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Consequentive crystal pulls are getting out of control

GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
in General Discussion
Hi all,
I am wondering if anyone has noticed this in the last 3 or so months. The probability of opening 2 crystals say 2 six star champs or whatever and landing the same champ.
Mathematically speaking it's so unlikely to land the same champ twice in a row is 0.00008%, you are more likely to get struck by lightning which has a probability of .0005%.
In my alliance someone was lucky enough to pull AA twice, someone pulled 3 tigra from 3 six star crystals (that is just ridiculous). And someone landed pyscho man twice from 2 crystals of the same type.
While some have been lucky others like me have pulled usless champs like black widow original, or psycho man.
The guy who pulled pyschoman is retiring after war, as there seems to be no opportunity to grow his roster.
It is just mathematically improbable, not impossible, but the maths aren't adding up, you need to take a serious look at the maths behind the crystal, as this is really highschool maths
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    I thought there was about 300 champs in the pool that what my calculations are based on.
    If you have 200 champs then
    (1/200)*(1/200)= 0.000025
    This leaves that worst case scenario that you would claim that same champ on the 199th crystal and 399th crystal
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    I have been playing this game for 5+ years never seen this kinda thing b4
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    danielmath said:

    Glads said:

    Maybe my maths is a little off, but it's doesn't discount the fact there is something fishy going on

    It’s not a little off, it’s miles off. If there’s 250 champs, your chances of pulling same champ twice in a row is 1/250
    1/250 is the chance that you pull hercules, 1/250 is the chance you pull mojo, so the probability that you duplicate a champ is 1/250×1/250
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    @danielmath why multiple by 250 they are 2 separate events
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    BigBusterBigBuster Posts: 290 ★★★
    Glads said:

    @danielmath why multiple by 250 they are 2 separate events

    Nah. Let's say you get a random champion. The chance that you get this champion on your next pull is 1/250 (there's only one of this champ in the pool of 250). Bam, that's two in a row. If you were talking about getting a specific champ twice in a row (say herc or someone), then it would be (1/250)^2. There's 250 champs, so the probability of getting two of the same would be 250*(1/250)^2, which is 1/250.
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    danielmath said:

    Glads said:

    @danielmath why multiple by 250 they are 2 separate events

    Because you are looking at ONLY pulling one exact champ twice, as opposed to ANY champ twice.
    If you did that then the probability is the same as landing a single champ it doesn't add up sorry you are wrong
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    For each opening, but that is not what I am saying I am saying the probability of landing the same champ twice in a row is 1/250^2
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    danielmathdanielmath Posts: 4,045 ★★★★★
    edited March 2022
    Glads said:

    For each opening, but that is not what I am saying I am saying the probability of landing the same champ twice in a row is 1/250^2

    Yes, the odds of going corvus corvus is what you said. The odds of getting ANY champ back to back is 1/250.

    Go online or use a graphing calc and do a random number generator from 1 to 250, and see how often the same number appears twice in a row
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    SquirrelguySquirrelguy Posts: 2,635 ★★★★★
    First, your original math (the .004 x .004ish) is calculating the chance of pulling one specific champ, then pulling them again immediately. It is a super rare event, but unless you were predicting the event beforehand, just the chances of pulling the same champ is .004 or .4%, which is not that crazy.

    You then use two examples of people pulling amazing champions back to back, and only one of a bad champ (psycho man), which doesn’t seem to fit with your next statement of “something fishy” going on. If your friend left the game because two pulls convinced him that he would never grow his roster, then he must not have understood that many people go 10-20 pulls before they get a champ that they really get excited about. Roster growth is based on a large number of champs and a long period of opening.

    Third, it is probably more like middle school or elementary maths, but statistics takes some people all the way to college. I’m not sure why your sample size seems to be so small when you say that the “maths aren’t adding up”. In an RNG based game with millions (right?) of downloads, this could easily be happening to hundreds and thousands of summoners without being sketchy. You then say that you’ve been playing for five years but in all those times, have you never pulled the same champ back-to-back?
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    Well I am a university educated and did a fair bit of advanced maths and statistics in years 1 and 2. Your only accounting for the fact it's happened once.
    It's less probable to collect the same champ twice in a row than once. As consecutive draws you need to account for the probability of the last draw
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    I don't believe your calculations. I gave you the reasoning . Pulling a champ twice in a row has to be lower than pulling it once. That is logic.
    Can you please answer me this if you do not believe the maths which you clearly don't.
    In your time of playing mcoc, have you ever! Seen someone open two crystals and get the same champs twice, then open 3 crystals and get the same champ 3 times.
    I doubt that you have...

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    danielmathdanielmath Posts: 4,045 ★★★★★
    Glads said:

    I don't believe your calculations. I gave you the reasoning . Pulling a champ twice in a row has to be lower than pulling it once. That is logic.
    Can you please answer me this if you do not believe the maths which you clearly don't.
    In your time of playing mcoc, have you ever! Seen someone open two crystals and get the same champs twice, then open 3 crystals and get the same champ 3 times.
    I doubt that you have...

    it's all good man, like i said i can just give you the numbers but i can't force you to believe them.

    If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling any 6* twice in a row is 1/250. That's not my opinion, that's just a fact.
    If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling any 6* once in a row is 250/250, aka 100%.
    If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling a specific 6* (say corvus) in your next crystal is 1/250.
    If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling a specific 6* (say corvus) in your next 2 crystals is (1/250)^2.

    Those are all facts, you can accept it or not, won't change it
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    Liss_Bliss_Liss_Bliss_ Posts: 1,779 ★★★★★
    https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/180035/what-are-the-odds-of-getting-the-same-character-in-a-row

    This has been discussed already. And @DNA3000 has weighed in on it. I suggest reading the entire thread.
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    @Liss_Bliss_ it's a very different question consequently from 2 crystals the same champ, or from 3 crystals the same champ three times
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    Liss_Bliss_Liss_Bliss_ Posts: 1,779 ★★★★★
    Glads said:

    I don't believe your calculations. I gave you the reasoning . Pulling a champ twice in a row has to be lower than pulling it once. That is logic.
    Can you please answer me this if you do not believe the maths which you clearly don't.
    In your time of playing mcoc, have you ever! Seen someone open two crystals and get the same champs twice, then open 3 crystals and get the same champ 3 times.
    I doubt that you have...

    Actually yes. A few times. I pulled back to back 5* Domino's
    I pulled and duped my Nebula 5* just this month back to back.
    I have pulled and duped twice my Ægon 3* out of the same batch.
    I have pulled and duped my NF 5* out of the same batch and pulled him 4 more times each of those being back to back or out of the same batch

    The odds of pulling them and then subsequently duping them in the very next crystal is the same as pulling them once.
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    Liss_Bliss_Liss_Bliss_ Posts: 1,779 ★★★★★
    Glads said:

    @Liss_Bliss_ it's a very different question consequently from 2 crystals the same champ, or from 3 crystals the same champ three times

    But that's the thing. It's not. You are seeing a bias that you can't get around. Want till DNA3000 chimes in. He is the math guru here
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    danielmath said:

    Glads said:

    I don't believe your calculations. I gave you the reasoning . Pulling a champ twice in a row has to be lower than pulling it once. That is logic.
    Can you please answer me this if you do not believe the maths which you clearly don't.
    In your time of playing mcoc, have you ever! Seen someone open two crystals and get the same champs twice, then open 3 crystals and get the same champ 3 times.
    I doubt that you have...

    it's all good man, like i said i can just give you the numbers but i can't force you to believe them.

    If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling any 6* twice in a row is 1/250. That's not my opinion, that's just a fact.
    If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling any 6* once in a row is 250/250, aka 100%.
    If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling a specific 6* (say corvus) in your next crystal is 1/250.
    If there's 250 champs, the odds of pulling a specific 6* (say corvus) in your next 2 crystals is (1/250)^2.

    Those are all facts, you can accept it or not, won't change it
    They are not the facts. I am not clueless , 1/250 is the chance from opening 1 crystal, then to open a second crystal has the same 1/250. Because there are 2 events of 1/250, the probability is much lower for the second crystal to be the same.
    I am wasting my time explaining this.

    But @danielmath have you opened 2 crystals and got the same champ from both 2 crystals, or 3 crystals and get the same from those 3 crystals
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    GladsGlads Posts: 397 ★★★
    As I said it's not 1/250
    http://equiseq.com/learn_probability.php
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