpets its a good one. My last two pulls Loki and Symb black spider. These champs are not bad but when it falls between domino and hyperion

I just need one dupe and with the next uncollected event I'm pulling that six star finally. But early pulls like hulk and nightcrawler there are worse problems to have I have bp original yellowjacket venom and moon night on my alt account so ..... quit your moaning hahaha

Anurag1606

Colinwhitworth69 wrote: »

I'm a relatively new player, started in March, with two accounts. I have, as of today, four 5-stars on one account and five 5-stars on the other.

Here's the weird thing, and I swear this is the truth:

After the Gwenpool contest, I opened a five star on each account on the same day, really within the same few minutes of each other. Both pulls were a Hulk Ragnarok. I don't know how many champs are in the basic crystal, but it looks like dozens. Anyway, I chalked that up to a small but real probability of that happening.

Today I opened a 5-star on each account, and -- I tell no lie -- I pulled Nightcrawler on both.

Now I'm not complaining. I dig Gulk and Nightcrawler. Great champs. But you gotta admit that this is pretty weird. The chances of this happening once to me seems astronomical, but twice? Out of only a handful of 5-star pulls I've done?

Truly bizarre.

It happened to me as well. I think it's device related? I use 2 accounts on same device. Log out and then login. I got mordo 5 star from gp event on both accounts. On my smaller account I opened 5 star Ronan and duped him 2 days back. I open a 5 star on my main today and guess what, 5 star Ronan 1st time. This can't be RNG. This has to be device specific thing I feel. Similarly a lot of times similar pulls have been encountered.

Colinwhitworth69

DNA3000 wrote: »

Colinwhitworth69 wrote: »

CoatHang3r wrote: »

The odds are about 1:~100 or about the same as matching one number and the powerball in the powerball lottery (which pays 4$).

Not sure I follow. There is a one percent chance of me pulling the same champ on two different accounts on the same day, and then having that happen again?

No. The odds of it happening the first time were one in a hundred, which are not "astronomical" odds as you described it. The odds of it happening twice in a row are, assuming nothing else happened, about one in ten thousand which is still not astronomically high.

When I say "assuming nothing else happened" this is because of a problem in statistics where "exceptional" events are filtered out of unexceptional events. If you opened two crystals, one in each account and they were identical, and then you literally did nothing else, and then days later you did that again and they were once again identical, the odds are one in ten thousand. But if you opened any other crystals, the calculated odds become much shakier. You are reporting the weird events but not the normal ones, and the odds of this happening twice out of many other pulls is much more likely than happening as the two only events period. For example, if you did this four times and you're reporting the two times when this actually happened, the odds of this happening twice out of four openings is actually closer to one in 1700. Still unlikely, but even less astronomically unlikely.

There's another issue that is related to a paradox in statistics called the lottery paradox. Basically, the odds of winning the lottery are very low, but someone always does. In other words, from your perspective the odds of pulling twins once is low, and the odds of doing it twice are even lower. But from everyone else's perspective, the odds of someone pulling twins twice and then reporting it on the forums is actually quite high, because there are thousands of people opening crystals constantly. You're amazed you won the lottery, but you're asking everyone else to be amazed that someone won the lottery. This is actually a complicated paradox to do mental gymnastics around.

Cool, deep stats info. Thank you.

unknown

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Greywarden

Do you know how long it used to take to get a single 5* lol

Just be happy they're easier to get and you didn't have to wait months to get one.

Colinwhitworth69

Greywarden wrote: »

Do you know how long it used to take to get a single 5* lol

Just be happy they're easier to get and you didn't have to wait months to get one.

Like I said, not complaining. Just thought it was pretty weird in terms of probability.

azhie06

i also have 2 account they also have same 5*

Badrose

Colinwhitworth69 wrote: »

I'm a relatively new player, started in March, with two accounts. I have, as of today, four 5-stars on one account and five 5-stars on the other.

Here's the weird thing, and I swear this is the truth:

After the Gwenpool contest, I opened a five star on each account on the same day, really within the same few minutes of each other. Both pulls were a Hulk Ragnarok. I don't know how many champs are in the basic crystal, but it looks like dozens. Anyway, I chalked that up to a small but real probability of that happening.

Today I opened a 5-star on each account, and -- I tell no lie -- I pulled Nightcrawler on both.

Now I'm not complaining. I dig Gulk and Nightcrawler. Great champs. But you gotta admit that this is pretty weird. The chances of this happening once to me seems astronomical, but twice? Out of only a handful of 5-star pulls I've done?

Truly bizarre.

You are talking to someone who opened 3 juggernauts in a row while trying to get Blade from the FEATURED crystal... I think there are more chances for an asteroid to hit our planet and specifically hitting my house, but this is how Kabam's RNG works.

TheRealApoc

I pulled two Thor Ragnarock on the same account hours apart. Both 5*
What is more odd is there have been times our alliance has all pulled the same champion i.e. Iron Patriot or Spider Gwens within mins of each other.

10or_Strong

One thing I'll be interested in seeing related to the proposed theory that it is device related, is that in the Beta testing for Venom and Carnage I managed to get my next two 5* and my 6* crystal earlier than in my main account due to the fact that, for the Beta, I sold most of my 4* champs to try and get chances to dupe my Venom or Carnage 5*s. In the Beta, the two 5* crystals were back to back Morningstar (which I WISH I could have kept after the Beta!). The 6* was Juggs. I'm hoping for NOT getting Juggs on my main account...LoL I will be able to open 1 5* and my next 6* on my actual account later today, so I"m hoping that the 5* gives me similar luck, but with a better outcome on the 6* front.

And yes, I do realize it's really just all RNG. Just thought that the situation between what we do in Beta and the main account fit nicely into the theory that such seeming coincidences would be device-related.

unknown

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Josegee2321

My situation is different but out of 37 5 star champs I pulled only one science champ she hulk.. I cant complain because iv'e pulled blade 3 times.

DNA3000

10or_Strong wrote: »

One thing I'll be interested in seeing related to the proposed theory that it is device related, is that in the Beta testing for Venom and Carnage I managed to get my next two 5* and my 6* crystal earlier than in my main account due to the fact that, for the Beta, I sold most of my 4* champs to try and get chances to dupe my Venom or Carnage 5*s. In the Beta, the two 5* crystals were back to back Morningstar (which I WISH I could have kept after the Beta!). The 6* was Juggs. I'm hoping for NOT getting Juggs on my main account...LoL I will be able to open 1 5* and my next 6* on my actual account later today, so I"m hoping that the 5* gives me similar luck, but with a better outcome on the 6* front.

And yes, I do realize it's really just all RNG. Just thought that the situation between what we do in Beta and the main account fit nicely into the theory that such seeming coincidences would be device-related.

It seems unlikely that your device could influence the crystal openings, as the crystal openings are actually done on the game servers and not on the device. It isn't literally impossible, but it doesn't seem at all likely to me.

gage201205

My first 3 5 stars ever we're rogue 3 times in a row I was ticked

DNA3000

gage201205 wrote: »

My first 3 5 stars ever we're rogue 3 times in a row I was ticked

I'd love a 5* awakened Rogue myself. My 5/50 was the primary workhorse for the immunity path on Map 5 in the previous season of AQ, and on flare nodes in Act 5.