How much more gold are in arena crystals (analysis of gold boost)
DNA3000
Member, Guardian Guardian › Posts: 19,846 Guardian
Short answer: Arena crystals now drop 30% more gold than originally. Probably slightly more than that.
Long answer:
Arena crystals originally dropped one of three values for gold when they dropped gold. For normal crystals, this was 3k, 5k, and 10k. For UC crystals it was 15k, 25k, and 50k. For TB crystals, it was 80k, 125k, and 250k. As of when I write this, the arena crystals are now dropping 3500/7k/14k for normal, 17.5k/35k/70k for UC, and 90/180/360 for TB. These values are not a straight +30% boost like the Gold crystals were supposedly boosted to. In some cases the boost is lower and in some cases significantly higher. So what's the actual average return?
To answer this question, we need to know the actual relative drop rates for the different gold drops, and those have never been published. However, I can make a reasonable guestimate. I've been recording arena crystal openings for a couple years now (as in: each and every individual crystal) and I have enough data to make an estimate. Rounded to whole numbers, the smallest gold drop represents 49% of all drops, the medium drop represents 21% of all drops, and the large drop represents 14% of all drops. Given my data size, that's probably accurate to about 0.5 percentage points. So I'm going to assume that the relative drop rates for those gold drops is about 7:3:2. From that we can calculate the average amount of gold per gold drop for the crystals originally, and now.
The weighted average for standard arena crystals was 4.7k (that's per gold drop, not per crystal). For UC it was 23.3k. For TB it was 119.6k. For the current crystals the standard arena weighted average is 6.1k, for UC it is 30.6k, and for TB it is 157.5k. This means the average gold per crystal increased by 31% for the normal and UC crystals, and by 32% for the TB crystals (these numbers are rounded to nearest whole number, because these calculations don't have more precision than that).
So the arena crystals are in fact dropping more than 30% more gold. 31% - 32% more depending on the crystal. Within the margin for error, basically 30% more.
Incidentally, the calculations also suggest that the TB crystal drops more than 5x more gold than the UC crystal: about 3% more gold than what five UC crystals would drop on average. However, it is worth noting that the TB crystal *definitely* does not have the same precise drop odds as the other two crystals, in that gold itself drops very slightly less often (83.98% vs 83.45%). If we assume identical ratios and account for this the difference drops to 2%, and both the 3% calculation and the 2% calculation are within the margin for error of the estimates for the actual drop ratios.
It is possible TB crystals drop exactly 5x more gold than the UC crystals (and cost 5x more) but it is also possible they drop a very tiny fraction more. The reason for this is due to the fact that while UC crystals could just be scaled up from standard crystals, TB crystals couldn't because that would scale the UC 5 energy drop to 25 energy which was unwieldy. So the drop was increased to only 10 energy and the odds increased from 0.35% to 0.88% (this is part of the published odds for the crystals, so this is known exactly). This comes at the cost of reducing the chance for gold to drop, which then required the devs to tweak the gold drops to compensate (TB gold drops are not just 5x higher than UC drops: the low drop is slightly higher). Changing the numbers and making the reasonable whole numbers probably shifted the average by a tiny amount. The difference is likely small enough that few players would notice without keeping long term records.
Bottom line: the arena crystals all seem to now be dropping 30% more gold - actually very slightly more than that in my calculations, but at least that. My calculations do have some margin for error, mostly coming from my estimates for the relative drop rates of the different drop types, but that margin is low enough for these calculations to be reasonable.
Long answer:
Arena crystals originally dropped one of three values for gold when they dropped gold. For normal crystals, this was 3k, 5k, and 10k. For UC crystals it was 15k, 25k, and 50k. For TB crystals, it was 80k, 125k, and 250k. As of when I write this, the arena crystals are now dropping 3500/7k/14k for normal, 17.5k/35k/70k for UC, and 90/180/360 for TB. These values are not a straight +30% boost like the Gold crystals were supposedly boosted to. In some cases the boost is lower and in some cases significantly higher. So what's the actual average return?
To answer this question, we need to know the actual relative drop rates for the different gold drops, and those have never been published. However, I can make a reasonable guestimate. I've been recording arena crystal openings for a couple years now (as in: each and every individual crystal) and I have enough data to make an estimate. Rounded to whole numbers, the smallest gold drop represents 49% of all drops, the medium drop represents 21% of all drops, and the large drop represents 14% of all drops. Given my data size, that's probably accurate to about 0.5 percentage points. So I'm going to assume that the relative drop rates for those gold drops is about 7:3:2. From that we can calculate the average amount of gold per gold drop for the crystals originally, and now.
The weighted average for standard arena crystals was 4.7k (that's per gold drop, not per crystal). For UC it was 23.3k. For TB it was 119.6k. For the current crystals the standard arena weighted average is 6.1k, for UC it is 30.6k, and for TB it is 157.5k. This means the average gold per crystal increased by 31% for the normal and UC crystals, and by 32% for the TB crystals (these numbers are rounded to nearest whole number, because these calculations don't have more precision than that).
So the arena crystals are in fact dropping more than 30% more gold. 31% - 32% more depending on the crystal. Within the margin for error, basically 30% more.
Incidentally, the calculations also suggest that the TB crystal drops more than 5x more gold than the UC crystal: about 3% more gold than what five UC crystals would drop on average. However, it is worth noting that the TB crystal *definitely* does not have the same precise drop odds as the other two crystals, in that gold itself drops very slightly less often (83.98% vs 83.45%). If we assume identical ratios and account for this the difference drops to 2%, and both the 3% calculation and the 2% calculation are within the margin for error of the estimates for the actual drop ratios.
It is possible TB crystals drop exactly 5x more gold than the UC crystals (and cost 5x more) but it is also possible they drop a very tiny fraction more. The reason for this is due to the fact that while UC crystals could just be scaled up from standard crystals, TB crystals couldn't because that would scale the UC 5 energy drop to 25 energy which was unwieldy. So the drop was increased to only 10 energy and the odds increased from 0.35% to 0.88% (this is part of the published odds for the crystals, so this is known exactly). This comes at the cost of reducing the chance for gold to drop, which then required the devs to tweak the gold drops to compensate (TB gold drops are not just 5x higher than UC drops: the low drop is slightly higher). Changing the numbers and making the reasonable whole numbers probably shifted the average by a tiny amount. The difference is likely small enough that few players would notice without keeping long term records.
Bottom line: the arena crystals all seem to now be dropping 30% more gold - actually very slightly more than that in my calculations, but at least that. My calculations do have some margin for error, mostly coming from my estimates for the relative drop rates of the different drop types, but that margin is low enough for these calculations to be reasonable.
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Comments
But in the first, the drop rates if higher gold drops were increased and the lesser ones decreased while keeping unit drop rates same
You get what they give you.