So....one chance at 4.5 is greater than 2 chances at 3? Curious about that math.
Just curious if you will take a crystal with 100% chance of a six star or 2 crystals with 50% chance of a six star?
I don't believe anyone would take that chance unless they were fond of gambling, but we're not dealing with absolutes here. We're dealing with RNG. One may be 1.5% higher, but 2 spins is twice the chance.
I'm bored so I'll dump some quick maths before DNA can
You roll 3% once, it becomes 3/100 to get a six star. You roll 3% twice and you end up with a few different paths.
If didn't pull a six star from either crystal, (97/100)(97/100) would be equal to around 9,409/10000. We can shorten this down to 94.09% of you not getting a six star from either crystal.
If you pulled a six star from the first one but not the second one, (3/100)(97/100) would be equal to around 291/10000. You can shorten this down to 2.91%.
If you didn't pull a six star from the first but did on the second, (97/100)(3/100). Once again you would end up with 2.91%.
Now if you're the lucky **** that managed to get six stars in both crystals in a row,(3/100)(3/100) nets you 9/10000 odds. This is roughly equal to 0.09%.
Now if you add the events that involve you getting six stars. You have a 5.91% chance of pulling at least one 6* from two crystals.
Assuming that the shard spread did not decrease from say... last months events.
You have 1 4.5% chance against 1 5.91% chance once you even it out. But that's only if the shard spread didn't change.
If anyone has any idea how many crystals you could get without using the top ups in the stores from last month and this month, then we can make a reliable statement. But right now as I see it, these crystals are technically better.
This is basically the fundamental counting principle, disguised with arithmetic.
The fundamental counting principle says if there are N results possible from event one and M results possible from event two, and event one and two are independent of each other, there are N x M results possible from the sequence of events one then two.
When we say there's a 3% chance to get a 6 star, we are in effect saying there are one hundred possibilities, three of which result in a 6* drop. Since there are 100 different possibilities, there are 100 x 100 = 10,000 different possibilities for opening two crystals in a row. There are 3 x 97 ways to get one then none, 97 x 3 ways to get none then one, and 3 x 3 ways to get one and then one more. There are thus 291 ways to get one then none, 291 ways to get none then one, and 9 ways to get two in a row. There are thus 591 ways to get at least one. There are 10,000 possibilities. So there are 591 out of 10,000 ways to get at least one. Which is 591/10000 = 0.0591 = 5.91%.
So how many 6 stars you got now as you guys thought the this change is better? Still think this has more chance to give you 6star?
Not that this proves anything since RNG makes 20 crystals a ridiculously small sample size, but I pulled a 6* Spam yesterday from my 4th crystal. Really the change also has to factor in the number of crystals we get now versus earlier, but we don't "think" that there is a greater chance...... the math proves that there is a greater chance.
Edit: TLDR for the big math posts: If there is a double scoop of ice cream that costs $2 and an option that is about 1.3 scoops for $1, then two of the smaller scoops is better. Unless you're lactose intolerant.
So far I have gotten 3 six stars, Hawkeye dup, Silver Centurion and Spider-Ham. I prefer the 2,000 shard cost vs the 4,000 shard cost. 3% or 4.5% I assume I won’t get a six star anyway. So I’d rather open as many as possible for entertainment purposes if nothing else. But then again I will bet on a sporting event I don’t have interest in just for something to do.
Let's say all players get 20 crystals each. What is the probably in percentage for players who won't pull a 6*s out of thier 20. Thanks
~54%. Maybe wrong
I'm a proud member of 54% gang.
All that setup for a bad RNG joke? Impressive commitment
They keep deleting my comment that most of us won't get any 6* and it doesnt feel like its only 54%. What else to say, must look a joke to you.. but it's the truth of my account. Even with old drop rates, I have not pulled a 6* in 12 months from these monthly cavs and I don't have a reason to believe otherwise.
A little older thread, but with the event ending and people opening more of these crystals. Just opened 3 and got 4 star miles. 6 star Peni Parker and a 6 star dup of Black Widow Deadly Origins. Puts me at five 6 stars so far
if u open 10 crystals at a 4.5% chance of a 6* u have a 36.9% chance of getting 1 6* if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*
we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same
Man I’ve opened 30-40 cav crystals the past month and half and not 1 6*…. I really feel like kabam is giving preloaded crystals. Ives opened hundreds of cav crystals in the past and got 6* but never have I opened that many cav crystals in the amount of time and not gotten a 6*. Something is going on where they want to admit to it or not.
if u open 10 crystals at a 4.5% chance of a 6* u have a 36.9% chance of getting 1 6* if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*
we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same
Man I’ve opened 30-40 cav crystals the past month and half and not 1 6*…. I really feel like kabam is giving preloaded crystals. Ives opened hundreds of cav crystals in the past and got 6* but never have I opened that many cav crystals in the amount of time and not gotten a 6*. Something is going on where they want to admit to it or not.
Something isn’t going on. It took me several hundred cav crystals before I got one 6*. That’s RNG. Last couple of months I didn’t get any 6* champs. This month I got a 6* Thing.
if u open 10 crystals at a 4.5% chance of a 6* u have a 36.9% chance of getting 1 6* if u open 20 at a 3% chance of a 6* u have a 45% chance to get 1 6*
we r actually better off now than before if the number of shards is the same
Man I’ve opened 30-40 cav crystals the past month and half and not 1 6*…. I really feel like kabam is giving preloaded crystals. Ives opened hundreds of cav crystals in the past and got 6* but never have I opened that many cav crystals in the amount of time and not gotten a 6*. Something is going on where they want to admit to it or not.
Nope, cavs are bad in general. And it's all luck..
Comments
The fundamental counting principle says if there are N results possible from event one and M results possible from event two, and event one and two are independent of each other, there are N x M results possible from the sequence of events one then two.
When we say there's a 3% chance to get a 6 star, we are in effect saying there are one hundred possibilities, three of which result in a 6* drop. Since there are 100 different possibilities, there are 100 x 100 = 10,000 different possibilities for opening two crystals in a row. There are 3 x 97 ways to get one then none, 97 x 3 ways to get none then one, and 3 x 3 ways to get one and then one more. There are thus 291 ways to get one then none, 291 ways to get none then one, and 9 ways to get two in a row. There are thus 591 ways to get at least one. There are 10,000 possibilities. So there are 591 out of 10,000 ways to get at least one. Which is 591/10000 = 0.0591 = 5.91%.
The new 2000 shards are worse for you to get even a 5 star, let alone 6 star!
Still think this has more chance to give you 6star?
That means 3 people got at least 1 6star!
Nice!
It feels like it's been forever since I've pulled a 6* from a cavalier crystal
Edit: TLDR for the big math posts: If there is a double scoop of ice cream that costs $2 and an option that is about 1.3 scoops for $1, then two of the smaller scoops is better. Unless you're lactose intolerant.
Let's say all players get 20 crystals each.
What is the probably in percentage for players who won't pull a 6*s out of thier 20.
Thanks
There.
Even with old drop rates, I have not pulled a 6* in 12 months from these monthly cavs and I don't have a reason to believe otherwise.
DO WITH THAT INFO WHAT YOU WANT!!!