Please fix this algorithm

There’s no way that this is random. Every variant completed, science 3>4 gem and 4>5 gem. I’m maxed on the 4>5 gems and used one of the 3>4 on classic Spider-Man cause he’s one of my favorite characters in game.

Comments

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DNA3000

The exact odds for [certain given event] are irrelevant. You can calculate them for fun, but they serve no informational value.

Each crystal is it's own independent event and does neither influence following events, nor is it itself influenced by former events.

So while you could calculate a very smoll chance for pulling [X] of the same thing [X] in a row, that is not what the game is calculating. I think the cognitive dissonance for most starts in the misconception that some of the mathematic formulas make it look as if the odds for having [X] happen multiple times in a row actually get smaller, which simply isn't the case.

You'll always have a 1 in 6 chance to pull [X] class out a rank up gem crystal, no matter how many you open at once or in succession. The distinct event of "pulling 6 science rank up gems out of 6 rank up gem crystals all of them on a monday while everytime a stray cat is meowing mozart in an alley nearby" and it's odds are irrelevant to what the game calculates.
If I wanted to know the probability of pulling 6 science gems in a row, the answer is not 1/6 simply because each one is it's own independent outcome. I can still tie these together to figure out the probability of ALL of them being science (using the math supplied by @Felganos )
Yes, but the probability of "pulling 6 science gems in a row" is irrelevant.

In terms of what the game calculates you're not pulling 6 science gems in a row, you're pulling a science gem. And then you're pulling a science gem. After that you pull a science gem. Then a science gem. Then a acience gem. And then you pull a science gem.

They're individual instances and get calculated as such. The odds for the distinct scenario of "pulling 6 science gems in a row" creates the flawed picture of that being somewhat improbable to happen in the game, while in actuality no pull is influenced by any former pull or any pull coming after it.

Each pull has a 1 in 6 chance and that's the only actual relevant formula here. The odds for pulling a science gem after a science gem do not magically decrease. Neither does this make sense in terms of what this game calculates, nor is that what probability actually teaches us.

I'm not sure what you mean by "irrelevant." There is an actual probability of pulling, say, six science gems in a row, and that probability has a real world meaning attached. It is the probability that, before you open any crystals, you will witness six science openings in a row. That's what the probability calculation literally means.

The game doesn't calculate that, any more than dice calculate anything at all. But there is still a calculable probability of, say, rolling sevens ten times in a row. What I think youi're getting confused about is the fact that probability encapsulates a measure of unknown stochastic information. In other words, before you open any crystals the odds of opening six science in a row is (1/6)^6. But after you open one and you discover it is science, the odds of opening six in a row is (1/6)^5, because you only need five science openings in a row to make six. The first one has already happened, so its probability of happening is now 100%.

There's a saying in statistics, which is paraphrased as "the odds of history happening is always 100%." History has already happened, so the odds of history happening any other way are zero.

It is also important to note that people often calculate the wrong probability numbers for reasons related to this. For example, when someone opens six science gems they ask what the odds of opening six science in a row are. But they are generally failing to account for the fact that the noteworthy thing here is six identical in a row, not six science in a row. Had they opened six cosmic, they would have been saying the same thing. The odds of pulling six identical in a row is (1/6)^5, not (1/6)^6, because the first one can literally be anything: it is the other five that have to match it.

If you don't account for this principle you get to nonsensical results. For example, if I open one science, one skill, one cosmic, another science, a tech, and another cosmic, what are the odds of that happening in precisely that way? It is the same calculation as calculating the odds of pulling six science in a row: (1/6)^6. In other words, the odds of that exact sequence happening are identical to the odds of opening six science in a row. The reason why this is counter-intuitive is because the first sequence isn't "interesting" so no one talks about it. This is sometimes known as significance bias in statistics, and is really the Fundamental Counting Principle in disguise.

Another thing people don't fully account for is the fact that when we calculate the odds of pulling six identical gems in a row as (1/6)^5, which is one in 7776, we sometimes jump to the conclusion that one in 7776 players will see this. But that's not entirely true, because individual players don't have only one shot at this. If a player opens seven crystals and the first one is cosmic and the next six are science, they will only remember the six in a row. They won't remember or care about the first one not being science. But while the odds of seeing six identical class openings in a row out of exactly six openings is one in 7776, the odds of seeing six science in a row out of seven openings is about one in 4241. As the number of openings increases the odds of seeing six science in a row also increases (it is about one in 3255 for eight openings). The more crystals you open, and for that matter the more crystals all players open, the more likely it is you'll see this sequence, and it doesn't take 7776x6 openings for the odds to become likely.

GroundedWisdom

These outcomes are not swayed by what you pulled previously. They're not affected by previous pulls, your Inventory, your needs, or any other factor. Nor are they necessarily consecutively counted because you would have to see all outcomes from the server in succession, not just one Account. The simple fact is every opening is a 1 in 6 chance at any outcome.

Dhorne61

Guys I’m sorry I stirred this up. Was generally just salty that I have these gems and no one to use them on. Listening to the math wizards here is hurting my tiny brain. Hope all of you are doing well. Have a great day. Just for reference these are my 5* science champs.

Madcat

These outcomes are not swayed by what you pulled previously. They're not affected by previous pulls, your Inventory, your needs, or any other factor. Nor are they necessarily consecutively counted because you would have to see all outcomes from the server in succession, not just one Account. The simple fact is every opening is a 1 in 6 chance at any outcome.

This is not true. DNA3000 did a great job of explaining it. Math is not hard people.

Dhorne61

Just 100% v1. Wanna know what rank up gems i got?

Agent_X_zzz

It happens, quit complaining

Eb0ny-O-M4w

Why revive this thread?

Dhorne61

Because I’m tired of this bs.

Why revive this thread?

unknown

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Demonzfyre

Because I’m tired of this bs.
Why revive this thread?

Wait for Red Guardian then.🤷

tidusx2jr

Ppl really complain about any and everything that doesn't go their way in the game.

Menkent

Next month's EQ should introduce the guy from Khan Academy as a new villain. You have to multiply fractions to beat him. Cue floods of people coming to the forum talking about "impossible nodes not fair rigged system!" because they insist that one half times one half equals one.

Eternal_Tripod83

How about just make the rewards a generic gem. After all that work I don’t think it’s asking too much. Also, maybe take away the gold cost in gems. Half the gold rewarded for variant exploration goes to using the gem that gets rewarded with it.

Kerneas

That’s a 1/6 chance for three pulls. There’s less than a 1% chance that if I did this three more time I would get three of the same class again. They have a patented algorithm that gives you more of what you already have.

1% is one in a hundred. @DNA3000 pointed out here, that the chance is even lower (1 in 1296). But try to look it this way: let's have a million players (I think we could find that many worldwide). If the chance were 1% as you said, then this should happen to 10 000 players. If it is 1:1296, it should happen to roughly 750 people out of the million. That means this situation isn't nearly as rare as it seems.

Besides, for the little amount of people there is a high probability they will come and complain about them being unlucky. The average majority will not be heard, because their pulls aren't outstanding in any way.

P.S.: Please pardon any miscalculations from my side, especially the 10^6/1296, it is a rough estimate from top of my head.

Cliffordcan

Bruh, just pull a Schrödinger’s cat. Don’t open the crystal and imagine the 6 different realities that are existing beyond your awareness (in your case just the 5 outcomes besides Science). It’s much better than real life. You’re welcome.

Mr_Platypus

I’ve had 3/3 tech 4-5 gems so far, don’t see me putting a tinfoil hat on and starting threads.
Also it was quite funny that you called out dna3000 on maths... you had already lost by that point

Colinwhitworth69

...the same to pull 6 science or 1 of each, or any other combo

I keep trying to tell people this, but their heads explode.

Colinwhitworth69

And therefore? I can still take independent outcomes and estimate the probability of obtaining a specific combination of outcomes from my combined independent trials.

You would get the same result if you calculated pulling six science gems in a row and pulling one of each class in a row.

Colinwhitworth69

The exact odds for [certain given event] are irrelevant. You can calculate them for fun, but they serve no informational value.

Each crystal is it's own independent event and does neither influence following events, nor is it itself influenced by former events.

So while you could calculate a very smoll chance for pulling [X] of the same thing [X] in a row, that is not what the game is calculating. I think the cognitive dissonance for most starts in the misconception that some of the mathematic formulas make it look as if the odds for having [X] happen multiple times in a row actually get smaller, which simply isn't the case.

You'll always have a 1 in 6 chance to pull [X] class out a rank up gem crystal, no matter how many you open at once or in succession. The distinct event of "pulling 6 science rank up gems out of 6 rank up gem crystals all of them on a monday while everytime a stray cat is meowing mozart in an alley nearby" and it's odds are irrelevant to what the game calculates.
If I wanted to know the probability of pulling 6 science gems in a row, the answer is not 1/6 simply because each one is it's own independent outcome. I can still tie these together to figure out the probability of ALL of them being science (using the math supplied by @Felganos )
Yes, but the probability of "pulling 6 science gems in a row" is irrelevant.

In terms of what the game calculates you're not pulling 6 science gems in a row, you're pulling a science gem. And then you're pulling a science gem. After that you pull a science gem. Then a science gem. Then a acience gem. And then you pull a science gem.

They're individual instances and get calculated as such. The odds for the distinct scenario of "pulling 6 science gems in a row" creates the flawed picture of that being somewhat improbable to happen in the game, while in actuality no pull is influenced by any former pull or any pull coming after it.

Each pull has a 1 in 6 chance and that's the only actual relevant formula here. The odds for pulling a science gem after a science gem do not magically decrease. Neither does this make sense in terms of what this game calculates, nor is that what probability actually teaches us.
I'm not sure what you mean by "irrelevant." There is an actual probability of pulling, say, six science gems in a row, and that probability has a real world meaning attached. It is the probability that, before you open any crystals, you will witness six science openings in a row. That's what the probability calculation literally means.

The game doesn't calculate that, any more than dice calculate anything at all. But there is still a calculable probability of, say, rolling sevens ten times in a row. What I think youi're getting confused about is the fact that probability encapsulates a measure of unknown stochastic information. In other words, before you open any crystals the odds of opening six science in a row is (1/6)^6. But after you open one and you discover it is science, the odds of opening six in a row is (1/6)^5, because you only need five science openings in a row to make six. The first one has already happened, so its probability of happening is now 100%.

There's a saying in statistics, which is paraphrased as "the odds of history happening is always 100%." History has already happened, so the odds of history happening any other way are zero.

It is also important to note that people often calculate the wrong probability numbers for reasons related to this. For example, when someone opens six science gems they ask what the odds of opening six science in a row are. But they are generally failing to account for the fact that the noteworthy thing here is six identical in a row, not six science in a row. Had they opened six cosmic, they would have been saying the same thing. The odds of pulling six identical in a row is (1/6)^5, not (1/6)^6, because the first one can literally be anything: it is the other five that have to match it.

If you don't account for this principle you get to nonsensical results. For example, if I open one science, one skill, one cosmic, another science, a tech, and another cosmic, what are the odds of that happening in precisely that way? It is the same calculation as calculating the odds of pulling six science in a row: (1/6)^6. In other words, the odds of that exact sequence happening are identical to the odds of opening six science in a row. The reason why this is counter-intuitive is because the first sequence isn't "interesting" so no one talks about it. This is sometimes known as significance bias in statistics, and is really the Fundamental Counting Principle in disguise.

Another thing people don't fully account for is the fact that when we calculate the odds of pulling six identical gems in a row as (1/6)^5, which is one in 7776, we sometimes jump to the conclusion that one in 7776 players will see this. But that's not entirely true, because individual players don't have only one shot at this. If a player opens seven crystals and the first one is cosmic and the next six are science, they will only remember the six in a row. They won't remember or care about the first one not being science. But while the odds of seeing six identical class openings in a row out of exactly six openings is one in 7776, the odds of seeing six science in a row out of seven openings is about one in 4241. As the number of openings increases the odds of seeing six science in a row also increases (it is about one in 3255 for eight openings). The more crystals you open, and for that matter the more crystals all players open, the more likely it is you'll see this sequence, and it doesn't take 7776x6 openings for the odds to become likely.

Kabam, please pin this comment at the top of the forum for all to read. Would save us so much time talking people off the ledge.

Menkent

It's the same birthdays trick. If you grab two people at random there's only a very low chance that they share a birthday, but if you get a large room full of people the odds become extremely high that somewhere in there are two people who share a birthday.