Are those featured 5* crystals rigged in favor of older champs? Data included.
ON12355
Member Posts: 144 ★★
Hello there,
so previous featured 5* crystal, I had a feeling like all those newer featured champs I'm actually buying it for somehow eluded me. So when current 5*Featured hero crystal (and look at the menu-it is one good looking crystal!) was released, just for fun, I collected data. And I know I may be just one small sample of the majority, but here is what I found out:
This game is now like 6 years old. Strictly statistically speaking, there is 24 champs in the crystal-if you aiming for specific champ, having 24 crystals (24 tries) is a good chance to get him. I had 26 featured 5* crystals.
As the pool of this crystal was set this time, chance to get champ released between 2018-2020 (newer champ) should be exactly 50:50 with chance to get champ released between 2015-2017 (older champ). And yet:
Not only the chances are nowhere near to what one would expect, it actually scales down almost perfectly with the years of release. Looks like you are much less probably to pull newer champs-those actual featured champs you buy this thing for in the fisrt place!
Last featured 5* crystal, it could have been just a feeling. But now, based on data I've collected, it is very hard for me to believe those crystals actually aren't rigged in favor of pulling older champs. I believe in math much more than in honesty and especially in this game. And this math seems to be rigged.
If that's the case, shame on you, Kabam... I guess I'm done with featured crystals, you know, fool me once and so on...
so previous featured 5* crystal, I had a feeling like all those newer featured champs I'm actually buying it for somehow eluded me. So when current 5*Featured hero crystal (and look at the menu-it is one good looking crystal!) was released, just for fun, I collected data. And I know I may be just one small sample of the majority, but here is what I found out:
This game is now like 6 years old. Strictly statistically speaking, there is 24 champs in the crystal-if you aiming for specific champ, having 24 crystals (24 tries) is a good chance to get him. I had 26 featured 5* crystals.
As the pool of this crystal was set this time, chance to get champ released between 2018-2020 (newer champ) should be exactly 50:50 with chance to get champ released between 2015-2017 (older champ). And yet:
Not only the chances are nowhere near to what one would expect, it actually scales down almost perfectly with the years of release. Looks like you are much less probably to pull newer champs-those actual featured champs you buy this thing for in the fisrt place!
Last featured 5* crystal, it could have been just a feeling. But now, based on data I've collected, it is very hard for me to believe those crystals actually aren't rigged in favor of pulling older champs. I believe in math much more than in honesty and especially in this game. And this math seems to be rigged.
If that's the case, shame on you, Kabam... I guess I'm done with featured crystals, you know, fool me once and so on...
14
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
You have got down on paper what I guess almost everyone who opens crystals in this game thinks and feels, me included.
BUT the problem is there is no way to prove it. 26 crystals is a lot but not even remotely enough to be called proof. For that we need to open at least 1000 featured and monitor every opening, then we can begin to call it proof.
Kabam always claim RNG... do I trust them?, no. But can I prove them wrong?, also no.
So at the end of the day its still up to me. Keep playing and live with that feeling or stop playing the game.
This is just my insight on the matter with small recommendation-don't buy them, they don't seem fair to me.
Thanks for your comment.
Year data aside, if the featured keep the same quality of champion you’ve got better odds of pulling a good champ than if you opt for basics.
In other words-if you have every single champ in the game, would you bother to buy featured crystal? ...and what is the better chance-already having a champ that is in the game for 5 years or the one that is in the game for 5 months?
But hey, all about this not being conclusive proof enough was already said, I'm aware of that. Thanks anyway!
You said you know how the sample size matters, meaning that you must also be aware, that in order to achieve "perfect rng pulls", you would have to open infinite amount of crystals. And also the more you open, the more accurate results you get.
This was not meant to be some earth-shaking revelation, just my two cents on the matter and my personal feeling about it I wanted to share. Although we will never be able to test the appropriate sample to have reliable results, having this (however small-scale) results over and over makes me think things you know...There is this "innocent until proven guilty" of course, but it's easy to claim innocent when you never actually have to show your cards and therefore can't be proven guilty, even if you were, and that's too shady business to be in for me, that's all I'm saying.
Even doing this small sample over and over will not tell you anything.
Innocent until proven guilty is a legal phrase, it does not work outside of the government criminal justice system.
I have opened 3 featureds.