If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
That's correct. The odds of getting an AG if you do not use the Chronometer is 3%, so the odds of not getting it is 97%. But if you buy the Chronometer the odds of getting an AG are 100% in any run you use it in - assuming that's what you bought it for. You don't have to worry about the odds of the portal putting you on the AG path. What you do have to worry about is the AG class is random in every run, so if you want a particular class you have to run Rifts over and over until that class comes up, and then you use the Chronometer to make sure you get that AG.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
Your math is off. Each time you run you have a 3% chance. So the odds of your gem coming up are 1/6 of 3%. If you buy the item to let you pick your path the odds are still 1/6 of 3% because that is the odds for finding it for the whole run. The item gives you 100% of 1/6 of 3% and without it just a 25% chance of 1/6 of 3%. Where are you getting such high numbers at. Your basicly telling people they will get multiple ags or ags almost every run with your numbers. The amount of maps you play don't increase the find odds it just let's you reroll that already small number.
That's wrong. IF you choose to go to the random portal, the odds of being sent to the AG are 3%. But if you use the selector and you choose the AG path - which is presumably the whole point of buying the Chronometer - the odds of going to the AG path are 100%, because you chose it. The odds of the AG being the class you want is 1/6. But the odds of you picking the wrong AG are zero, because you aren't going to deliberately pick the wrong AG, because that would be stupid. In the first twelve runs there's absolutely no reason to do that. You're only going to be forced to pick an AG of a different class other than the one you want if that class doesn't show up in 13 runs and you have no choice (because you're out of runs). The odds of 13 runs in a row not showing you one particular class is (5/6)^13 = 0.09346 which I'm rounding to about 9%. So the odds of your class coming up at least once is the inverse of that, or 91%.
This is very, very, very straight forward statistical calculation. I don't expect the average person to be able to do this, which is why I posted the calculations myself, but anyone with any sort of math background should be able to do the same analysis trivially.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
That's correct. The odds of getting an AG if you do not use the Chronometer is 3%, so the odds of not getting it is 97%. But if you buy the Chronometer the odds of getting an AG are 100% in any run you use it in - assuming that's what you bought it for. You don't have to worry about the odds of the portal putting you on the AG path. What you do have to worry about is the AG class is random in every run, so if you want a particular class you have to run Rifts over and over until that class comes up, and then you use the Chronometer to make sure you get that AG.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
Your math is off. Each time you run you have a 3% chance. So the odds of your gem coming up are 1/6 of 3%. If you buy the item to let you pick your path the odds are still 1/6 of 3% because that is the odds for finding it for the whole run. The item gives you 100% of 1/6 of 3% and without it just a 25% chance of 1/6 of 3%. Where are you getting such high numbers at. Your basicly telling people they will get multiple ags or ags almost every run with your numbers. The amount of maps you play don't increase the find odds it just let's you reroll that already small number.
But the odds of you picking the wrong AG are zero, because you aren't going to deliberately pick the wrong AG, because that would be stupid.
Based on previous quotes the chances of this happening are 100%
While my last reply sits in moderator limbo (I tried to correct a typo), I thought I would calculate some various scenarios. We've been mainly focused on the scenario where a player wants one particular class of AG. If they buy the Chronometer up front they have a 91% chance to see the class they want and use it. If they don't, they have an 89% chance of seeing that class and having the option of buying and using the Chronometer (after Rift #12, when they buy entrance #13 they can't do that anymore, so the person that buys up front gets one more "try"). But what if you are willing to get more than one class. Suppose there are two classes you want out of the six. Does that change anything?
Well, buying up front you have a 1 - (2/3)^13 = 0.99486 ~= 99.5% chance to see one of the two classes you want. If you don't buy up front, you have a 1 - (2/3)^12 ~ 99.2% chance to see what you want. Not a huge difference, and maybe enough to shift the balance towards not buying the Chronometer.
What if you don't care about class at all, and any AG would be great? In that case, buying the Chronometer means you have a 100% chance to get an AG, because of course. But if you don't, the odds you randomly get an AG in the first twelve Rifts is about 1 - (0.97)^12 ~ 31%. If you don't, you could buy a Chronometer and get an AG in Rift #13 guaranteed. Which means there's a 31% chance you won't have to buy the Chronometer and thus get five extra runs. This assumes you want one, but wouldn't spend to get two AGs. If so, skipping the Chronometer up front and holding off until later is a reasonable, and possibly valuable option (again: this assumes you want one, but don't really need two). Alternatively, you could pass on the Chronometer altogether and just see what you get in 18 runs. The odds of getting any AG at all at least once is about 1 - (0.97)^18 ~ 42%. If AGs are not as valuable to you, maybe those odds are fine in exchange for getting more shots.
So whether it is a good idea to buy up front, buy later, or never buy at all, depends quite a bit on what specific thing you want, and how many options you're willing to settle for.
Yes, I should buy the chronometer, because my luck is terrible.
That's a psychological thing, and as I said in the OP, I'm presenting the math, not dictating the choice. The math doesn't tell you what to choose. It tells you what the choice is. To be frank, I haven't decided what I'm going to do yet. Mostly because the choice is moot for another week and a half, so I have some time to think about it (no one can buy a Chronometer for another nine days or so, regardless of what they want to do).
Honestly, I'm trying to decide if it is worth going for the AG, or if 6* shards are more valuable to me at this point. I have several AGs, and nothing with a critical need to be awakened immediately. If I decide 6* shards are more valuable, I will likely buy the Chronometer and use it on that right up front. But still mulling.
If you have a 97 percent chance to NOT get an ag, and if one appears it's a 1 in 6 shot you get the one you want, how do you get 91 percent chance of getting it?
The thing that comes to mind about RNG is the Punisher out of arena crystals.
The 91% is the probability of seeing the ag color you want if you are searching for one specific color/class. The 97% chance to not get an ag is irrelevant in this calculation because we are assuming that we are guaranteed the ag if it's the color we want. Basically, the 91% is based off of a 1/6 chance 13 times. Please correct me if I'm wrong, DNA
That's correct. The odds of getting an AG if you do not use the Chronometer is 3%, so the odds of not getting it is 97%. But if you buy the Chronometer the odds of getting an AG are 100% in any run you use it in - assuming that's what you bought it for. You don't have to worry about the odds of the portal putting you on the AG path. What you do have to worry about is the AG class is random in every run, so if you want a particular class you have to run Rifts over and over until that class comes up, and then you use the Chronometer to make sure you get that AG.
But since the AG class is random, there's no guarantee you'll ever see the class you want. But the odds are pretty good over 13 runs. The odds of seeing the class you want is 1/6, so the odds of not seeing the class you want is 5/6. The odds of missing 13 times in a row is (5/6)^13 ~= 0.09. So the odds of striking out 13 times in a row is about 9%, so the odds of not striking out thirteen times in a row (meaning: your class came up at least once) is 91%.
These two numbers refer to two different situations, and the posts that mention those numbers generally do so in context in this thread.
Your math is off. Each time you run you have a 3% chance. So the odds of your gem coming up are 1/6 of 3%. If you buy the item to let you pick your path the odds are still 1/6 of 3% because that is the odds for finding it for the whole run. The item gives you 100% of 1/6 of 3% and without it just a 25% chance of 1/6 of 3%. Where are you getting such high numbers at. Your basicly telling people they will get multiple ags or ags almost every run with your numbers. The amount of maps you play don't increase the find odds it just let's you reroll that already small number.
But the odds of you picking the wrong AG are zero, because you aren't going to deliberately pick the wrong AG, because that would be stupid.
Based on previous quotes the chances of this happening are 100%
Well, I guess sometimes the AG you get is the one you deserve, not the one you need right now.
@DNA3000 If you want just one class of AG, and you save for rifts from the beginning, what is your calculation of the odds of never seeing the one class of AG you want?
@DNA3000 If you want just one class of AG, and you save for rifts from the beginning, what is your calculation of the odds of never seeing the one class of AG you want?
Just checking my math...
Dr. Zola
If you buy the Chronometer, you'll get 13 entries (assuming you max out on Intel) in which case the odds of not seeing one particular class is (5/6)^13 = 0.09346 or about 9% (9.346%). Which means the odds of seeing it are about 91%.
If you do not buy the Chronometer you'll get 18 entries, and the odds of not seeing your class is (5/6)^18 = 0.03756 or about 3.8%. Of course, if you don't buy the Chronometer odds are even if you see it, you won't get it.
Just for fun, if you want two classes the odds of not seeing those classes in 13 runs is (2/3)^13 = 0.005 or about 0.5%. If you want three classes the odds of not seeing any of those three in 13 runs is (1/2)^13 = 0.000122 or one in 8192 (0.01%).
Probably not worth calculating the wider class desirables after that.
@DNA3000 If you want just one class of AG, and you save for rifts from the beginning, what is your calculation of the odds of never seeing the one class of AG you want?
Just checking my math...
Dr. Zola
If you buy the Chronometer, you'll get 13 entries (assuming you max out on Intel) in which case the odds of not seeing one particular class is (5/6)^13 = 0.09346 or about 9% (9.346%). Which means the odds of seeing it are about 91%.
If you do not buy the Chronometer you'll get 18 entries, and the odds of not seeing your class is (5/6)^18 = 0.03756 or about 3.8%. Of course, if you don't buy the Chronometer odds are even if you see it, you won't get it.
Just for fun, if you want two classes the odds of not seeing those classes in 13 runs is (2/3)^13 = 0.005 or about 0.5%. If you want three classes the odds of not seeing any of those three in 13 runs is (1/2)^13 = 0.000122 or one in 8192 (0.01%).
Probably not worth calculating the wider class desirables after that.
Yep—I think I rounded up to get the ~10% number I’ve been assuming.
I rolled the dice twice and got “not unlucky”—that is, both rifts had a mutant AG, which I neither want nor need. I didn’t get it either time (sig stones and 1K 5* shards), so overall statistically I didn’t waste any “good luck” (if you assume there’s a ~1/3 chance of getting any AG path without the chronometer over 13 runs).
lmfao at the difficulty it is for you guys to understand all of this, its mind boggling.
In a world where people feel compelled to express an anonymous disagreement with math, I consider the people who only struggle to understand math to be several steps above average.
I think it is worth it, as there is no way to know those 5 extra rifts will give anything more. Also, for some people like me, these runs will be costly (revives, health pots, maybe boosts), so anything but the T5B will outweigh the costs.
Inn the case where it is effort to do an epic rift where you utilize items to get through it, then yes, if you don't get your most wanted item, settling for the best of what's in your last rift is the way to go with the chronometer.
Regardless, there is still zero reason to buy it until the end. Unless you're scared you're going to make a mistake.
Why wait till the end? If you want something and see it as a reward, I would go for it. I'll save up for a chronometer right now. Yeah sure, there is a chance to get double rewards but those odds are as high as waiting till last in hope of getting the wanted price easily.
I think it is worth it, as there is no way to know those 5 extra rifts will give anything more. Also, for some people like me, these runs will be costly (revives, health pots, maybe boosts), so anything but the T5B will outweigh the costs.
Inn the case where it is effort to do an epic rift where you utilize items to get through it, then yes, if you don't get your most wanted item, settling for the best of what's in your last rift is the way to go with the chronometer.
Regardless, there is still zero reason to buy it until the end. Unless you're scared you're going to make a mistake.
Why wait till the end? If you want something and see it as a reward, I would go for it. I'll save up for a chronometer right now. Yeah sure, there is a chance to get double rewards but those odds are as high as waiting till last in hope of getting the wanted price easily.
Because everyone is doing the math: suppose you go for the AG and for one of a particular class, getting that one AG in a regular rift run is a 1/6 of 3%, or 0.5%.
But say you really believe it is possible and you want to wait till last. Assuming every rift has a AG, you will probably have on average two times the AG you're looking for. On average. If you get your wanted AG early, there is always a risk you don't get a second chance and almost no chance for a third. That chance is pretty much always higher than getting a duplicate AG.
So the safest bet is to save for a chronometer now, do rifts as usual and use the chronometer the instant you see your wanted AG.
I think it is worth it, as there is no way to know those 5 extra rifts will give anything more. Also, for some people like me, these runs will be costly (revives, health pots, maybe boosts), so anything but the T5B will outweigh the costs.
Inn the case where it is effort to do an epic rift where you utilize items to get through it, then yes, if you don't get your most wanted item, settling for the best of what's in your last rift is the way to go with the chronometer.
Regardless, there is still zero reason to buy it until the end. Unless you're scared you're going to make a mistake.
Why wait till the end? If you want something and see it as a reward, I would go for it. I'll save up for a chronometer right now. Yeah sure, there is a chance to get double rewards but those odds are as high as waiting till last in hope of getting the wanted price easily.
One, I didn't say wait until the end. I said hold the 3k until you see the gem you want, then go buy the chronometer. And if you don't see it after #12, I'd rather get six more random rewards than one guaranteed.
If I don't see the gem I want, I'd rather do all 18 rifts than settle for the best of what the 13th rift offers.
I ran two. I got a T2A and 4500 T5B Frags. I'm saving for it now. That'll give me time to focus on all EQs leisurely and then have fun with Rifts after.
I think it is worth it, as there is no way to know those 5 extra rifts will give anything more. Also, for some people like me, these runs will be costly (revives, health pots, maybe boosts), so anything but the T5B will outweigh the costs.
Inn the case where it is effort to do an epic rift where you utilize items to get through it, then yes, if you don't get your most wanted item, settling for the best of what's in your last rift is the way to go with the chronometer.
Regardless, there is still zero reason to buy it until the end. Unless you're scared you're going to make a mistake.
Why wait till the end? If you want something and see it as a reward, I would go for it. I'll save up for a chronometer right now. Yeah sure, there is a chance to get double rewards but those odds are as high as waiting till last in hope of getting the wanted price easily.
One, I didn't say wait until the end. I said hold the 3k until you see the gem you want, then go buy the chronometer. And if you don't see it after #12, I'd rather get six more random rewards than one guaranteed.
If I don't see the gem I want, I'd rather do all 18 rifts than settle for the best of what the 13th rift offers.
As long as you realize that the best of what the 13th Rift contains could be the actual AG you were looking for in the previous 12. At the moment you make the decision there’s a one on six chance you’re passing up the AG you’re hunting for, assuming you’re hunting for one particular class.
You keep saying “settle” as if you know the 13th Rift doesn’t contain the AG you’re looking for. But that’s not true, because you have to make your final decision to buy or not buy the Chronometer before you enter. You have the option to buy the Chronometer after entering and seeing the rewards only for the first 12 runs. That option disappears before you enter the 13th, because there’s not enough intel to both buy entry 13 and buy the Chronometer package after entering.
So in exchange for getting six normal random runs without the benefit of being able to use the chronometer you’re giving up the option to use the Chronometer on Rift 13 which is *at least* as valuable as whichever reward you think is most valuable except for a specific class AG, but could also be in fact that actual class AG as well.
I guess it has been asked and answered many times yet I couldn't find an answer as of yet. So the question is ;
Lets say I have 3500 intel and I spend 500 and go into the rift and see the ag I want and go back to main menu (without leaving the quest) buy the chrono and then continue. Is this possible? I guess yes, but I am not sure. In this case if I dont see the ag I want I will not spend the intel.
2 days ago I tried to go back to the menu without quitting the event and it worked so I guess we can, right?
lmfao at the difficulty it is for you guys to understand all of this, its mind boggling.
Agree to an extent. There are always some who don’t get statistics in any sense (if you read the forums regularly, they are everywhere in every thread). With respect to them, I agree.
But the calculation and discussion here about whether it’s worth it for an individual account to lose 5 random outcomes in exchange for a (virtually) guaranteed specific outcome—based on the expected values of those 5 additional random outcomes—is a legitimate question.
People play the “odds” all the time; this entire game is about playing the “odds.” The expected values @DNA3000 cites at the thread top aren’t a guarantee. Clearly, they could be worse or better. If you don’t care about the downside, or if the prizes aren’t as valuable to you overall, I think it’s far from foolish or irrational to skip the Chronometer entirely.
I think it is worth it, as there is no way to know those 5 extra rifts will give anything more. Also, for some people like me, these runs will be costly (revives, health pots, maybe boosts), so anything but the T5B will outweigh the costs.
Inn the case where it is effort to do an epic rift where you utilize items to get through it, then yes, if you don't get your most wanted item, settling for the best of what's in your last rift is the way to go with the chronometer.
Regardless, there is still zero reason to buy it until the end. Unless you're scared you're going to make a mistake.
Why wait till the end? If you want something and see it as a reward, I would go for it. I'll save up for a chronometer right now. Yeah sure, there is a chance to get double rewards but those odds are as high as waiting till last in hope of getting the wanted price easily.
One, I didn't say wait until the end. I said hold the 3k until you see the gem you want, then go buy the chronometer. And if you don't see it after #12, I'd rather get six more random rewards than one guaranteed.
If I don't see the gem I want, I'd rather do all 18 rifts than settle for the best of what the 13th rift offers.
As long as you realize that the best of what the 13th Rift contains could be the actual AG you were looking for in the previous 12. At the moment you make the decision there’s a one on six chance you’re passing up the AG you’re hunting for, assuming you’re hunting for one particular class.
You keep saying “settle” as if you know the 13th Rift doesn’t contain the AG you’re looking for. But that’s not true, because you have to make your final decision to buy or not buy the Chronometer before you enter. You have the option to buy the Chronometer after entering and seeing the rewards only for the first 12 runs. That option disappears before you enter the 13th, because there’s not enough intel to both buy entry 13 and buy the Chronometer package after entering.
So in exchange for getting six normal random runs without the benefit of being able to use the chronometer you’re giving up the option to use the Chronometer on Rift 13 which is *at least* as valuable as whichever reward you think is most valuable except for a specific class AG, but could also be in fact that actual class AG as well.
After 12...Im done banking on the one I want being there and am willing to accept the random of six more. It's a choice. One or the other. I'd rather get six more rifts of helpful 5* sig stones.l or shards than an AG of a class I have sitting in inventory collecting dust. Not to mention, many Champs awakening to a +1 make a minimal difference, and I'm already pumping sig stones into my worthwhile awakened Champs. So giving me a sig stone for certain classes would be a waste to me.
Everyone is in a different situation. So do what's best for you. I'd rather get rewards from six more rifts if my AG of choice doesn't show up the first 12 times. I'm not willing to cross my fingers and waste six more rewards on the minimal chance my class AG is going to show on number 13.
If you're willing to accept #13 will do it for you after 12 unsuccessful ones, great, buy the chronometer after 12. What do I care?
And if you're class AG doesn't show, you're banking on the best in that rift is going to be better than six random ones. Great. Wonderful. Go for it.
I'll take my chances on six random rewards than one guaranteed. And again, I'd rather get sig stones than 6* shards. One new 6* a couple weeks sooner isn't helping my roster tackle tough content. I'll take sig stones for CapIW, Sunspot, Corvus, Sentinel and Claire V all day long. Vast majority of my sigs are based on stones and not dupes. And behind that there are other Champs that can use them too well before other things coming from the rift. I cared as much about 6's as I did 5's when they came out.
Yes it is, and as I've been saying since the beginning not everyone should choose to do the same thing: it depends on how you value the options. But people keep misrepresenting what the options actually are: even you did so several times in this thread. If people actually know what the options are, and they choose one way or the other, that's fine. If they choose one way because they were misled by people who either don't understand probability, don't understand risk assessment, or don't understand how the rifts work, then that's a different story.
What I'm doing is offering people a better base to make an informed choice. But which one they choose is still based on what they themselves would rather have. You can decide to forgo the Chronometer altogether regardless of what shows up if you just want to spin the wheel as many times as possible and see what you get. That thought had crossed my mind as well, as AG's are not as valuable to me. If that's what you want, that's what you should do.
But no one should try to justify their preferences by misrepresenting the choice itself. When I first started this thread, there were a substantial number of people claiming that holding was better than buying up front, because you could waste the Intel. But that misrepresents the difference between the "buy up front" strategy and the "don't buy unless you see strategy." If someone says the latter strategy has one fewer shot at what you want but they think that's worth it to open the option for more random Rifts, I'm fine with that. If someone says the latter strategy is always better, then that's false and I'm going to correct that.
I never said it wasn't a choice. Bottom line is if you're coveting a specific item or two or whatever that you just have to have, then there is still zero reason to buy it beforehand. You can just wait until you see it on the rift and then go buy the chronometer and get your prize.
There is zero harm in waiting to buy it unless you're just plain butt f'ing stupid, lazy, forgetful or what not and see your item and move mistakingly, forgetting to buy it. Idnoyu think you're thta type, then surely buy it up front.
If you are doing the wait and see and make it through 12 rifts without seeing it, this is where the choice comes into play. Are you willing to bank on seeing your coveted prize in rift 13 and buy the Chrono, or do you not want to chance one and done at that point and take the random rewards of six more rifts. If you buy the Chrono and don't see your coveted prize, will you be happy with the best that rift has to offer or do you think you'd be happier with 6 more random rewards?
You can figure out odds and probabilities until you're blue in the face. Meaningless. You either are banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that's in there or you're not and would be happier with six more random. Again, zero reason to commit ahead of time.
I was going to find the quote, but you saved me the trouble by saying, again:
You can figure out odds and probabilities until you're blue in the face. Meaningless. You either are banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that's in there or you're not and would be happier with six more random. Again, zero reason to commit ahead of time.
Because this statement is false in multiple ways. First of all, these odds and probabilities you're calling meaningless are the basis for making an informed choice. You might have a preference that supercedes them, but even that is a decision you can only make in an informed way if you know what they are first.
Second, when you say "either you're banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that is in there or not" those are not the only two possibilities. Here's the obvious third: you want as many chances as possible to use the Chronometer on an AG of a particular class. That is neither banking on a reward nor is it "willing to settle." It is taking a calculated risk based on the odds you think are meaningless.
But also, it is contradictory on its face to say "I never said it wasn't a choice" and then say "zero reason to commit ahead of time." You're saying everyone can choose but only one choice is valid, which makes the statement about choice completely meaningless.
Maybe it is you that is willing to settle for the best of whatever RNG happens to give you. If you think that is a valid characterization, it should work both ways.
Your probability and calculations do not change based on when you purchase the chronometer. Having possession of the chronometer doesn't change a thing when you enter a rift because you're allowed to go buy it once you enter it.
So where is this so called benefit of buying it up front? It doesn't make you more or less likely to see your prize of choice when entering a rift. So what is the benefit? Please explain how the odds change by having it in your possession from the get go or waiting to buy it once you see your prize in a rift.
The only thing buying up front does is commit you to only running 13. And if you don't see your prize of choice in 13 runs, you "settle" for the best prize that's on the board in your last rift. If your choice is prize A, but you get prize B, the term for that is called "settling". You took the calculated risk. You failed. Here is your door prize. It's only one prize. But you got to choose it.
If you don't buy it up front, and if you don't see the prize you want after 12 rifts, this is where the real choice and real risk come into play.
Your two choices are
a) buy the chronometer, run rift 13 and take the best prize that's there, hoping it's the prize you want. This is the same result as above if you bought it up front and made it to rift 13 not getting your desired prize.
Or b) say you're done trying to get that one prize after 12. Skip the Chrono and buy the remaining rifts and collect your random prizes.
Assuming you did not find your prize of choice, what is this third option you speak of?
How do the odds change based on when you buy the Chrono? How does the probability of choose the prize you want increase by buying the Chrono up front as opposed to when you see that prize in the rift and going to buy it?
Considering having possession of the Chrono before you enter a rift has nothing to do with the rewards shown, and you have the ability to buy it when you're in the rift, the odds are the same. So the benefit of buying it up front is what?
The only thing buying it up front does is remove all possibility of running 18 rifts. It does nothing for improving your odds in any way, shape or form. It removes the choice of deciding after rift 12 to either shoot your shot in 13 or go random for all of the remaining ones.
While not getting the desired prize, you might have gotten some decent random rewards in 12 runs. Maybe to the point the risk of doing number 13 with the chrono isn't worth giving up five more randoms. Maybe, at that point, taking one more shot to guarantee your prize after 12 unsuccessful attempts is no longer worth it.
It all comes down to 13. Is 13 a guaranteed pick or is it the first of the final remaining runs. That is where all your risk is.
Assuming you did not find your prize of choice, what is this third option you speak of?
Conflating reasons and choices suggests to me this line of thought doesn’t have a termination point worth pursuing. I think the majority of people who have been actually reading understand the *two^ primary strategies being discussed, and the *multiple* rationales for pursuing each, depending on what the player priorities are.
I don’t think explaining equilibrium theory made Nash crazy, but I can see how it didn’t help any.
Comments
This is very, very, very straight forward statistical calculation. I don't expect the average person to be able to do this, which is why I posted the calculations myself, but anyone with any sort of math background should be able to do the same analysis trivially.
Well, buying up front you have a 1 - (2/3)^13 = 0.99486 ~= 99.5% chance to see one of the two classes you want. If you don't buy up front, you have a 1 - (2/3)^12 ~ 99.2% chance to see what you want. Not a huge difference, and maybe enough to shift the balance towards not buying the Chronometer.
What if you don't care about class at all, and any AG would be great? In that case, buying the Chronometer means you have a 100% chance to get an AG, because of course. But if you don't, the odds you randomly get an AG in the first twelve Rifts is about 1 - (0.97)^12 ~ 31%. If you don't, you could buy a Chronometer and get an AG in Rift #13 guaranteed. Which means there's a 31% chance you won't have to buy the Chronometer and thus get five extra runs. This assumes you want one, but wouldn't spend to get two AGs. If so, skipping the Chronometer up front and holding off until later is a reasonable, and possibly valuable option (again: this assumes you want one, but don't really need two). Alternatively, you could pass on the Chronometer altogether and just see what you get in 18 runs. The odds of getting any AG at all at least once is about 1 - (0.97)^18 ~ 42%. If AGs are not as valuable to you, maybe those odds are fine in exchange for getting more shots.
So whether it is a good idea to buy up front, buy later, or never buy at all, depends quite a bit on what specific thing you want, and how many options you're willing to settle for.
Honestly, I'm trying to decide if it is worth going for the AG, or if 6* shards are more valuable to me at this point. I have several AGs, and nothing with a critical need to be awakened immediately. If I decide 6* shards are more valuable, I will likely buy the Chronometer and use it on that right up front. But still mulling.
Just checking my math...
Dr. Zola
If you do not buy the Chronometer you'll get 18 entries, and the odds of not seeing your class is (5/6)^18 = 0.03756 or about 3.8%. Of course, if you don't buy the Chronometer odds are even if you see it, you won't get it.
Just for fun, if you want two classes the odds of not seeing those classes in 13 runs is (2/3)^13 = 0.005 or about 0.5%.
If you want three classes the odds of not seeing any of those three in 13 runs is (1/2)^13 = 0.000122 or one in 8192 (0.01%).
Probably not worth calculating the wider class desirables after that.
I rolled the dice twice and got “not unlucky”—that is, both rifts had a mutant AG, which I neither want nor need. I didn’t get it either time (sig stones and 1K 5* shards), so overall statistically I didn’t waste any “good luck” (if you assume there’s a ~1/3 chance of getting any AG path without the chronometer over 13 runs).
Dr. Zola
But say you really believe it is possible and you want to wait till last. Assuming every rift has a AG, you will probably have on average two times the AG you're looking for. On average. If you get your wanted AG early, there is always a risk you don't get a second chance and almost no chance for a third. That chance is pretty much always higher than getting a duplicate AG.
So the safest bet is to save for a chronometer now, do rifts as usual and use the chronometer the instant you see your wanted AG.
If I don't see the gem I want, I'd rather do all 18 rifts than settle for the best of what the 13th rift offers.
You keep saying “settle” as if you know the 13th Rift doesn’t contain the AG you’re looking for. But that’s not true, because you have to make your final decision to buy or not buy the Chronometer before you enter. You have the option to buy the Chronometer after entering and seeing the rewards only for the first 12 runs. That option disappears before you enter the 13th, because there’s not enough intel to both buy entry 13 and buy the Chronometer package after entering.
So in exchange for getting six normal random runs without the benefit of being able to use the chronometer you’re giving up the option to use the Chronometer on Rift 13 which is *at least* as valuable as whichever reward you think is most valuable except for a specific class AG, but could also be in fact that actual class AG as well.
Lets say I have 3500 intel and I spend 500 and go into the rift and see the ag I want and go back to main menu (without leaving the quest) buy the chrono and then continue. Is this possible? I guess yes, but I am not sure. In this case if I dont see the ag I want I will not spend the intel.
2 days ago I tried to go back to the menu without quitting the event and it worked so I guess we can, right?
But the calculation and discussion here about whether it’s worth it for an individual account to lose 5 random outcomes in exchange for a (virtually) guaranteed specific outcome—based on the expected values of those 5 additional random outcomes—is a legitimate question.
People play the “odds” all the time; this entire game is about playing the “odds.” The expected values @DNA3000 cites at the thread top aren’t a guarantee. Clearly, they could be worse or better. If you don’t care about the downside, or if the prizes aren’t as valuable to you overall, I think it’s far from foolish or irrational to skip the Chronometer entirely.
Dr. Zola
Everyone is in a different situation. So do what's best for you. I'd rather get rewards from six more rifts if my AG of choice doesn't show up the first 12 times. I'm not willing to cross my fingers and waste six more rewards on the minimal chance my class AG is going to show on number 13.
If you're willing to accept #13 will do it for you after 12 unsuccessful ones, great, buy the chronometer after 12. What do I care?
And if you're class AG doesn't show, you're banking on the best in that rift is going to be better than six random ones. Great. Wonderful. Go for it.
I'll take my chances on six random rewards than one guaranteed. And again, I'd rather get sig stones than 6* shards. One new 6* a couple weeks sooner isn't helping my roster tackle tough content. I'll take sig stones for CapIW, Sunspot, Corvus, Sentinel and Claire V all day long. Vast majority of my sigs are based on stones and not dupes. And behind that there are other Champs that can use them too well before other things coming from the rift. I cared as much about 6's as I did 5's when they came out.
What I'm doing is offering people a better base to make an informed choice. But which one they choose is still based on what they themselves would rather have. You can decide to forgo the Chronometer altogether regardless of what shows up if you just want to spin the wheel as many times as possible and see what you get. That thought had crossed my mind as well, as AG's are not as valuable to me. If that's what you want, that's what you should do.
But no one should try to justify their preferences by misrepresenting the choice itself. When I first started this thread, there were a substantial number of people claiming that holding was better than buying up front, because you could waste the Intel. But that misrepresents the difference between the "buy up front" strategy and the "don't buy unless you see strategy." If someone says the latter strategy has one fewer shot at what you want but they think that's worth it to open the option for more random Rifts, I'm fine with that. If someone says the latter strategy is always better, then that's false and I'm going to correct that.
There is zero harm in waiting to buy it unless you're just plain butt f'ing stupid, lazy, forgetful or what not and see your item and move mistakingly, forgetting to buy it. Idnoyu think you're thta type, then surely buy it up front.
If you are doing the wait and see and make it through 12 rifts without seeing it, this is where the choice comes into play. Are you willing to bank on seeing your coveted prize in rift 13 and buy the Chrono, or do you not want to chance one and done at that point and take the random rewards of six more rifts. If you buy the Chrono and don't see your coveted prize, will you be happy with the best that rift has to offer or do you think you'd be happier with 6 more random rewards?
You can figure out odds and probabilities until you're blue in the face. Meaningless. You either are banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that's in there or you're not and would be happier with six more random. Again, zero reason to commit ahead of time.
Because this statement is false in multiple ways. First of all, these odds and probabilities you're calling meaningless are the basis for making an informed choice. You might have a preference that supercedes them, but even that is a decision you can only make in an informed way if you know what they are first.
Second, when you say "either you're banking on your reward or willing to settle for the best that is in there or not" those are not the only two possibilities. Here's the obvious third: you want as many chances as possible to use the Chronometer on an AG of a particular class. That is neither banking on a reward nor is it "willing to settle." It is taking a calculated risk based on the odds you think are meaningless.
But also, it is contradictory on its face to say "I never said it wasn't a choice" and then say "zero reason to commit ahead of time." You're saying everyone can choose but only one choice is valid, which makes the statement about choice completely meaningless.
Maybe it is you that is willing to settle for the best of whatever RNG happens to give you. If you think that is a valid characterization, it should work both ways.
So where is this so called benefit of buying it up front? It doesn't make you more or less likely to see your prize of choice when entering a rift. So what is the benefit? Please explain how the odds change by having it in your possession from the get go or waiting to buy it once you see your prize in a rift.
The only thing buying up front does is commit you to only running 13. And if you don't see your prize of choice in 13 runs, you "settle" for the best prize that's on the board in your last rift. If your choice is prize A, but you get prize B, the term for that is called "settling". You took the calculated risk. You failed. Here is your door prize. It's only one prize. But you got to choose it.
If you don't buy it up front, and if you don't see the prize you want after 12 rifts, this is where the real choice and real risk come into play.
Your two choices are
a) buy the chronometer, run rift 13 and take the best prize that's there, hoping it's the prize you want. This is the same result as above if you bought it up front and made it to rift 13 not getting your desired prize.
Or b) say you're done trying to get that one prize after 12. Skip the Chrono and buy the remaining rifts and collect your random prizes.
Assuming you did not find your prize of choice, what is this third option you speak of?
How do the odds change based on when you buy the Chrono? How does the probability of choose the prize you want increase by buying the Chrono up front as opposed to when you see that prize in the rift and going to buy it?
Considering having possession of the Chrono before you enter a rift has nothing to do with the rewards shown, and you have the ability to buy it when you're in the rift, the odds are the same. So the benefit of buying it up front is what?
The only thing buying it up front does is remove all possibility of running 18 rifts. It does nothing for improving your odds in any way, shape or form. It removes the choice of deciding after rift 12 to either shoot your shot in 13 or go random for all of the remaining ones.
While not getting the desired prize, you might have gotten some decent random rewards in 12 runs. Maybe to the point the risk of doing number 13 with the chrono isn't worth giving up five more randoms. Maybe, at that point, taking one more shot to guarantee your prize after 12 unsuccessful attempts is no longer worth it.
It all comes down to 13. Is 13 a guaranteed pick or is it the first of the final remaining runs. That is where all your risk is.
I don’t think explaining equilibrium theory made Nash crazy, but I can see how it didn’t help any.