the dishonest spinner

MenkentMenkent Posts: 849 ★★★
We've known since the earliest days of the game that the reel when you spin out crystals over-represented high value results relative to their actual drop rates, but we still see people (who should know better) talking about how they "just missed" something. I decided to gather some data so the hard-core spinners could know exactly how skewed the spinner is and better understand the psychological pressure kabam is putting on them to buy just... one... more. So I spun out 101 PHCs and made a spreadsheet.

This could have been better if I'd recorded video so I could look at the last few spots in the reel, because it felt like there was a high percentage of 4* rollovers just before the final three locked in. But there's only so much effort I'm willing to put into this. Just pop them.

Long story short, the left champ in the final three will ALWAYS be a 2*. The right champ is almost ten times more likely to show a 4* than you are to actually get a 4* based on published drop rates and including the nexus. I'm not going to repeat this for grandmaster or cav crystals, but I think it's fair to assume the trend would hold.


Comments

  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 28,390 ★★★★★
    They've been upfront for as long as I can remember that the reel is cosmetic. Not a reflection of the results. It's a visual effect, a snapshot of some of the possibilities.
    TL:DR - The reel don't mean ####. They told us that.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 28,390 ★★★★★
    Menkent said:

    Reference said:

    Long time ago Mods already said that those 6* champs showing between your 3* end result is for “entertainment” purpose. Your spin result has been determined at the time you start spinning.

    Treat it as psychological distraction or temptation, just want you to open more crystals, and then spend money…..

    Yes, I just wanted people to see that the "show" was indeed skewed to make desired results look more possible.
    No, it's not. It's not even meant to be an accurate representation of the RNG.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 28,390 ★★★★★
    Menkent said:


    No, it's not. It's not even meant to be an accurate representation of the RNG.

    As usual, you are completely wrong. The spinner is clearly designed to look like a real-world slot machine with your possible rewards rolling by.

    Edit: the fact that modern electronic slot machines also likely skew the display to show higher value results more often would support my interpretation more than not. But this post was for informational purposes rather than to call out kabam, who have already effectively admitted the results. Data for data's sake.
    If that's your interpretation, then there's no reasoning with you. It is NOT a reflection of the RNG. There wouldn't be enough Champs in the spin to accurately reflect that. It's a mix of possibilities. You're literally saying the same thing I am, with the caveat that it's skewed to entice people. That is conjecture because all you have is the data from spins, and their own admittance that the spin means nothing.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 28,390 ★★★★★

    Menkent said:


    No, it's not. It's not even meant to be an accurate representation of the RNG.

    As usual, you are completely wrong. The spinner is clearly designed to look like a real-world slot machine with your possible rewards rolling by.

    Edit: the fact that modern electronic slot machines also likely skew the display to show higher value results more often would support my interpretation more than not. But this post was for informational purposes rather than to call out kabam, who have already effectively admitted the results. Data for data's sake.
    If that's your interpretation, then there's no reasoning with you. It is NOT a reflection of the RNG. There wouldn't be enough Champs in the spin to accurately reflect that. It's a mix of possibilities. You're literally saying the same thing I am, with the caveat that it's skewed to entice people. That is conjecture because all you have is the data from spins, and their own admittance that the spin means nothing.
    (almost) everyone knows that the reel is just a visual effect. The reel could have been made to be just a visual effect which mirrored the actual drop rates. If it were just a "mix of possibilities" there is no reason why higher prize items would be over represented. If you spin a Cav crystal you see many whole groups of 6*s go by before it lands on the 3*. Personally I have no problem with them beefing up the reel to encourage people to buy them, but if you think that that's not what they are doing you're crazy.
    It can't actually. You're trying to display odds that are in some cases less than whole numbers. How do you display that in a 30 second (or however long) reel? You don't. You add a range of all prizes and let them serve as a visual effect, and the actual outcome lands when it's time.
  • KerneasKerneas Posts: 2,522 ★★★★★
    The mods have never stated anything else, but I am really excited to actually see it on paper. The numbers are interesting, definitely much more specific than whatever the mods said about this
This discussion has been closed.