Arena battle chip crystal change?
N0toriousRED53
Member Posts: 46 ★
Was wondering if other people have been getting less units in their battle chip crystals. I usually get the uncollected ones, out of 100k chips I’d get around 800-900 units.. this month has been 225 units out of 200k chips.
Anyone seeing this also? And does getting cavalier change the algorithm?
Anyone seeing this also? And does getting cavalier change the algorithm?
14
Comments
And no being cavalier won’t matter for your arena crystals.
Also being Uncollected/Cavalier/TB doesn't change the drop rates.
A ton of analysis has been done on the drop rates. The accepted rule for battlechips is the average per million is 2k units.
Regular battlechips have a better chance of achieving the average of 2k units, however the uncollected ones offer increased variability. You can get way above the average (as you seem to have done) however you can also get way below the average also.
Search through some of @DNA3000 threads, he’s done some comprehensive analysis.
To put this into perspective, 100k chips is 10 UC crystals. There are two unit drops possible for UC arena crystals: 225 units and 75 units. The 75 unit drop is more common. But let's say someone were to get those at a 50/50 even split. It would then take six drops to equal 900 units - three each. So to get 900 units out of 10 crystals you'd have to see six out of ten crystals be units. But let's say you never get the lower drop and only get the higher drop. It would then take four unit drops to reach 900 units. The stated drop rate for units in those crystals is 15% (which testing has confirmed is more or less accurate). Someone getting 900 units out of ten crystals on average would have to either be consistently averaging twice the unit drop rate that is both stated and measured and only getting the best unit drops possible, or even more than twice the drop rate assuming they get a more normal spread of unit drops.
I now have 1800 crystals recorded. In that data, I believe there's only a single stretch of ten consecutive crystals that equals or exceeds 900 units.
That's what 900 units in ten crystals looks like in a sea of openings (technically, it is 1050 units).
450 units is significantly below the average for 70 UC arena crystals. The average would be closer to ~1300 or so. You probably got a bad luck opening with the UCs, then got a good luck opening with the normals, then stopped keeping close tabs on the normals. Even 60, much less 120, is so far above the average that if you think you're getting that on average, you should start recording your openings.
Not impossible, just lucky.
With the UC crystals, you're more likely to see somewhat more extreme distributions in one direction of the other in the smaller number of crystals, but again, the more crystals you open, the more it will approach the expected distribution.
In most (all?) cases, we're not popping enough crystals in a single opening to overcome the short term variance. That's why long term data collection like DNA's is valuable. I have no clue how many crystals it would actually take, but if we were somehow able to collect data for every single opening by every single summoner over a significant period of time (like 6 months or a year,) we'll probably see something pretty close to the programmed drop rates. Someone with an actual background in probability and statistics would be able to give a better answer on how many crystals it would actually take.
Got this today from basic
This is the level of commitment kabam expects from each of us...lol
Ssssssick