I don't always save up a 100,000 battle chips...
MMCskippy
Member Posts: 356 ★★
But when I do...
I'm guaranteed to get skunked on units when I buy 10 Uncollected Battle Crystals.
Can you say "Waste of time"?
It's like the rifts... except different.
I'm guaranteed to get skunked on units when I buy 10 Uncollected Battle Crystals.
Can you say "Waste of time"?
It's like the rifts... except different.
10
Comments
Would think you’d want to compare the average of 500 against 500, but eh controversy>science on the YTs.
The odds are 1/5000, not sure how many I've opened but definitely not 5k yet.
The perception is that you get more units from regular stems from the fact that you pull units more frequently simply because you're opening more crystals. Do not confuse frequency of pulls with quantity of units though. When you open 5x more crystals with the regular, it will naturally feel like you're pulling more units. However, you're getting only 1/5th of what you would pull from a UC.
This turns into a similar debate between Stable vs Unstable rifts. Over the long run, they tend to average out to about the same payouts, but when you look at it in the micro-scale the Stable are the more consistent payouts. When the Unstable hits though, it's more than worth it.
For those of us who grind a lot of arenas, it doesn't matter which ones you open because you're beating the RNG with pure volume. The only other reason to pull the UC ones (and my reason for going for them) is the inclusion of Punisher in the drop rates. Both my 3* and 4* Punishers are max sig and I'd love to dupe my 5* which is only found in the UC crystals.
For those who only open a few at in-frequent intervals, the regular ones tend to be the safer option.
Note: it is, of course, five times the try for one fifth the reward in actuality.
Of those 91, 14 were pulls that rewarded no units. I'm not sure if that's tracking with the drop rates or not, but I don't want to figure it out until my sample size gets bigger.
I'm going to switch back to regular and keep taking pictures and eventually create a histogram that tracks the # (out of 10) of crystals that dropped units... There are two 120 unit pulls (8 of 10 of the pack dropped units) in my sample now. There are a bunch of 15 and 30 unit pictures. I just want to see what the distribution really ends up being.
For the record: There are ZERO, 10 out of 10 credit drop pulls in my small collection (150 units).
With the UC variety, me hitting credits has been a rarity. I had a weird situation where I found myself with 50k of chips and then just thought: I'll just save up for a 10 pack of UC's... Maybe I'll get 1 or 2 of the 10 pack to drop units?
Who has the time to get a decent sample size of UC's? That's a lot of arena grinding!
The fact that the study of randomness and random number generators is a science doesn't mean it gets treated properly on the forums. It tends not to.
I have been accumulating BCs for a while now, waiting to see if an SA appears. I always open uncollected crystals, so at some point there could be a way to compare the two with large numbers. But of course someone who wants to can also look for streamed arena crystal openings and compare those. They have to have been originally streamed or uploaded by someone that consistently uploads without cherry picking so the data can't be influenced by upload-bias.
To further complicate the drop rate discussion is the fact that there are two types of gold and two types of units drops. Overall, there is a 15% chance to drop units and an 85% chance for gold (ignoring the small chances for Punisher or energy refills). Within those chances to drop units and gold, you can pull either the base amount or an even rarer large amount.
For example, in the UC crystals can drop 75 units as the base or a rare pull of 225 units. Similarly, the regular crystals drop 15 or 45. So when you open 10 regular crystals and see 90 units, that could mean you pulled units from either 2 (2x rare units), 4 (1x rare + 3x base) or 6 (6x base)crystals depending on the rarity of the unit drops for success rate between 20 and 60%.
Figuring out how many crystals dropped gold or units and which were base or rare drops makes determining your actual success rate very difficult. When opening stacks of UC crystals, it's common to see 225 units but until I look at how much gold I got I don't know if I got units from 3 crystals or from only 1.
Now... if someone could tell me the odds of me pulling 40% XP boosts out of the last 3 greater solo crystals AND the last 3 lesser solo crystals I can at least feel special about such a crappy event. The last 6 solo crystals I’ve opened have been 40% XP boosts. I guess that’s just what the solo crystals drop now!
So it basically comes down to how many battlechips you have. The more you have, the higher the chance you get units in the uncollected and the increased chance of smaller units starts to matter less and less.
So with 100k battlechips you might not get a single unit drop in uncollected because you only have 10 chances. But you can open 50 regulars. You are much more likely to get atleast SOME units.
But if you only open per 100k every single time. Over a year it will not matter at all between uncollected and normal. In theory, because it is still RNG.