Featured Drop Rates

CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
in General Discussion
Kabam should release the featured crystal drop rates. Not the 100% chance of a 5-star that it currently says. I want to know how that 100% is divided amongst the 24 champs in that crystal. I think we can all agree that it’s not an even split.
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Comments

  • NOOOOOOOOPEEEEENOOOOOOOOPEEEEE Member Posts: 2,803 ★★★★★
    But it is though
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    NOOOOOOOOPEEEEE said:

    But it is though

    Not a chance.
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    NOOOOOOOOPEEEEE said:

    But it is though

    All the math says otherwise
  • lowlevelplayerlowlevelplayer Member Posts: 4,292 ★★★★★
    CoachLed said:

    NOOOOOOOOPEEEEE said:

    But it is though

    All the math says otherwise
    Do i hear math? What math? Show me
  • H3t3rH3t3r Member, Guardian Posts: 2,882 Guardian
    lowlevelplayer said:

    CoachLed said:

    NOOOOOOOOPEEEEE said:

    But it is though

    All the math says otherwise
    Do i hear math? What math? Show me
    We need DNA 3000 to confirm this
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 12,354 Guardian
    Is this a continuation of your NUMBERS DON'T LIE conspiracy post ??
    So you opened 3 crystals that were all the same.

    So you are just the 1 “unlucky” out of an average group of 576 people that would pull the same champ in pulls 2 and 3 as you did in pull 1.

    And if you think they are stacked towards the “lesser” champs, I can tell you that this series of 5* Feature Pool I have pulled Guilly2099 3 times (out of maybe 7 ?? Featured 5* this round). So there are people on the opposite end of the bell curve (of desired champs) too.

    If there is actually a difference in Odds between different champs, they would indicate that in the Drop Rates, like they do the the Feature that you Purchase with Units (or Money).
    Otherwise, they ALL have the same odds, whether a Feature or Basic Hero Crystal.
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    22piløts said:

    you have exactly 4.16666666666.......% of getting the champion you want, just did the math.

    You don’t really believe that
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    SummonerNR said:

    Is this a continuation of your NUMBERS DON'T LIE conspiracy post ??
    So you opened 3 crystals that were all the same.

    So you are just the 1 “unlucky” out of an average group of 576 people that would pull the same champ in pulls 2 and 3 as you did in pull 1.

    And if you think they are stacked towards the “lesser” champs, I can tell you that this series of 5* Feature Pool I have pulled Guilly2099 3 times (out of maybe 7 ?? Featured 5* this round). So there are people on the opposite end of the bell curve (of desired champs) too.

    If there is actually a difference in Odds between different champs, they would indicate that in the Drop Rates, like they do the the Feature that you Purchase with Units (or Money).
    Otherwise, they ALL have the same odds, whether a Feature or Basic Hero Crystal.

    Nope. New case here. Just opened 6 new features crystals and didn’t pull a single featured champ. At some point we can’t just chalk it up as “bad luck”.
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    edited March 2020
    Ya_Boi_28 said:

    CoachLed said:

    22piløts said:

    you have exactly 4.16666666666.......% of getting the champion you want, just did the math.

    You don’t really believe that
    If you don't like it then, don't do featureds. 15k for trash is not a good feeling
    I actually don’t mind if the drop rates of the actual featured champs is lower. That makes sense to me. I just think they should be disclosed.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 21,833 ★★★★★
    CoachLed said:

    SummonerNR said:

    Is this a continuation of your NUMBERS DON'T LIE conspiracy post ??
    So you opened 3 crystals that were all the same.

    So you are just the 1 “unlucky” out of an average group of 576 people that would pull the same champ in pulls 2 and 3 as you did in pull 1.

    And if you think they are stacked towards the “lesser” champs, I can tell you that this series of 5* Feature Pool I have pulled Guilly2099 3 times (out of maybe 7 ?? Featured 5* this round). So there are people on the opposite end of the bell curve (of desired champs) too.

    If there is actually a difference in Odds between different champs, they would indicate that in the Drop Rates, like they do the the Feature that you Purchase with Units (or Money).
    Otherwise, they ALL have the same odds, whether a Feature or Basic Hero Crystal.

    Nope. New case here. Just opened 6 new features crystals and didn’t pull a single featured champ. At some point we can’t just chalk it up as “bad luck”.
    24 champs in the featured. 6 featured champs= less of a chance to get what you want. Drop rates are per crystal, not bundled together.

    Now, go figure out the plan for the new AQ. Or are we just going in blind?
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 12,354 Guardian
    I just gave you a counter case of GOOD pulls where they were actually one of the 6 New Feature (3x Guilly2099 and also 1x of Doom), out of I think 7 (maybe 8 ?) 5* Feature Crystals.
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    Demonzfyre said:

    CoachLed said:

    SummonerNR said:

    Is this a continuation of your NUMBERS DON'T LIE conspiracy post ??
    So you opened 3 crystals that were all the same.

    So you are just the 1 “unlucky” out of an average group of 576 people that would pull the same champ in pulls 2 and 3 as you did in pull 1.

    And if you think they are stacked towards the “lesser” champs, I can tell you that this series of 5* Feature Pool I have pulled Guilly2099 3 times (out of maybe 7 ?? Featured 5* this round). So there are people on the opposite end of the bell curve (of desired champs) too.

    If there is actually a difference in Odds between different champs, they would indicate that in the Drop Rates, like they do the the Feature that you Purchase with Units (or Money).
    Otherwise, they ALL have the same odds, whether a Feature or Basic Hero Crystal.

    Nope. New case here. Just opened 6 new features crystals and didn’t pull a single featured champ. At some point we can’t just chalk it up as “bad luck”.
    24 champs in the featured. 6 featured champs= less of a chance to get what you want. Drop rates are per crystal, not bundled together.

    Now, go figure out the plan for the new AQ. Or are we just going in blind?
    Blind sounds good
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    22piløts said:

    CoachLed said:

    22piløts said:

    you have exactly 4.16666666666.......% of getting the champion you want, just did the math.

    You don’t really believe that
    bruh its simple math provided by google ;D
    I know how to divide, dude. I’m not an idiot. My argument is that the champs in that crystal don’t actually have a 1/24 chance.
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    SummonerNR said:

    I just gave you a counter case of GOOD pulls where they were actually one of the 6 New Feature (3x Guilly2099 and also 1x of Doom), out of I think 7 (maybe 8 ?) 5* Feature Crystals.

    Prove it
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 21,833 ★★★★★
    CoachLed said:

    22piløts said:

    CoachLed said:

    22piløts said:

    you have exactly 4.16666666666.......% of getting the champion you want, just did the math.

    You don’t really believe that
    bruh its simple math provided by google ;D
    I know how to divide, dude. I’m not an idiot. My argument is that the champs in that crystal don’t actually have a 1/24 chance.
    CoachLed said:

    SummonerNR said:

    I just gave you a counter case of GOOD pulls where they were actually one of the 6 New Feature (3x Guilly2099 and also 1x of Doom), out of I think 7 (maybe 8 ?) 5* Feature Crystals.

    Prove it
    Wouldn't you have to prove your theory as well? You haven't done that......🤷
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    I have screenshots of my pulls.
  • Aomine_Daiki10Aomine_Daiki10 Member Posts: 1,643 ★★★★★
    Stick with basics
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 21,833 ★★★★★
    CoachLed said:

    I have screenshots of my pulls.

    But that's just your pulls which is .0000000000000001% or less of every pull out there.
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 12,354 Guardian
    Guilly2099 Sig 40 (no I did not use Awake Gem or extra SigStones), and Doom.
    And neither were from Units/Money Purchase of champ-specific Feature, nor sky-high Arena.

    (of course no way to prove how many total 5* Feature I tried, was either 7 or 8, guess conspiracy would say I must have opened hundreds to get those 4 good ones, lol) but admittedly this is best round of Feature I have had.



  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,511 ★★★★★
    6 Featured Crystals doesn't mean you will pull a Featured. 25% chance doesn't mean it's a guaranteed 1 in 4. Each Crystal has a 25% chance of being a new Champ. There's the same Drop Rate for all Champs in those Crystals. 1 in 24 chance at any specific Champion.
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 12,354 Guardian
    edited March 2020
    😀
  • GinjabredMonstaGinjabredMonsta Member, Guardian Posts: 6,482 Guardian
    I saw someone throw down the math guantlet and DNA had not yet posted? I'll just wait here then.
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    SummonerNR said:

    (New Math...)

    25% chance at one of the 6 New champs, multiplied by 6 attempts, equals 150% chance.
    So since 150% is greater than 100%, you are GUARANTEED to get a New Champ 😀😀😀

    Yeah that’s not how the math works on that one. They are independent events. Let’s look at the chances of not pulling a featured which is 75%. To find the probability of not pulling a featured when trying 6 times, you multiple those probabilities (.75x.75x.75x.75x.75x.75=0.1779). That means there was only a 17.79% chance that I didn’t pull at least one featured champ. This type of stuff happens all the time hence why I don’t think the probability is the same for every champ.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,511 ★★★★★
    That formula may be used to calculate probability, but it's literally 25% chance each Crystal. Which means you have a 75% chance of it not being one. Each time. The pulls don't take into account what you pulled last time.
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    That formula may be used to calculate probability, but it's literally 25% chance each Crystal. Which means you have a 75% chance of it not being one. Each time. The pulls don't take into account what you pulled last time.

    Hence why they’re “independent”
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,511 ★★★★★
    CoachLed said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    That formula may be used to calculate probability, but it's literally 25% chance each Crystal. Which means you have a 75% chance of it not being one. Each time. The pulls don't take into account what you pulled last time.

    Hence why they’re “independent”
    How are they independent and cumulatively indicative of a problem?
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    Verzz said:

    CoachLed said:

    SummonerNR said:

    (New Math...)

    25% chance at one of the 6 New champs, multiplied by 6 attempts, equals 150% chance.
    So since 150% is greater than 100%, you are GUARANTEED to get a New Champ 😀😀😀

    Yeah that’s not how the math works on that one. They are independent events. Let’s look at the chances of not pulling a featured which is 75%. To find the probability of not pulling a featured when trying 6 times, you multiple those probabilities (.75x.75x.75x.75x.75x.75=0.1779). That means there was only a 17.79% chance that I didn’t pull at least one featured champ. This type of stuff happens all the time hence why I don’t think the probability is the same for every champ.
    I like how “all the math” now is hitting something that is more probable than calling a 6 sided dice roll once.
    It’s not about the one instance. This whole thread took a turn. I just know that I can’t be alone in thinking that the drop rates are different for different champs.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,511 ★★★★★
    Are you alone? No. You're not the first to claim that. It's just not the case. There isn't a separate algorithm for Champs that people want more than others. The Drop Rates are as indicated.
  • CoachLedCoachLed Member Posts: 355 ★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    Are you alone? No. You're not the first to claim that. It's just not the case. There isn't a separate algorithm for Champs that people want more than others. The Drop Rates are as indicated.

    But you can’t be certain. Just as I can’t be. It’s all conjecture.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,511 ★★★★★
    CoachLed said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Are you alone? No. You're not the first to claim that. It's just not the case. There isn't a separate algorithm for Champs that people want more than others. The Drop Rates are as indicated.

    But you can’t be certain. Just as I can’t be. It’s all conjecture.
    Actually you can be fairly certain, but you would need a great deal more data than one person's pulls. Players have been analyzing pulls of things like the PHC since before the Drop Rates were posted, with decent accuracy.
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