What is this Madness ๐Ÿ˜‚

HoitadoHoitado Member Posts: 3,707 โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…
Today Iโ€™ve opened 3 Crystals.

A 3* Crystal
A PHC
And a Grandmaster Crystal

From each and every one of those crystals Iโ€™ve gotten a 3* Diablo.

Iโ€™m not complaining because the Iso actually adds up but I think itโ€™s pretty funny how from 3 different crystals I manage to pull the same champion and same star rating.

Comments

  • DiablordDiablord Member Posts: 596 โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…
    Funny thing i got something similar.
    Opened 4* crystal and got deadpool x force, opened 5* and got deadpool x force and on the same day opened my 1st ever 6* crystal and got a deadpool x foce
  • Bugmat78Bugmat78 Member Posts: 2,390 โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…
    Hoitado said:

    Today Iโ€™ve opened 3 Crystals.

    A 3* Crystal
    A PHC
    And a Grandmaster Crystal

    From each and every one of those crystals Iโ€™ve gotten a 3* Diablo.

    Iโ€™m not complaining because the Iso actually adds up but I think itโ€™s pretty funny how from 3 different crystals I manage to pull the same champion and same star rating.

    Not uncommon I've found from myown personal experience. This happens to me at least 2-3 times a month when opening different crystals at the same time or close to each other (I got Dr. Strange twice in a row from a featured and basic 6* crystal for example, and 3* wolverine 3 times in the same minute from different crystals and the same with magneto, hulk etc on other occasions).

    We don't know what variables kabam's RNG uses to generate the numbers it picks but it's also funny that the same seems to happen occasionally when alliance members tend to open the same kinds of crystals at the same time.

    I've seen fellow alliance mates get the same pulls from the same types of crystals not infrequently including myself eg two 6* Ghost opening after myself and a member did an incursions run together and opened our 6* right after from the incursion shards within a minute of each other.

    The RNG this game uses is clearly not the best at mimicking true randomness.

    And before anyone disputes that, code is code and most RNGs are not truly random but pseudo-random.
  • Colonaut123Colonaut123 Member Posts: 3,091 โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…
    I managed to open 2 3* Magneto from 2 GMC.
  • LpooLpoo Member Posts: 2,215 โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…
    RNG is real, but I feel like everyone has a story like this. My 4th, 5th, and 6th 6* were korg
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Member Posts: 9,264 โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…
    Bugmat78 said:

    Hoitado said:

    Today Iโ€™ve opened 3 Crystals.

    A 3* Crystal
    A PHC
    And a Grandmaster Crystal

    From each and every one of those crystals Iโ€™ve gotten a 3* Diablo.

    Iโ€™m not complaining because the Iso actually adds up but I think itโ€™s pretty funny how from 3 different crystals I manage to pull the same champion and same star rating.



    We don't know what variables kabam's RNG uses to generate the numbers it picks but it's also funny that the same seems to happen occasionally when alliance members tend to open the same kinds of crystals at the same time.

    I've seen fellow alliance mates get the same pulls from the same types of crystals not infrequently including myself eg two 6* Ghost opening after myself and a member did an incursions run together and opened our 6* right after from the incursion shards within a minute of each other.

    The RNG this game uses is clearly not the best at mimicking true randomness.

    And before anyone disputes that, code is code and most RNGs are not truly random but pseudo-random.
    You're falling a little bit foul of human nature to look for patterns. Compare these two crystal openings from 3 3* crystals. 3 Diablos in one, and one yellowjacket, one superior iron man and one groot. Which one is more unlikely? They actually have the exact same odds. Neither is more likely than the other. The odds of getting diablo, diablo and diablo, is the same as getting specifically YJ, Sup. and groot. You just don't care when you pull the second 3 because there's no pattern.

    It's not notable to you, so when you see doubles or triples of the same champion it stands out to you much more. Now when you compare the odds of pulling the same champion vs pulling different champions, then it's more likely to pull different champions. That's why it's noteworthy, but again, it's only noteworthy because there's a pattern.

    With your ghost example, would you have noticed if you got 3 different champions? No, because you wouldn't care. This is confirmation bias, when you only notice or accept something because it confirms your belief. The 50 other times you open two crystals and get different champions, you don't care, and you don't think wow that was random. But the one time you pull two Iron Men, your brain snaps into gear and you think there's a pattern.
  • Bugmat78Bugmat78 Member Posts: 2,390 โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…โ˜…

    Bugmat78 said:

    Hoitado said:

    Today Iโ€™ve opened 3 Crystals.

    A 3* Crystal
    A PHC
    And a Grandmaster Crystal

    From each and every one of those crystals Iโ€™ve gotten a 3* Diablo.

    Iโ€™m not complaining because the Iso actually adds up but I think itโ€™s pretty funny how from 3 different crystals I manage to pull the same champion and same star rating.



    We don't know what variables kabam's RNG uses to generate the numbers it picks but it's also funny that the same seems to happen occasionally when alliance members tend to open the same kinds of crystals at the same time.

    I've seen fellow alliance mates get the same pulls from the same types of crystals not infrequently including myself eg two 6* Ghost opening after myself and a member did an incursions run together and opened our 6* right after from the incursion shards within a minute of each other.

    The RNG this game uses is clearly not the best at mimicking true randomness.

    And before anyone disputes that, code is code and most RNGs are not truly random but pseudo-random.
    You're falling a little bit foul of human nature to look for patterns. Compare these two crystal openings from 3 3* crystals. 3 Diablos in one, and one yellowjacket, one superior iron man and one groot. Which one is more unlikely? They actually have the exact same odds. Neither is more likely than the other. The odds of getting diablo, diablo and diablo, is the same as getting specifically YJ, Sup. and groot. You just don't care when you pull the second 3 because there's no pattern.

    It's not notable to you, so when you see doubles or triples of the same champion it stands out to you much more. Now when you compare the odds of pulling the same champion vs pulling different champions, then it's more likely to pull different champions. That's why it's noteworthy, but again, it's only noteworthy because there's a pattern.

    With your ghost example, would you have noticed if you got 3 different champions? No, because you wouldn't care. This is confirmation bias, when you only notice or accept something because it confirms your belief. The 50 other times you open two crystals and get different champions, you don't care, and you don't think wow that was random. But the one time you pull two Iron Men, your brain snaps into gear and you think there's a pattern.
    Mt brain snaps a lot around here. I'd say you are displaying as much confirmation bias as you believe I am with your response.

    The point is not that the RNG is rigged, but that the RNG isn't real, and given MCOC is a game and isn't a piece of security software used for banking or some such, you wouldn't expect the RNG to be of the highest quality.

    So of course there will be patterns - it is software in a mobile game (full of bugs) and It's pseudo-random.

    Most people who are cavalier or throne breaker have opened enough crystals over years of playing to note the subtle pattern underlying the RNG. It doesn't matter if when it happens is when I pay attention - what matters is how often that happens.

    As stated here: https://phys.org/news/2016-09-random-randomness.html

    But it turns out some โ€“ even most โ€“ computer-generated "random" numbers aren't actually random. They can follow subtle patterns that can be observed over long periods of time, or over many instances of generating random numbers. For example, a simple random number generator could be built by timing the intervals between a user's keystrokes. But the results would not really be random, because there are correlations and patterns in these timings, especially when looking at a large number of them.



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