**RESOLVED ISSUE WITH SIDE QUEST KEYS**
The game team has resolved this issue. Keys will be distributed via in-game messages and the quest timer will be extended.
More information and timeline here.
*This includes currently unclaimable keys as well*
**WINTER OF WOE - BONUS OBJECTIVE POINT**
As previously announced, the team will be distributing an additional point toward milestones to anyone who completed the Absorbing Man fight in the first step of the Winter of Woe.
This point will be distributed at a later time as it requires the team to pull and analyze data.
The timeline has not been set, but work has started.

You think kabam were so nice to give cav crystals for 2000 shards?? Lol

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Comments

  • guys the maths is there

    So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

    You might be joking but,
    it's better it's 4.5% against 5.91%
    One chance with a 4.5% probability is not better than 2 at 3%.
    Graves_3 said:

    So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.

    Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?
    I don't believe anyone would take that chance unless they were fond of gambling, but we're not dealing with absolutes here. We're dealing with RNG. One may be 1.5% higher, but 2 spins is twice the chance.
    I'm bored so I'll dump some quick maths before DNA can

    You roll 3% once, it becomes 3/100 to get a six star. You roll 3% twice and you end up with a few different paths.

    If didn't pull a six star from either crystal, (97/100)(97/100) would be equal to around 9,409/10000. We can shorten this down to 94.09% of you not getting a six star from either crystal.

    If you pulled a six star from the first one but not the second one, (3/100)(97/100) would be equal to around 291/10000. You can shorten this down to 2.91%.

    If you didn't pull a six star from the first but did on the second, (97/100)(3/100). Once again you would end up with 2.91%.

    Now if you're the lucky **** that managed to get six stars in both crystals in a row,(3/100)(3/100) nets you 9/10000 odds. This is roughly equal to 0.09%.

    Now if you add the events that involve you getting six stars. You have a 5.91% chance of pulling at least one 6* from two crystals.

    Assuming that the shard spread did not decrease from say... last months events.

    You have 1 4.5% chance against 1 5.91% chance once you even it out. But that's only if the shard spread didn't change.

    If anyone has any idea how many crystals you could get without using the top ups in the stores from last month and this month, then we can make a reliable statement. But right now as I see it, these crystals are technically better.
    is this @DNA3000 approved man?
    This is basically the fundamental counting principle, disguised with arithmetic.

    The fundamental counting principle says if there are N results possible from event one and M results possible from event two, and event one and two are independent of each other, there are N x M results possible from the sequence of events one then two.

    When we say there's a 3% chance to get a 6 star, we are in effect saying there are one hundred possibilities, three of which result in a 6* drop. Since there are 100 different possibilities, there are 100 x 100 = 10,000 different possibilities for opening two crystals in a row. There are 3 x 97 ways to get one then none, 97 x 3 ways to get none then one, and 3 x 3 ways to get one and then one more. There are thus 291 ways to get one then none, 291 ways to get none then one, and 9 ways to get two in a row. There are thus 591 ways to get at least one. There are 10,000 possibilities. So there are 591 out of 10,000 ways to get at least one. Which is 591/10000 = 0.0591 = 5.91%.
  • LordPSNLordPSN Posts: 799 ★★★★
    TL DR:
    The new 2000 shards are worse for you to get even a 5 star, let alone 6 star!
  • ThatGuyYouSaw235ThatGuyYouSaw235 Posts: 3,135 ★★★★★
    LordPSN said:

    TL DR:
    The new 2000 shards are worse for you to get even a 5 star, let alone 6 star!

    there's a bunch of mathematical statements here proving the opposite
  • The_Sentry06The_Sentry06 Posts: 7,771 ★★★★★
    edited February 2022
    LordPSN said:

    TL DR:
    The new 2000 shards are worse for you to get even a 5 star, let alone 6 star!

    Not surprised. You are after all the guy who keeps rambling on nonsense about the Ultron nerf...
  • LordPSNLordPSN Posts: 799 ★★★★
    edited February 2022
    So how many 6 stars you got now as you guys thought the this change is better?
    Still think this has more chance to give you 6star?
  • LordPSNLordPSN Posts: 799 ★★★★
    LordPSN said:

    So how many 6 stars you got now as you guys thought the this change is better?
    Still think this has more chance to give you 6star?

    3 disagrees..
    That means 3 people got at least 1 6star!
    Nice!
  • Frivolousz21Frivolousz21 Posts: 436 ★★★
    I have opened like 8-10 of them and pulled one 5* and all 3*s.

    It feels like it's been forever since I've pulled a 6* from a cavalier crystal
  • SquirrelguySquirrelguy Posts: 2,580 ★★★★★
    edited February 2022
    LordPSN said:

    So how many 6 stars you got now as you guys thought the this change is better?
    Still think this has more chance to give you 6star?

    Not that this proves anything since RNG makes 20 crystals a ridiculously small sample size, but I pulled a 6* Spam yesterday from my 4th crystal. Really the change also has to factor in the number of crystals we get now versus earlier, but we don't "think" that there is a greater chance...... the math proves that there is a greater chance.

    Edit: TLDR for the big math posts: If there is a double scoop of ice cream that costs $2 and an option that is about 1.3 scoops for $1, then two of the smaller scoops is better. Unless you're lactose intolerant.
  • SirGamesBondSirGamesBond Posts: 4,034 ★★★★★
    A general Math Question.

    Let's say all players get 20 crystals each.
    What is the probably in percentage for players who won't pull a 6*s out of thier 20.
    Thanks
  • AverageDesiAverageDesi Posts: 5,260 ★★★★★

    A general Math Question.

    Let's say all players get 20 crystals each.
    What is the probably in percentage for players who won't pull a 6*s out of thier 20.
    Thanks

    ~54%. Maybe wrong
  • ThatGuyYouSaw235ThatGuyYouSaw235 Posts: 3,135 ★★★★★

    A general Math Question.

    Let's say all players get 20 crystals each.
    What is the probably in percentage for players who won't pull a 6*s out of thier 20.
    Thanks

    I'm winging it and saying ~54.37%
  • FlippFlipp Posts: 48
    So far I have gotten 3 six stars, Hawkeye dup, Silver Centurion and Spider-Ham. I prefer the 2,000 shard cost vs the 4,000 shard cost. 3% or 4.5% I assume I won’t get a six star anyway. So I’d rather open as many as possible for entertainment purposes if nothing else. But then again I will bet on a sporting event I don’t have interest in just for something to do.
  • Draconic_12Draconic_12 Posts: 997 ★★★★★

    Now, we receive only 3* and we know why

    dude I've already received two five stars from these
  • AverageDesiAverageDesi Posts: 5,260 ★★★★★
    MunchFlob said:

    A general Math Question.

    Let's say all players get 20 crystals each.
    What is the probably in percentage for players who won't pull a 6*s out of thier 20.
    Thanks

    I'm winging it and saying ~54.37%
    I’m gonna say~54.38%
    54.379434293%
    There.
  • SirGamesBondSirGamesBond Posts: 4,034 ★★★★★

    A general Math Question.

    Let's say all players get 20 crystals each.
    What is the probably in percentage for players who won't pull a 6*s out of thier 20.
    Thanks

    ~54%. Maybe wrong
    I'm a proud member of 54% gang.
  • AverageDesiAverageDesi Posts: 5,260 ★★★★★

    A general Math Question.

    Let's say all players get 20 crystals each.
    What is the probably in percentage for players who won't pull a 6*s out of thier 20.
    Thanks

    ~54%. Maybe wrong
    I'm a proud member of 54% gang.
    All that setup for a bad RNG joke? Impressive commitment
  • SirGamesBondSirGamesBond Posts: 4,034 ★★★★★
    edited February 2022

    A general Math Question.

    Let's say all players get 20 crystals each.
    What is the probably in percentage for players who won't pull a 6*s out of thier 20.
    Thanks

    ~54%. Maybe wrong
    I'm a proud member of 54% gang.
    All that setup for a bad RNG joke? Impressive commitment
    They keep deleting my comment that most of us won't get any 6* and it doesnt feel like its only 54%. What else to say, must look a joke to you.. but it's the truth of my account.
    Even with old drop rates, I have not pulled a 6* in 12 months from these monthly cavs and I don't have a reason to believe otherwise.
  • KGW186KGW186 Posts: 171
    Didn’t even take notice of the drop rates, managed to get 6* Tigra from less than 5..
  • FlippFlipp Posts: 48
    A little older thread, but with the event ending and people opening more of these crystals. Just opened 3 and got 4 star miles. 6 star Peni Parker and a 6 star dup of Black Widow Deadly Origins. Puts me at five 6 stars so far
  • FlippFlipp Posts: 48
    Edit - Now an OG Black Widow 6star too
  • 318Chubz318Chubz Posts: 121 ★★
    I pulled (3) 6* champions from the 2000 crystals, and (0) so far from the increased 4000 crystals.

    DO WITH THAT INFO WHAT YOU WANT!!!
  • Deder80Deder80 Posts: 556 ★★★
    KyrinMcH said:

    if u open 10 crystals at a 4.5% chance of a 6* u have a 36.9% chance of getting 1 6*
    if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*

    we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same

    Man I’ve opened 30-40 cav crystals the past month and half and not 1 6*…. I really feel like kabam is giving preloaded crystals. Ives opened hundreds of cav crystals in the past and got 6* but never have I opened that many cav crystals in the amount of time and not gotten a 6*. Something is going on where they want to admit to it or not.
  • ItsDamienItsDamien Posts: 5,626 ★★★★★
    Deder80 said:

    KyrinMcH said:

    if u open 10 crystals at a 4.5% chance of a 6* u have a 36.9% chance of getting 1 6*
    if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*

    we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same

    Man I’ve opened 30-40 cav crystals the past month and half and not 1 6*…. I really feel like kabam is giving preloaded crystals. Ives opened hundreds of cav crystals in the past and got 6* but never have I opened that many cav crystals in the amount of time and not gotten a 6*. Something is going on where they want to admit to it or not.
    Something isn’t going on. It took me several hundred cav crystals before I got one 6*. That’s RNG. Last couple of months I didn’t get any 6* champs. This month I got a 6* Thing.
  • Camby01Camby01 Posts: 572 ★★

    Fabwizi said:

    ItsDamien said:

    Fabwizi said:

    Another L from Kabam, I really fail to understand them.

    Apparently not the only thing you fail to understand if you read through the comments.
    I understand the probability but the thing is Kabam should put changed rates in their notes.

    Also this time the shards are optional we are not getting all shards so it's not 1:2 ratio at all.
    These are *free* crystals. They don't "have" to put into notes.

    So you choose to forgo the crystals and want to complain about reduced drop rates for what reason?

    And you get 15 from the calender so there is no situation that you're worse off here
    Free but for time and energy?
  • SirGamesBondSirGamesBond Posts: 4,034 ★★★★★
    Deder80 said:

    KyrinMcH said:

    if u open 10 crystals at a 4.5% chance of a 6* u have a 36.9% chance of getting 1 6*
    if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*

    we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same

    Man I’ve opened 30-40 cav crystals the past month and half and not 1 6*…. I really feel like kabam is giving preloaded crystals. Ives opened hundreds of cav crystals in the past and got 6* but never have I opened that many cav crystals in the amount of time and not gotten a 6*. Something is going on where they want to admit to it or not.
    Nope, cavs are bad in general. And it's all luck..
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