Can the RNG be that bad?

N0toriousRED53N0toriousRED53 Member Posts: 46 ★
in General Discussion
I've been keeping track of my battle chip uncollected crystals for units. In about 2 months these are my openings which has changed significantly from around 900ish units per 100k.
I reset my timer when I get units.
150k - 0 units
100k - 75 units
40k - 225 units
160k - 0 units

Anyone else notice this?

Comments

  • SquirrelguySquirrelguy Member Posts: 2,654 ★★★★★
    Sometimes it’s great, sometimes it’s terrible. You could literally never pull units from arena crystals. It’s possible. (Not saying Iran good, but it’s possible)
  • GiuliameijGiuliameij Member Posts: 1,849 ★★★★
    If you are only opening arena crystals in these low quantities. You are much better of buying regular crystals. Much more change of getting atleast some units. Over a whole year it should not matter at all between the two. But it feels a lot better to get atleast 100 units per 100k (average is 150 per 100k) than to not get anything from 160k.
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 13,169 Guardian
    Already been established with @DNA3000 commenting back in your other post from Feb-Mar on your same issue that if you indeed got 900 Units from 100k that would have been really lucky, and no way would have been your average over a longer period of time.

    Still claiming 900k is your usual ?

    So you got lucky one time, you can’t be claiming that something must be wrong if you don’t continue to get that on a regular basis.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,627 ★★★★★
    It's the same as it's always been. They come and go.
  • N0toriousRED53N0toriousRED53 Member Posts: 46 ★
    @SummonerNR that was my average over about 4-5 months per 100k and then it dropped when I made it to cavalier. It was just a weird coincidence that seemed to be the turning point.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,841 Guardian
    N0toriousRED53 said:

    I've been keeping track of my battle chip uncollected crystals for units. In about 2 months these are my openings which has changed significantly from around 900ish units per 100k.
    I reset my timer when I get units.
    150k - 0 units
    100k - 75 units
    40k - 225 units
    160k - 0 units

    Anyone else notice this?

    My worst run of 45 crystals is actually only 75 units, and I believe my best run of 45 crystals is 1950 (based on visual inspection). If you're only looking at 45 crystals at a time, your results could be anywhere within a range that wide or wider.

    I believe you're just taking note of the most obviously extreme results and not recording or conveying the others, which is a problem that plagues a lot of crystal anecdotes. That's why back when I used to analyze mass crystal openings I would only analyze the ones streamed live and recorded, not the ones prerecorded. Because the former cannot be skewed, but the latter you have to assume has been curated most of the time.
  • N0toriousRED53N0toriousRED53 Member Posts: 46 ★
    @DNA3000 besides opening the 1st 150k, I would normally open 2 at a time so 20k, and just add to the total until getting units. Then move onto the next group, that's why it was different quantities lol
    1st- 150k at once, 0 units
    then 20k(5x) 5th opening had the 75.
    then 20k(2x) 2nd had 225.
    then 20k(8x)

    I don't stream anything so I was keeping track in my own weird way haha
    I was getting a crazy amount of units on a regular basis for 4-5 months so I figured it was normal. only kept track the last 200k before the drop off.
  • Etm34Etm34 Member Posts: 1,667 ★★★★★
    If 900 units per 100k chips was the norm I’d be pulling in almost 3k units per week. I average roughly 250 units per 100k
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,841 Guardian
    N0toriousRED53 said:

    @DNA3000 besides opening the 1st 150k, I would normally open 2 at a time so 20k, and just add to the total until getting units. Then move onto the next group, that's why it was different quantities lol
    1st- 150k at once, 0 units
    then 20k(5x) 5th opening had the 75.
    then 20k(2x) 2nd had 225.
    then 20k(8x)

    I don't stream anything so I was keeping track in my own weird way haha
    I was getting a crazy amount of units on a regular basis for 4-5 months so I figured it was normal. only kept track the last 200k before the drop off.

    You say that the above is about two months of crystals. That means you're averaging something like 20-25 UC arena crystals a month, which makes 5 months of data about one hundred UC crystals. There's a huge amount of variability in small batches of 100 crystals, and yes, for crystals of this kind, one hundred crystals is a relatively small batch. This kind of variability is normal.
  • king_ov_scrubsking_ov_scrubs Member Posts: 396 ★★★
    i’ve opened 3 uncollected arena crystals and got 450 units. the next time i opened 17 and got 75 units. the RNG for those crystals are insane
  • ReferenceReference Member Posts: 2,914 ★★★★★
    edited March 2021
    N0toriousRED53 said:

    I've been keeping track of my battle chip uncollected crystals for units. In about 2 months these are my openings which has changed significantly from around 900ish units per 100k.
    I reset my timer when I get units.
    150k - 0 units
    100k - 75 units
    40k - 225 units
    160k - 0 units

    Anyone else notice this?

    I noticed the drop too but I didn’t keep track with excel or any system. I switch to non-UC BC and units grow seems better.
    I dunno if they alter any drop rate since this is a black box but the drop rate for units from UC BC has been dropped for me since the launch of piggy bank. Please don’t ask me to provide empirical evidence or correlation coefficient. I’m tired of reading essay and it is just a sharing of my subjective feeling.
  • N0toriousRED53N0toriousRED53 Member Posts: 46 ★
    @DNA3000 I didn't keep track of how long it took to get 100k chippies the last 200k of getting 900ish units each.
    Now that I think about when I had gotten cav, it was mid last month so the posted chips (450k) has been around a month, give or take 10k if I had some stored.
    Was just wondering if other people had noticed a drop but I guess I just had crazy luck for awhile.
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