Login Crystal Actual Drop Rates

If anyone's interested to know, here are the results of the surveys last month and this month.

The chance to pull a 5* from it is around 3%, which is between the chances of pulling a 6* from a cavalier crystal and pulling a 5* from a grandmaster crystal.

The info is indeed trivial and doesn't really change anything regarding the outcome. Still, thanks to those who answered the polls.

Cheers 🍻

Comments

SpideyFunko

Does this mean no more?

I think a years worth of data would be most precise

Hieitaku

Does this mean no more?

I think a years worth of data would be most precise

I'll continue it and hope we'll consistently get well over 100 responses to have at least a tiny semblance of representation for every month.

Stellan

You've got some statistical issues though as anyone can vote, such as players of different progression levels with different drop rates and star levels which negatively affects the validity of the poll. I like the idea though and it certainly provides an orientation but perhaps not something definite.

SpideyFunko

You've got some statistical issues though as anyone can vote, such as players of different progression levels with different drop rates and star levels which negatively affects the validity of the poll. I like the idea though and it certainly provides an orientation but perhaps not something definite.

it’s only for the cavalier players. You make a good point, but enough people have common sense to not vote in these polls

ItsDamien

Also the problem with Forum Poll data is that many people who are able to get the 5* from the login crystal, aren't even on the forums. A slice of 150-250 people isn't even close to representative of the overall population. At best that's probably 0.1% of the people able to claim the potential 5*.

Stellan

You've got some statistical issues though as anyone can vote, such as players of different progression levels with different drop rates and star levels which negatively affects the validity of the poll. I like the idea though and it certainly provides an orientation but perhaps not something definite.
it’s only for the cavalier players. You make a good point, but enough people have common sense to not vote in these polls

That's why you have closed surveys that requires you to specify your identity before being able to enter the survey in order to establish validity /reliability. Not meaning to be annoying but this doesn't secure significant results and the assumption that only cavalier players votes certainly does not.

Stellan

Also the problem with Forum Poll data is that many people who are able to get the 5* from the login crystal, aren't even on the forums. A slice of 150-250 people isn't even close to representative of the overall population. At best that's probably 0.1% of the people able to claim the potential 5*.

Normal distribution sets in at a total number of 30 and 250 is certainly representative for a limited population. It's not nationally representative but the representative issues here are not the amount of participants.

Demonzfyre

413 people out of lets ballpark 150 mil, conservatively, that could be cavailer is not even close to enough data to make any assumptions. One thing we can all agree on is that the 5* drop rate is pretty low. I've not gotten a 5* since they made the change.

Stellan

413 people out of lets ballpark 150 mil, conservatively, that could be cavailer is not even close to enough data to make any assumptions. One thing we can all agree on is that the 5* drop rate is pretty low. I've not gotten a 5* since they made the change.

That's not how statistics works. If reliability, validity and significant results are accomplished, a survey of 413 participation absolutely provides information regarding a population size well above the millions.

Stellan

I hope I'm not coming of as completely negative here, I think the poll idea is great and I hope it persists as the results are quite interesting and relevant, just perhaps not definite.

Hieitaku

I meant to put in "The collected data suggests that the chances.." but the 15-min edit window has already past when I got the opportunity to do so.

I'm aware that this is nowhere near the best possible, let alone ideal, method of collecting the data. It is, however, the easiest and most convenient one to do without putting too much effort for the expected quality of the results.

We mostly just have to rely on the honesty and civility of the people answering the polls. If ever there are a handful who would answer dishonestly, the statistician can only hope the volume of the data will make those dishonest answers insignificant.

GroundedWisdom

413 people out of lets ballpark 150 mil, conservatively, that could be cavailer is not even close to enough data to make any assumptions. One thing we can all agree on is that the 5* drop rate is pretty low. I've not gotten a 5* since they made the change.

I've never gotten a 4* from before, or a 5* after.

Hieitaku

To state it in a different way, the data suggests that each eligible summoner should get a 5* from the cavalier login crystal around once every 3 years. 😆

unknown

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