You think kabam were so nice to give cav crystals for 2000 shards?? Lol
LordPSN
Member Posts: 799 ★★★★
See the images..
The % of getting 6star champs are now greatly reduced!
4000 shards
2000 shards
The % of getting 6star champs are now greatly reduced!
4000 shards
2000 shards
68
Comments
But yeah, you keep looking at the good things.
Silver lining and all! 🤣🤣
it's better it's 4.5% against 5.91%
You roll 3% once, it becomes 3/100 to get a six star. You roll 3% twice and you end up with a few different paths.
If didn't pull a six star from either crystal, (97/100)(97/100) would be equal to around 9,409/10000. We can shorten this down to 94.09% of you not getting a six star from either crystal.
If you pulled a six star from the first one but not the second one, (3/100)(97/100) would be equal to around 291/10000. You can shorten this down to 2.91%.
If you didn't pull a six star from the first but did on the second, (97/100)(3/100). Once again you would end up with 2.91%.
Now if you're the lucky **** that managed to get six stars in both crystals in a row,(3/100)(3/100) nets you 9/10000 odds. This is roughly equal to 0.09%.
Now if you add the events that involve you getting six stars. You have a 5.91% chance of pulling at least one 6* from two crystals.
Assuming that the shard spread did not decrease from say... last months events.
You have 1 4.5% chance against 1 5.91% chance once you even it out. But that's only if the shard spread didn't change.
If anyone has any idea how many crystals you could get without using the top ups in the stores from last month and this month, then we can make a reliable statement. But right now as I see it, these crystals are technically better.
As for the drop rates, they were always altering between these two. Don't ask me why, I don't understand either but this is what we always had.
Last month I had 60% chance to pull what I want.
This month it i 50%
Last month I got X shots at what I want.
If I get to open at least 1.2 X crystals this month, I am fine w that
Because statistically: last month 6/10 crystals would get me what I want. So ideally I should get 6 champs that I want. This month, those 6 champs would drop from 12 crystals (ideally).
So it boils down to how many of these crystals we get to open
I'm not sure about those drop rates, though: I just opened my third account who is UC and the GM version of this crystal does have featured drop rates (5%/15%/80% where regular are 3%/15%/82%), so why cavs don't? ^^"
I only care about 6*, so for the sake of the calculation let's pick the probability for a single event of getting one 6* champion, so:
p(success_old_rates) = p1 = 0.045
p(success_new_rates) = p2 = 0.03
The probability of getting at least 1 6* in any number of experiments can be calculated from the Probability of not getting any 6s at all as:
P(k1>=1) = 1-P(k1=0) (for old rates)
P(k2>=1) = 1-P(k2=0) (for new rates)
Or, using the binomial distribution formula:
P(k1>=0) = 1-(1-p1)^n1
P(k2>=0) = 1-(1-p2)^n2
Breakeven condition - cristals ratio for equal probabilities of success:
P(k1>=0) = P(k2>=0)
1-(1-p1)^n1 = 1-(1-p2)^n2
n1*log(1-p1) = n2*log(1-p2)
n2 = n1*log(1-p1)/log(1-p2)
n2 = n1*log(1-0.045)/log(1-0.03)
which results in
n2 = 1.51 n1
So... we breakeven the chances of getting at least 1 6*, compared with previous month, if we get to open about 1.5 times more cristals.
Unless I botched the calculations somewhere...
The option here is 100% chance to get a 6* against 75% chance to get a6* with also a 25% chance to get 2 6*s
if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*
we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same