2.5 million bchips opened ( screenshot) . How many units and gold i got ? Did i pull 6* Punisher ?

Today i opened a mix of all Arena crystals since i wanted to check which one benefits the most.

I took a screenshot and started with this .

After the opening ?

Stash looks like this . So earned close to 4700 units , 6 million gold . Average is 1800 - 2k units in 1 mil bchips . Happy that my opening was upto the drop rates snd not below that . Last but not the last .

Couldn't pull the 6* . But Hey a 5* one is still cool 😃

If you ask me , UC arena crystals are the best way to go for units if you have atleast 1 mil bchips . TB ones are damn risky so i wouldn't recommend. Regular arena ones if you have less than 1 million.

Time to save again and wait for next gold boost in December 😁

Comments

The_Sentry06

I would love to have one-fourth of your units. I'm broke AF.

Rohit_316

I would love to have one-fourth of your units. I'm broke AF.

Lol . Arena is your best friend mate.

The_Sentry06

I would love to have one-fourth of your units. I'm broke AF.
Lol . Arena is your best friend mate.

unknown

This content has been removed.

pseudosane

The advice is pretty wrong.
I will be opening mine at the end of this week : 7million bcs.
As the levels of arena crystals increase, the thing that changes is the variance.
Normal arena crystals have the highest chance of giving you the average rewards.
UC has higher variance of either getting good or bad reards.
TB has the highest chance of that.
So if you wish to get perfectly average rewards, normal is the way to go (which is what i will do).

Rohit_316

Not too bad. I used same amount and got 5k units

Nice . My mate got 7k units out of 3 mil bchips . All RNG.

Malreck04

The advice is pretty wrong.
I will be opening mine at the end of this week : 7million bcs.
As the levels of arena crystals increase, the thing that changes is the variance.
Normal arena crystals have the highest chance of giving you the average rewards.
UC has higher variance of either getting good or bad reards.
TB has the highest chance of that.
So if you wish to get perfectly average rewards, normal is the way to go (which is what i will do).

Another method of interpretation : bigger sample size results in an outcome closer to the centre of the bell curve.

So ideally it is better to open normals because you get more chances at good chances, if that makes any sense

Adevati

Here’s math in poor format.

Expected value of units per success:

Reg: 25
UC: 125
TB: 625

This represents ~33% chance at the higher units and ~67% chance at the lower units. Based on a lot of different analyses on crystal payouts, this appears to be the correct odds.

Now, to remove RNG, we assume >90% probability scenarios and compare those.

At 1m chips:

Reg: 65 (1625 units)
UC: 11 (1375 units)
TB: 1 (625 units) {This is where lower samples shows the downfall. 1 success is >96% and 2 successes is >80%. So we have to choose 1}

At 2m chips:

Reg: 136 (3400)
UC: 24 (3000)
TB: 4 (2500)

At 5m chips:

Reg: 352 (8800)
UC: 65 (8125)
TB: 11 (6875)

At 10m chips:

Reg: 498 (12450)
UC: 93 (11625)
TB: 16 (10000)

Comparing TB to Reg payouts:

1m: 38% of Reg
2m: 73%
5m: 78%
7m: 80%

Notice how as samples increase payout becomes closer?

Let’s compare UC to Reg:

1m: 85%
2m: 88%
5m: 92%
7m: 94%
10m: 96%
20m: 97%

Too lazy to do the math on when UC to Reg is 99.9%.

But this explains the concept that as samples increase, the probability moves from experimental probability to theoretical probability.

Okay, but what about at >50% probability. Well, that’s easy, it’s all equal at every amount of chips above 1m.

What about the opposite end, >10%. Let’s throw RNG back in and assume you are lucky:

At 1m:

Reg: 85 (2125)
UC: 20 (2500)
TB: 5 (3125)

At 5m:

Reg: 398 (9950)
UC: 85 (10625)
TB: 20 (12500)

Oh, the inverse of >90% probability. As samples increase Regular crystals approach payout of UC/TB crystals.

Since over time you approach theoretical probability, the vast majority of people are better off sticking with Regular crystals. Even if you get lucky with the UC/TB crystals and get more units, you’ll still eventually open more crystals and even out. If you have been opening UC/TB and got lucky, now is the time to switch back to regular.

The only scenario where I can see people opening UC/TB crystals is if they don’t do arena often and want to roll the dice for higher payouts. Or, they are just lazy and don’t want to deal with opening more crystals.

SirGamesBond

I had no unit expectation out of TbAC, I didn't even care if I got any units or not...But it was a nice surprise.