Who is the luckiest summoner on the forums? Come and analyse your roster too!

My friends always talk about how I'm Seatin levels of lucky. Yes, I'm that lucky guy in your alliance/friend group you get annoyed at. But I got curious; am I really that lucky? Or maybe it's just how they perceive it? Maybe they are on the lower end of the average and I'm average? So I wanted to analyse my 5 star roster.

Anyway for this little experiment I used Seatin's tier list. Yes i know tier lists aren't the end-all know-all but I have few complaints about his and think it's generally well accepted by the community. The method: count all your 5 stars, check how many are beyond god/god/high demi god tier and calculate the ratio. I don't know if I should put low demi god tier in too because while there are some awesome champs in there, I feel most of them make you say 'meh' when you pull them. Let me know what you think and If I should add low demi god too. Now that that's over we can finally go to the stats.

5 stars: 62
Beyond god: 9
God tier: 12
high demi god tier: 9

Ratios:
Beyond god: 14.51%
God tier: 19.35%
High demi god: 14.51%
Which means that 14.51 + 14.51 + 19.35= 48.37% of my 5 star roster are champs I'm really happy with

I'm surprised! The number is higher than I expected especially since there are some good champs in low demi god tier too. Now you can make an argument for champs you have unduped that really need their dupe (I have an unduped omega red that adds to my beyond got tier ratio) but I decided not to exclude them. Let me know your ratios in the comments! Who is the luckiest player on the forums? Let the battle begin!

Exams are getting the better of me it's obvious isn't it?

Comments

Owl_0wl

5*s 47
beyond 6
god 3
high demi god 6

32% of my champs, all but two of these are duped at least but yeah, not as lucky as you

Then again i have 3 6*s
1 beyond god cap iw
1 high demi god wasp

and then closely beyond is hawkeye who i believe should be classed as high demi god so ive been lucky with these boyos

IvarTheBoneless

Yeah hawkeye immediately came to my mind too! I have him r4 duped so I've been lucky there too.

But you certainly have been blessed with 6 stars! I have 6 so far and 1 beyond god tier but it's aegon, could be ages before I dupe him. The other 5 are straight up trash.

Unless

5* - 35
Beyond god - 7
God-9
High demigod- 2

Percentage-51.41%

IcsGrec

5* - 61
Beyond God - 4
God - 6
High Demi - 11

34,42%

6* - 5
Bedyond God - 1
High Demi - 3
Potato - 1 (Iron Fist

)

80%. I`m afraid to open my next

Owl_0wl

@IcsGrec who is your beyond god 6*

Unless

In terms of 6*
Karnak and hulkbuster so 0%☹️

solopolo

I'm counting dupes as well, since they're also separate pulls. Goldpools and Unstoppable Colossus are excluded because neither was obtained in a 5* crystal. If a champ doesn't have a number before their name, they're unduped.

(Yeah I tiered them myself. Might not be fully accurate, but it's close enough.)

Beyond god tier: 3
Archangel
Hype
Stark spidey

God tier: 6
2x voodoo
Sunspot
Stealth spidey
Starlord
Cull

Demi-god: 11
Morningstar
2x carnage
Rogue
Storm
Cap Marvel (classic)
Hawkeye
Hela
Spiderman (classic)
Drax
Guillotine

Somewhat useful: 4
King groot
Mephisto
Ronan
Juggernaut

Meme tier: 8
Beast
2x kingpin
Agent venom
Magneto
Cyclops (blue team)
Miles
Cap America

Other 5*s:
2x goldpool
Unstoppable Colossus

1 6* electro

Total 5* pulls: 33
Beyond god tier: 3 | 9.09%
God tier: 6 | 18.18%
Demi-god tier: 11 | 33.33%
Somewhat useful tier: 4 | 12.12
Meme tier: 8 | 24.24%

About a 28% chance of pulling a god-tier or better, vs a 24% chance of pulling arena fodder. Better odds than I thought.

IcsGrec

@IcsGrec who is your beyond god 6*

Ghost

Soar2878

5 stars- 24
Beyond God Tier- 3
God tier- 6
High Demi-God- 2
11/24= 45.8%

If you count dupes, it is
Total pulls- 14/28= 50%

For some reason I have pulled Omega Red 4 times.

However, my luck balances out when my one 6-star is DPX.

GhostOfYost

I made a spreadsheet that will calculate your 5* luck for up to 100 pulls:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtQLkAOoHXTI97GZIS7SYrTztzyR3XNYmnoPly6V2pU

I haven’t kept it updated for new champs, so my apologies to those of you who have Warlock and so forth. Rest assured, your luck is good.

This is based around Seatin’s tier list, which isn’t universally agreed upon, but is pretty widely accepted as not wildly inaccurate either. Each tier is scored on a scale of 1-7. You pick your champs from the drop down, their tier and score are added automatically, and you get an average score for your roster.

If you pulled a champion twice, enter them twice.

If you disagree with how Seatin has rated a champion, your champion is new and not on my list, or you want to adjust for something like an unduped Star Lord, you can just pick a different champ that is at the tier you think your champ should be. The calculation is based on the score, not the champ name.

To make the comparison, I ran 1,000,000 simulated rosters each pulling up to 100 champions (this is where Excel started struggling with the volume of data). So there’s a comparison of 1,000,000 rosters with 1 pull, 1,000,000 rosters with 2 pulls, and so on. Your roster will then be compared to the distribution of these sample rosters. The thing you really care about is your percentile luck. If you’re at the 50th percentile, your roster is exactly average. Above 50% and your luck is good. Below 50% and your luck is bad.

There are some caveats:

I couldn’t think of a good way to deal with champions that need their dupe or synergies to be good, like SL. Know that this is approximating based on wherever the champ falls on Seatin’s list.

This also assumes that every champion has an equal chance of appearing in every basic crystal. If there’s some probability manipulation where Corvus will only drop half as frequently as Iron Patriot, then the “average” roster is an over estimate of actual average goodness.

This doesn’t take into account the growth of the pool over time. Most new camps are good (looking at you, Diablo), so the quality of the basic pool keeps improving. If you’ve been pulling champs for a long time, your earlier pulls were coming from a worse pool than now, so your average is likely lower because your chances at worse champs was higher. This is comparing to an average roster pulled completely in September or whenever it was I made the sheet.

The scoring is done linearly by tier, but that may not represent their true relative value. Ghost may be more than 7 times more valuable than OG Iron Man, for example. But I didn’t think I was capable of making that judgement. It shouldn’t make a huge difference comparing to the “average” roster, though.

Etjama

If we're just basing this off of Seatin's tier list, then...

5 stars: 12
Beyond God: 1
God: 1
High Demi-God: 0

Ratios
Beyond God: 8.33%
God: 8.33%

So I'm only happy with 16.66% of my 5 stars.

Etjama

I made a spreadsheet that will calculate your 5* luck for up to 100 pulls:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtQLkAOoHXTI97GZIS7SYrTztzyR3XNYmnoPly6V2pU

I haven’t kept it updated for new champs, so my apologies to those of you who have Warlock and so forth. Rest assured, your luck is good.

This is based around Seatin’s tier list, which isn’t universally agreed upon, but is pretty widely accepted as not wildly inaccurate either. Each tier is scored on a scale of 1-7. You pick your champs from the drop down, their tier and score are added automatically, and you get an average score for your roster.

If you pulled a champion twice, enter them twice.

If you disagree with how Seatin has rated a champion, your champion is new and not on my list, or you want to adjust for something like an unduped Star Lord, you can just pick a different champ that is at the tier you think your champ should be. The calculation is based on the score, not the champ name.

To make the comparison, I ran 1,000,000 simulated rosters each pulling up to 100 champions (this is where Excel started struggling with the volume of data). So there’s a comparison of 1,000,000 rosters with 1 pull, 1,000,000 rosters with 2 pulls, and so on. Your roster will then be compared to the distribution of these sample rosters. The thing you really care about is your percentile luck. If you’re at the 50th percentile, your roster is exactly average. Above 50% and your luck is good. Below 50% and your luck is bad.

There are some caveats:

I couldn’t think of a good way to deal with champions that need their dupe or synergies to be good, like SL. Know that this is approximating based on wherever the champ falls on Seatin’s list.

This also assumes that every champion has an equal chance of appearing in every basic crystal. If there’s some probability manipulation where Corvus will only drop half as frequently as Iron Patriot, then the “average” roster is an over estimate of actual average goodness.

This doesn’t take into account the growth of the pool over time. Most new camps are good (looking at you, Diablo), so the quality of the basic pool keeps improving. If you’ve been pulling champs for a long time, your earlier pulls were coming from a worse pool than now, so your average is likely lower because your chances at worse champs was higher. This is comparing to an average roster pulled completely in September or whenever it was I made the sheet.

The scoring is done linearly by tier, but that may not represent their true relative value. Ghost may be more than 7 times more valuable than OG Iron Man, for example. But I didn’t think I was capable of making that judgement. It shouldn’t make a huge difference comparing to the “average” roster, though.

I just tried out that doc you made and it's not entirely accurate. My suggestion would be (if you're already basing this all on Seatin's tier list) to take a look at his unduped champion tier list and add the options for awakened and unawakened champions. For instance, one of my 5 stars is Ronan. When he's awakened, he has some worth, but if he's unawakened like mine, he's practically worthless. There's also the matter of pulling an awakening or not, but with this adjustment, you could just put both pulls of awakened and unawakened champions on there which would average out on your "luck calculation". Just a thought. I actually liked he idea of this though.

MiStaLova

5 stars are Rank 5,4,3 only in this screens

LexSavi

I might be a candidate for 6* pulls:

Total 6*: 27

Top Tier: CAIW (duped), Ghost, Nick Fury, Domino, Omega Red, Void

Very Good Tier: Stealth Spidey, Ronin, Ghulk, Doc Oc, Gamora, Killmonger

Synergy Team (for Ghost): Wasp, Hood, Antman

Top Tier pull rate: 6/27 = 22.22%

Lucasjones_98

I don't have lots of 5 stars but the ones I have I'm very happy with apart from Cyclops. But the last 6 in order from new to older were nick fury, corvus, sunspot, cull, havok, starky

unknown

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