UC vs Regular arena crystals

So I just got UC yesterday(yay!) but decided to open some UC arena crystals.
I pulled 75 units and ~20000 gold
Can @DNA3000 explain which one is better overall to open?
Thanks

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ZeepZorp

If you exclude the punishers in both crystals, there isn't much difference between the two.

Lvernon15

Even though strictly speaking the chances are the same and the rewards to battlechip ratio is the same I go for regular, they’re just so much more consistent, in the uncollected it isn’t uncommon to open 100 or even 200k bc without a single unit, the chance if that in regular is near 0, and the chance to get punished is so low it’s nit worth going for

Arps

I open regular for units and UC for gold. 100k bc regular usually end up with about 180 units. 100k UC I usually end up with no units.

SummonerNR

So I just got UC yesterday(yay!) but decided to open some UC arena crystals.
I pulled 75 units and ~20000 gold
Can @DNA3000 explain which one is better overall to open?
Thanks

Well, you wanted his analysis, and here it is 😀 ...

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/173631/arena-crystal-drop-odds-analysis#latest

[Deleted User]

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Feuerschwer

The regular crystals are more likely to give you some units, but the UC crystals give you a LOT when they do; long-term it averages out, except that UC crystals give a higher-tier Punisher.

DNA3000

So I just got UC yesterday(yay!) but decided to open some UC arena crystals.
I pulled 75 units and ~20000 gold
Can @DNA3000 explain which one is better overall to open?
Thanks

As others have mentioned, in terms of drop odds the average return for things like gold and units is identical, so the only difference is the rank of Punisher that drops as a rare drop. This technically makes the UC crystal better overall. However, it is also true that because you open more regular crystals than UC for the same amount of battle chips you are more likely to get the average amount of stuff with normal crystals and more likely to get either much higher or much lower than the average when you open UC. Think about coin flips. On average you’re going to get 50% heads and 50% tails. But if you flip only once, you’re either going to get all heads or all tails, because of course. The more you flip the closer to that 50/50 you’ll get over time. But if you only flip a couple of times you could get a much different result.

So if you open tons of arena crystals, I’d say always open UC. In the long run you’ll end up slightly ahead (due to the better Punisher). But if you don’t open a lot of them, or you really hate getting short term unlucky, it doesn’t hurt much to open regular crystals. The Punisher is a relatively rare drop regardless.