Gambler's Fallacy... new change nerfs GM n Cav crystals

HeroUniverse45 · September 2020

The odds don't stack... while you've introduced a small chance for a Nexus crystal, you've decreased the chance for a normal 5* pull. The 2 do NOT stack, they are independent of eachother. O.8 and 0.2 do not equal 1... your highest chance has been reduced to 0.8.

danielmath · September 2020

ummmm that's absurd

SandeepS · September 2020

Its 0.8% for 5*, the 0.2% is for nexus 5* so still 1% chance if getting the 5%... but lower odds of picking the champ you want from a selection

Iron_Patriot_is_lit · September 2020

The combined chance to get 5* or 5* nexus is the same chance to get a 5* champ as the GCs are now.

DNA3000 · September 2020

HeroUniverse45 said:
The odds don't stack... while you've introduced a small chance for a Nexus crystal, you've decreased the chance for a normal 5* pull. The 2 do NOT stack, they are independent of eachother. O.8 and 0.2 do not equal 1... your highest chance has been reduced to 0.8.

Uh, no.

SummonerNR · September 2020

Please DON'T bother merging these other 2 separate threads (that are trying to claim that the odds are somehow being reduced) into what is the more meaningful general discussion (with screencap of Mail) about the changes.

Wouldn’t the 5* Nexus give you a choice of 3 different 5*, so the odds between the non-nexus 5* and the Nexus 5* added together still adds up to what it was before (not less).

DNA3000 · September 2020

SummonerNR said:
Please DON'T bother merging these other 2 separate threads (that are trying to claim that the odds are somehow being reduced) into what is the more meaningful general discussion (with screencap of Mail) about the changes.

Wouldn’t the 5* Nexus give you a choice of 3 different 5*, so the odds between the non-nexus 5* and the Nexus 5* added together still adds up to what it was before (not less).

Best way to think about it is to imagine the game rolls dice and you have a 1% chance to get a 5*, and originally if that came up the game then rolled again to see which one (of the basic pool) you got. Now, if that 1% comes up, the game rolls 1 through 5. 1,2,3,4 and you get a basic 5* champ, and the game rolls for that. 5, and the game hands you a Nexus crystal (however the mechanics are to actually open that). So the odds of getting a 5* champ haven't changed at all: the moment that first 1% roll came up, you were "destined" to get a 5* champ. The only thing that changes is that sometimes it is a Nexus pull, and sometimes it is just a normal basic champ drop. But the odds are still 1% that you get a 5* champ of some kind.

HeroUniverse45 · September 2020

It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

danielmath · September 2020

HeroUniverse45 said:
It is so incredibly disconcerting so many ppl don't understand how this works... You're odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

Are you serious or just messing with us?

ItsDamien · September 2020

HeroUniverse45 said:
It is so incredibly disconcerting so many ppl don't understand how this works... You're odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

Just go read the new announcement at the top of the page. I don't need to say anything else.

Thicco_Mode · September 2020

HeroUniverse45 said:
It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

those are totally unrelated

HeroUniverse45 · September 2020

Go look at the in-game message... I double dog dare you.

Shamir51 · September 2020

Who doesn’t love a good dare.

If you can’t understand how the chances of pulling a 6* from a Cav haven’t changed, you should probably get back to school.

HeroUniverse45 · September 2020

This 100% contradicts the in-game message that was sent.

I should report you for harassment in re: to the personal attack.

Shamir51 · September 2020

You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

Shamir51 · September 2020

HeroUniverse45 said:
This 100% contradicts the in-game message that was sent.

I should report you for harassment in re: to the personal attack.

Whatever makes you happy.

HeroUniverse45 · September 2020

Shamir51 said:
You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

That is NOT what the in-game message says, how many times do I have to repeat myself

DNA3000 · September 2020

HeroUniverse45 said:
Go look at the in-game message... I double dog dare you.

It works the way I described. For, say, the Cavalier crystal the odds of pulling a 6* champion is 1%. 80% of the time it will be a basic drop, 20% of the time it will be a 6* Nexus, out of that 1%. Think of the 1% chance as rolling 1 through 10 out of 1000. The updated crystals will be configured so that rolling 1 or 2 out of 1000 generate a Nexus, while rolling 3 through 10 generate a 6* basic, whereas right now rolling 1 through 10 all generate a 6* basic crystal.

Those odds are being described as 1% chance for 6*, with 0.2% chance of Nexus.

But the chance to get a 6* at all is unaltered.

I actually asked for clarification on how the implementation would work, rather than guess. Kabam confirmed that how I'm describing it now is how it is intended to work in-game. In fact, I was asked to bold the above for emphasis.

Shamir51 · September 2020

HeroUniverse45 said:

Shamir51 said:
You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.
That is NOT what the in-game message says, how many times do I have to repeat myself

And yet the forum post is very clear on this 🤷‍♂️

danielmath · September 2020

It’s exactly what the in game message said, you just misunderstood

DNA3000 · September 2020

HeroUniverse45 said:
This 100% contradicts the in-game message that was sent.

I should report you for harassment in re: to the personal attack.

The in-game email message says:

For example, the Grandmaster Crystal currently has a 3% chance of giving a 5-Star Hero. This will be changed to a 2.4% chance of a 5-Star Champion, and a 0.6% chance of a 5-star Nexus Crystal. The Cavalier Crystal has a 1% chance of a 6-Star Hero - this will become 0.8% chance of a 6-star Champion, and a 0.2% chance of a 6-Star Nexus Crystal.

.

Since 1.0 - 0.2 = 0.8, this is exactly the same odds listed in the announcement.

GinjabredMonsta · September 2020

I'll agree, the in game mail had it seem like it was two separate crystal chances now while the post shows more what it actually is. I thought the same as the OP at first when I saw the in-game mail

GroundedWisdom · September 2020

Ok. I'll bite. Your chance at a normal 5* pull hasn't changed at all. It's still 1%. The Champs in that pool are the same ones in the Nexus. Only, with a Nexus, you have your choice of 3 outcomes, rather than one. Which is the highest outcome now. Unless you prefer 1 option and no choice.

flygamer · September 2020

well if you have a 99% chance to NOT pull a six star, then you must have a 1% of pulling one- right? It could be broken up 10 different ways within that 1% but is still the same.

Djin · September 2020

If the game rolls 1% chance to get 5* then there's 0.2% chance to get a Nexus 5*.

In GMC the game first decides between 3*/4*/5*
If 5* was decided, now there's a small chance that you don't get a 5* champ but 5* Nexus crystal instead.

shadow_lurker22 · September 2020

HeroUniverse45 said:
It is incredibly disconcerting how so many ppl don't understand how this works... Your odds are EITHER .08 or .02... they do NOT STACK. They are separate and unique events. You're not rolling for a regular 6* and a Nexus at the same time, you're rolling for one or the other. If you flip a coin 99 times and get all tails, your chance of heads on the 100th flip has NOT increased. It's still 50/50. It's referred to as the gambler's fallacy, look it up. Your brain is playing a trick of logic based upon a false premise.

A better crystal would have been a 6* that stays at 1% WHEREIN there's a small chance for a Nexus smh

I think you the one that doesn't get it so let's explain. Your conclusion is that there is less of a chance at a 6* where it was 1% before now it's 0.8%. The post states that you get either a 0.8% chance at a 6* or a 0.2% chance at a 6* nexus which still gurantees a 6*. Your claim is that both cannot stack and I don't understand why since the outcome of the 0.8% variable and the 0.2% varible is a 6* either way so essentially you still have a 1% chance at a 6* it's only a 0.2% chance to have a choice between 3 6*s. (I'm not entirely sure if we are talking about 5*s or 6*s since you jumped between the two but it is a minor detail to my overall point.)

Kade7175 · September 2020

Shamir51 said:
You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.

they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.

DNA3000 · September 2020

Kade7175 said:

Shamir51 said:
You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.
they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.

Please don't make stuff up. I don't even know what you mean by "used to roll 4 variables" so I have to guess. But it sounds like you think the computer used to roll four random numbers for the Cav crystal and now it is rolling five. That's *guaranteed* to be wrong. The odds of pulling 3* 4* 5* or 6* are not independent rolls, if they were then it is theoretically possible for both the 3* roll and the 5* roll to succeed, which is nonsensical. We never get two champs from one opening.

There are lots of different ways to implement reward tables like this, but a common one is through weights and pigeonhole partitions. Algorithmically, it looks like this. You construct a reward table with the reward entries, and a weight for each. 3* would have a weight of 50, 4* would have a weight of 38, 5* would have a weight of 11, and 6* would have a weight of 1. Then the computer would roll ONE number, and scale it to a pigeonhole. Which is to say, we add up the weights (which in this case is 100) and we then roll a random floating point number between zero and one. Then we compare the result to 50/100 (the first weight divided by the total weight). If it is less than or equal then that's what you get. If not we compare to (50+38)/100. If it is less than that, then that's your reward (it wasn't less than 50/100, so this means the random number is between 50/100 and 88/100). If not, we keep going, comparing to 99/100, and then finally 100/100 (which of course has to match if everything else fails).

In this case, the 6* weight of 1 is changed to 0.8, and a 6* Nexus weight was added with a weight of 0.2 The same ONE random float is rolled, and the same pigeonhole algorithm is run, and now you still have a one out of one hundred chance to get some kind of 6*, but now there's a chance for 6* basic and a chance for 6* Nexus.

Whatever you're thinking about "variables" you are just confusing yourself needlessly. Either you have a mental image of how the random reward table works that is wrong, or your notions of how probability work is wrong, or both.

Kpatrix · September 2020

Kade7175 said:

Shamir51 said:
You have a 1% chance to pull a 6* from a Cav crystal under the current formula.

When these changes come into effect, you will still have a 1% chance to pull a 6*. Only now 20% of your 1% is a chance at a 6* Nexus.

Honestly, it really isn’t that difficult to grasp.
they addedd a 5th variable to the algo so now you dont have a 1% chance you have a .8% chance per roll and an extreamly low .2% chance per roll. This is not in our favor at all and the fact you are out here on fire defending this is insane. They should never decrease the chance it should always go up especially because we have r3 6* and are on track for r4 and the 6* pool is soo bloated. The computer used to roll 4 variables at the higher rates. Now the computer runs 5 at lower rates that refresh every roll. If our luck stacked and every 100 we had that .8 and .2 then yes a 1% but this system is now .8 and .2 every roll. How many 4* uc have you pulled from a loyalty crystal? How many 5* punishers have you pulled? How many times have you hit that 225 unit pull? This is not good for the players. They need to bump the chance up to 3% to adjust for the 5th variable we are noa up against.

If the odds of pulling a 3*, 4*, or 5* in the cav crystal didn’t increase, then the odds of pulling a 6* could not have decreased.

There is still a 100% chance you get a champion from that crystal. It’s the same thing as the featured crystal odds; first the game determines the rarity it rewards, then it determines if it will award the “weighted” champ or pick randomly from the pool.

To put it in simpler terms, there’s a 99% chance you won’t get a 6*, but a 1% chance you will.

There is also a 20% chance that 6* you pull will be a nexus, and an 80% it won’t be.

Zenn_La · September 2020

Cavalier crystal changes we would be happy about:

Featured
3* 0%
4* 60%
5* 35%
6* 3%
6* nexus 2%

Standard Cav
3* 45%
4* 32%
5* 20%
6* 2%
6* nexus 1%

Kabams changes:
3* 50%
4* 38%
5* 11%
6* .8%
6* nexus .2%

Real life reality drop rates on standard & featured Cavs
3* 70%
4* 22%
5* 7.5%
6* .5%
6* nexus .000000000001%

Gambler's Fallacy... new change nerfs GM n Cav crystals

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