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Repeatedly pulling the same class from 5* Awakening Gems

24

Comments

  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    Wedgemonster said:

    Lormif said:

    They have said it is completely random, and no it does not happen "far to many times to be anecdotal", because it could happen a thousand times and as long as there are enough people to counterbalance that account it is still anecdotal, or even what is known as an outlier.

    4 times in a row is (1/6)^4, which is only 1 in 1296, considering the thousands of open AGs that is not that odd.

    Seems like I taught you how to calculate probability in this comment you chose not to acknowledge. So I guess that’s good. Care to do so?

    You didn’t teach me anything, I already know statistics, I have 2 mathematics degrees and tutored statistics for 4 years. Being “virtually zero” is not the same thing as being actually zero, me pulling that would have happened to someone, I am fine with it being me because it saves one more of these conspiracy posts.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    Wedgemonster said:

    Lormif said:

    Wedgemonster said:

    Lormif said:

    They have said it is completely random, and no it does not happen "far to many times to be anecdotal", because it could happen a thousand times and as long as there are enough people to counterbalance that account it is still anecdotal, or even what is known as an outlier.

    4 times in a row is (1/6)^4, which is only 1 in 1296, considering the thousands of open AGs that is not that odd.

    Seems like I taught you how to calculate probability in this comment you chose not to acknowledge. So I guess that’s good. Care to do so?

    You didn’t teach me anything, I already know statistics, I have 2 mathematics degrees and tutored statistics for 4 years. Being “virtually zero” is not the same thing as being actually zero, me pulling that would have happened to someone, I am fine with it being me because it saves one more of these conspiracy posts.
    You should go buy some Powerball tickets then, because you literally have far better odds of winning that. Or being hit by a meteor. Or pretty much any other infinitesimally small probability event you can think of.
    Yea, that does not translate to that, but I wish lol
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    edited October 2019


    I sold all my 2,3,4 champs because I had convinced myself I was done with this game... The main 2 champs I had wanted for 12 months was Omega and Void. Yeah had all the other champs that I had sought after. The 5* shards I got from selling champs allowed me to open 6 5* crystals. The 1st one that has already converted was Blade. Call it “RNG” all you want. In my eyes Kabam uses an algorithm to give you what they want you to have based on your in game actions. I’ll never believe that Kabam uses true RNG ever again. I’m not here to convince anyone to believe me. I’m here to share what I believe. Before you respond to debate with me just please spend your time doing something more productive because I will never be convinced otherwise.
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    I would have bought the AG deal for 39.99 maybe 49.99 but I’m not paying 69.99 to most likely get a gem I already have instead of one that I don’t
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,983 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:



    I sold all my 2,3,4 champs because I had convinced myself I was done with this game... The main 2 champs I had wanted for 12 months was Omega and Void. Yeah had all the other champs that I had sought after. The 5* shards I got from selling champs allowed me to open 6 5* crystals. The 1st one that has already converted was Blade. Call it “RNG” all you want. In my eyes Kabam uses an algorithm to give you what they want you to have based on your in game actions. I’ll never believe that Kabam uses true RNG ever again. I’m not here to convince anyone to believe me. I’m here to share what I believe. Before you respond to debate with me just please spend your time doing something more productive because I will never be convinced otherwise.

    @MΛSSΛCRE so.... Tell me what in game actions would lead the game to know you wanted Omega Red and Void? How did the game know you were going to quit and the only thing to convince you to stay would be to give you those champs? If it's not true RNG, you should be able to explain it.
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    I’m not here to convince @Demonzfyre if you really want to know you can borrow my tin foil hat and all will be revealed to you. But as far as Kabam knowing I was close to quitting I’d say selling all my champs that help me gain shards gold and iso would be a clear sign. Holding mutant and science gems while using other classes is also a good indicator. Keeping plenty of mutant and science t4cc may give them a hint also. They know what champs in each class are beyond god tier, they know the champs that are the most sought after.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,983 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    I’m not here to convince @Demonzfyre if you really want to know you can borrow my tin foil hat and all will be revealed to you. But as far as Kabam knowing I was close to quitting I’d say selling all my champs that help me gain shards gold and iso would be a clear sign. Holding mutant and science gems while using other classes is also a good indicator. Keeping plenty of mutant and science t4cc may give them a hint also. They know what champs in each class are beyond god tier, they know the champs that are the most sought after.

    I see, so anyone that sells their sellable champs, and has a mutant and science AG and Sig stones means they want OR and Void? Couldnt be Havok or Wasp? Namor or Gulk? Mr Sinister or Spider Gwen?

    What you said is equivalent to saying Aliens helped me when the lottery. I know nothing will convince you because that level of crazy can't be topped. I'm blown away by that explanation and I believe Tupac is alive.
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    People want to laugh at me bc I make an assumption based on experience. I laugh when people believe Kabam uses pure “RNG” just because the said they do... Which one sounds crazier at this point?
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    People want to laugh at me bc I make an assumption based on experience. I laugh when people believe Kabam uses pure “RNG” just because the said they do... Which one sounds crazier at this point?

    No one things they use "pure" RNG, they use as pure as possible, in that a computer based RNG generator is not "pure" but it is better than you claim..

    Also we dont laugh because you make assumption based on experience, but because your experience is supremely limited, and you try and state facts based on extremely limited anecdotal evidence, which is statistically irrelevant. Now if you had pulled a few thousand, or had statistics of a random pull of atleast 1000 openings then we can talk.
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    @Demonzfyre the sad part is I said that I believe something and I specifically said you shouldn’t waste your time trying to convince me otherwise yet you are wasting your time debating with me.... Call me whatever you want accuse my thought process of being silly. Your even sillier for trying to convince me that Kabam operates under 100% moral and fair principles for each and every player and their account.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,983 ★★★★★
    edited October 2019
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    People want to laugh at me bc I make an assumption based on experience. I laugh when people believe Kabam uses pure “RNG” just because the said they do... Which one sounds crazier at this point?

    There isn't such thing as pure rng in a computer game. Its programmed, but there isn't anything like what you said.

    You didnt make an assumption, you make an outrageous statement claiming that they somehow know what you want based on the games ability to use deductive reasoning. Thats not assuming, that takes thought and processing to come up with that.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    @Demonzfyre the sad part is I said that I believe something and I specifically said you shouldn’t waste your time trying to convince me otherwise yet you are wasting your time debating with me.... Call me whatever you want accuse my thought process of being silly. Your even sillier for trying to convince me that Kabam operates under 100% moral and fair principles for each and every player and their account.

    No one here has remotely tried to make that argument, please leave the strawmen at home.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,983 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    @Demonzfyre the sad part is I said that I believe something and I specifically said you shouldn’t waste your time trying to convince me otherwise yet you are wasting your time debating with me.... Call me whatever you want accuse my thought process of being silly. Your even sillier for trying to convince me that Kabam operates under 100% moral and fair principles for each and every player and their account.

    I'm not trying to convince you. Im poking holes in your theory because it's completely untrue. I know I won't convince you but others don't need this kind of ridiculousness in their lives.
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    Lormif said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    People want to laugh at me bc I make an assumption based on experience. I laugh when people believe Kabam uses pure “RNG” just because the said they do... Which one sounds crazier at this point?

    No one things they use "pure" RNG, they use as pure as possible, in that a computer based RNG generator is not "pure" but it is better than you claim..

    Also we dont laugh because you make assumption based on experience, but because your experience is supremely limited, and you try and state facts based on extremely limited anecdotal evidence, which is statistically irrelevant. Now if you had pulled a few thousand, or had statistics of a random pull of atleast 1000 openings then we can talk.
    I said I believe something what part of that implies it’s a fact? I believe in God. I believe people that don’t burn in hell. Belief/Faith is far from fact. I clearly said I’m not trying to convince anyone or be convinced. I said that in my first post. Yet here y’all go trying to use facts of what the definition of RNG is to make me believe that’s what Kabam is doing. Yet you can’t prove that Kabam actually uses fair RNG and I can’t prove they don’t. The difference is I’m not the one trying to convince something I can’t prove to be fact.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 20,983 ★★★★★
    @MΛSSΛCRE so do Aliens exist as well? Is cliamte change a hoax? Tell me more.
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    Demonzfyre said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    @Demonzfyre the sad part is I said that I believe something and I specifically said you shouldn’t waste your time trying to convince me otherwise yet you are wasting your time debating with me.... Call me whatever you want accuse my thought process of being silly. Your even sillier for trying to convince me that Kabam operates under 100% moral and fair principles for each and every player and their account.

    I'm not trying to convince you. Im poking holes in your theory because it's completely untrue. I know I won't convince you but others don't need this kind of ridiculousness in their lives.
    Buddy I didn’t realize you were the ridiculousness police. I also didn’t realize forums wasn’t the place to share the experiences directly related to the original post. Forgive me and thank you for your services. I hope your compensated well for your hard work.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    Lormif said:

    MΛSSΛCRE said:

    People want to laugh at me bc I make an assumption based on experience. I laugh when people believe Kabam uses pure “RNG” just because the said they do... Which one sounds crazier at this point?

    No one things they use "pure" RNG, they use as pure as possible, in that a computer based RNG generator is not "pure" but it is better than you claim..

    Also we dont laugh because you make assumption based on experience, but because your experience is supremely limited, and you try and state facts based on extremely limited anecdotal evidence, which is statistically irrelevant. Now if you had pulled a few thousand, or had statistics of a random pull of atleast 1000 openings then we can talk.
    I said I believe something what part of that implies it’s a fact? I believe in God. I believe people that don’t burn in hell. Belief/Faith is far from fact. I clearly said I’m not trying to convince anyone or be convinced. I said that in my first post. Yet here y’all go trying to use facts of what the definition of RNG is to make me believe that’s what Kabam is doing. Yet you can’t prove that Kabam actually uses fair RNG and I can’t prove they don’t. The difference is I’m not the one trying to convince something I can’t prove to be fact.
    Well then you are just irrational, and there is no point even trying to have a discussion with someone who tells you up front they are irrational.
  • MΛSSΛCREMΛSSΛCRE Posts: 101 ★
    Demonzfyre said:

    @MΛSSΛCRE so do Aliens exist as well? Is cliamte change a hoax? Tell me more.

    I’m glad I interest you to such an intrinsic degree but to be honest I’ve lost interest in discussing beliefs with you.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    UmbertoDelRio said:

    Lormif said:

    UmbertoDelRio said:

    Wedgemonster said:

    Lormif said:

    They have said it is completely random, and no it does not happen "far to many times to be anecdotal", because it could happen a thousand times and as long as there are enough people to counterbalance that account it is still anecdotal, or even what is known as an outlier.

    4 times in a row is (1/6)^4, which is only 1 in 1296, considering the thousands of open AGs that is not that odd.

    Seems like I taught you how to calculate probability in this comment you chose not to acknowledge. So I guess that’s good. Care to do so?

    *clears throat*

    The drop chances in this game still aren't cumulative. It is absolutely irrelevant how minor the odds for "pulling storm 5 times in a row" are, because that's not what the game is calculating.

    You have 5 crystals, each being their own distinct and seperate pull/event and each with their own set odds.

    Pulling storm in the first crystal does not influence the odds of pulling her in the second, third, fourth or fifth crystal.
    They are not cumulative.
    You can calculate the probability of pulling 2 champs from independant crystals, even though the odds themselves are not related. The chances of pulling from a crystal may not be related to one another, but since they should still follow a standard distribution it would be 1/N where in is the number of champs in the pull raised to the number of pulls.

    you can use dice to make it simple. The chance of rolling a die and getting a 6 is 1/6, but the chance of rolling 2 dice and getting 2 6s is 1/36, (1/6)^2.. This can be proved with a table of possible outcomes:

    (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
    (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
    (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
    (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
    (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
    (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

    I am not going to create a table for possible outcomes for pulling 5 storms in a row because that would be absurd.

    Now you can compare this to something like pulling the same suit from a deck 2x in a row, where the odds are dependent. The first is 1/4, the second is 12/51, so 1/4 * 12/51 or about 1/17 (~5.9%).

    So to be clear, just because the individual odds are independant in no way means that you are unable to calculate accumulative odds.
    Thank you very much for the detailed explanation. All I'm doing however is questioning the relevance of bringing up the accumulative odds in this context lol.
    To be honest he was being a bit cocky from a past post is all, you could have ignored our aside.
This discussion has been closed.