Okay I think I have someway to clear this up. What you are saying , @Glads is = 1/250 * 1/250 or 0.004 * 0.004. There is a small mistake in your consideration here. At first glance I also thought you were correct but it's not the case. The first event occurence is not 1/250, it's 1. It's 1/250 if you are looking for ONE SPECIFIC CHAMP. Example - Probability of pulling DOOM AND THEN DUPING HIM = 1/250 * 1/250 = this is what you are calculating @Glads
But what we need is ---- Probability of pulling ANY CHAMP AND THEN DUPING 'THAT' ANY CHAMP = 1 * 1/250 = 0.004
What we are looking for is the second situation where ANY champ can be pulled 2 times back to back in a row. Here can also look for sample space of that - Example - DOOM , DOOM STRYFE, STRYFE ICEMAN, ICEMAN etc.... These will be 250 such possibilities of these types of combinations out of 250x250 total combinations = 62,500 So its gonna be 250/62,500 = also 0.004
The problem is your arguing two different things. 1st is a overall probabilistic assessment of multiple independent events happening over time,like what is the chance of heads landing in a million flips. That should of course converge toward 50% if the coin and flips are fair. This one is the argument for the inverse multiplied example 1/250^2 2nd is what is the independent probability alone of a single coin flip. Or to put it in the framework of the first argument what is the probability of the next coin flip being heads in a series of length 1. This is the argument that 1/250 being the answer.
So your both right, or both wrong depending on if which thought process your approaching the question.
Okay I think I have someway to clear this up. What you are saying , @Glads is = 1/250 * 1/250 or 0.004 * 0.004. There is a small mistake in your consideration here. At first glance I also thought you were correct but it's not the case. The first event occurence is not 1/250, it's 1. It's 1/250 if you are looking for ONE SPECIFIC CHAMP. Example - Probability of pulling DOOM AND THEN DUPING HIM = 1/250 * 1/250 = this is what you are calculating @Glads
But what we need is ---- Probability of pulling ANY CHAMP AND THEN DUPING 'THAT' ANY CHAMP = 1 * 1/250 = 0.004
What we are looking for is the second situation where ANY champ can be pulled 2 times back to back in a row. Here can also look for sample space of that - Example - DOOM , DOOM STRYFE, STRYFE ICEMAN, ICEMAN etc.... These will be 250 such possibilities of these types of combinations out of 250x250 total combinations = 62,500 So its gonna be 250/62,500 = also 0.004
So 2 ways to look at this both correct.
Just because you have spent time to logically show your maths. I do question when you get a probability of one. Each crystal carries 1/250 chances. If I get a good champ or a bad champ that's not a probability of 1, it's 1/250 as there are 250 options u get one. Then on the second crystal you have another 250 options again you only get 1. Therefore the chance that this happen is the number I have been saying.
Okay I think I have someway to clear this up. What you are saying , @Glads is = 1/250 * 1/250 or 0.004 * 0.004. There is a small mistake in your consideration here. At first glance I also thought you were correct but it's not the case. The first event occurence is not 1/250, it's 1. It's 1/250 if you are looking for ONE SPECIFIC CHAMP. Example - Probability of pulling DOOM AND THEN DUPING HIM = 1/250 * 1/250 = this is what you are calculating @Glads
But what we need is ---- Probability of pulling ANY CHAMP AND THEN DUPING 'THAT' ANY CHAMP = 1 * 1/250 = 0.004
What we are looking for is the second situation where ANY champ can be pulled 2 times back to back in a row. Here can also look for sample space of that - Example - DOOM , DOOM STRYFE, STRYFE ICEMAN, ICEMAN etc.... These will be 250 such possibilities of these types of combinations out of 250x250 total combinations = 62,500 So its gonna be 250/62,500 = also 0.004
So 2 ways to look at this both correct.
Just because you have spent time to logically show your maths. I do question when you get a probability of one. Each crystal carries 1/250 chances. If I get a good champ or a bad champ that's not a probability of 1, it's 1/250 as there are 250 options u get one. Then on the second crystal you have another 250 options again you only get 1. Therefore the chance that this happen is the number I have been saying.
Unless you were searching for a champ, the probability of something that has already happened with no specific outcome wanted is 1. If I open a crystal right now, the odds are 100% guaranteed that I get a 6*. The chance of getting the same one again drops to 1/250, now that there is a set target. But if I open a 6* with the intent to try and get hercules, my chances are 1/250, and then (1/250)^2 to get him a second time in a row, because I am trying to get something specific from the start.
The only time this changes is when it's a nexus crystal then 3/250 . To have probability of 1 which you are referring to you would need 250 options. I hope th8s explains my reasoning
Do you know how many times a Random number generator can generate the same number again in a row ? The RNG they use in software are Pseudo RNG algorithms. Nothing can be truly random. They tend to generate the same numbers in a row more often than they should, the outcome is more likely to happen that it should. Strange but that's how it is.
The only time this changes is when it's a nexus crystal then 3/250 . To have probability of 1 which you are referring to you would need 250 options. I hope th8s explains my reasoning
There’s no explanation for your “reasoning” as it is mathematically wrong.
Okay I think I have someway to clear this up. What you are saying , @Glads is = 1/250 * 1/250 or 0.004 * 0.004. There is a small mistake in your consideration here. At first glance I also thought you were correct but it's not the case. The first event occurence is not 1/250, it's 1. It's 1/250 if you are looking for ONE SPECIFIC CHAMP. Example - Probability of pulling DOOM AND THEN DUPING HIM = 1/250 * 1/250 = this is what you are calculating @Glads
But what we need is ---- Probability of pulling ANY CHAMP AND THEN DUPING 'THAT' ANY CHAMP = 1 * 1/250 = 0.004
What we are looking for is the second situation where ANY champ can be pulled 2 times back to back in a row. Here can also look for sample space of that - Example - DOOM , DOOM STRYFE, STRYFE ICEMAN, ICEMAN etc.... These will be 250 such possibilities of these types of combinations out of 250x250 total combinations = 62,500 So its gonna be 250/62,500 = also 0.004
So 2 ways to look at this both correct.
Just because you have spent time to logically show your maths. I do question when you get a probability of one. Each crystal carries 1/250 chances. If I get a good champ or a bad champ that's not a probability of 1, it's 1/250 as there are 250 options u get one. Then on the second crystal you have another 250 options again you only get 1. Therefore the chance that this happen is the number I have been saying.
I understand your fallacy here. According to you probability of pulling the same champ in a row must be higher than pulling just one champ. In a way you are right but you are talking about pulling a PARTICULAR CHAMP, like doom then yes you are right it's 0.004 * 0.004. If you pull a good champ or a bad champ, which means you were not targeting anything , right ? If you are not targeting anything there is no desired outcome so it's probability is 1 here, which means you are getting atleast 1 6* or 5* or whatever champ it is. You are guaranteed to get A champ but it can be any champ so it's 250/250. You are looking at this the wrong way. The formula is = desired outcomes/ total outcomes. Here your desired outcomes is 250.
Do you know how many times a Random number generator can generate the same number again in a row ? The RNG they use in software are Pseudo RNG algorithms. Nothing can be truly random. They tend to generate the same numbers in a row more often than they should, the outcome is more likely to happen that it should. Strange but that's how it is.
Well this changes the entire conversation it's no based on probabilities, and champs can be biased which is concerning, based on this randomisation factor. This leads to far more questions
Hi all, I am wondering if anyone has noticed this in the last 3 or so months. The probability of opening 2 crystals say 2 six star champs or whatever and landing the same champ. Mathematically speaking it's so unlikely to land the same champ twice in a row is 0.00008%, you are more likely to get struck by lightning which has a probability of .0005%. In my alliance someone was lucky enough to pull AA twice, someone pulled 3 tigra from 3 six star crystals (that is just ridiculous). And someone landed pyscho man twice from 2 crystals of the same type. While some have been lucky others like me have pulled usless champs like black widow original, or psycho man. The guy who pulled pyschoman is retiring after war, as there seems to be no opportunity to grow his roster. It is just mathematically improbable, not impossible, but the maths aren't adding up, you need to take a serious look at the maths behind the crystal, as this is really highschool maths
I opened 2 5* featured crystals and got Jane Frost both time. When looking at when I clicked on the crystals she wasn’t even a champs viewable line spinning. Funny part is when I click on a 3 * that I was in the viewable line I get one of those champs. Both times I got Jane there were 3 totally different champs in the spinning view when I clicked it. Those crystals are pre-loaded if you ask me. I got the worse champ 2 times in a one week. Never has that happen before. I mean I dupe champs a lot but it’s not the in the same week. I might dupe a champs once a month out of my 5* or 6*’s.
I thought there was about 300 champs in the pool that what my calculations are based on. If you have 200 champs then (1/200)*(1/200)= 0.000025 This leaves that worst case scenario that you would claim that same champ on the 199th crystal and 399th crystal
These are not correct calculations. The first pull does not matter. And thus does not have to be taken into consideration. The double pull comes after the first pull. It does not matter who the first champ is. It only matters who the second champ is. So 1/~200. So 0,005. Still not likely. But a LOT more likely.
Well I am a university educated and did a fair bit of advanced maths and statistics in years 1 and 2. Your only accounting for the fact it's happened once. It's less probable to collect the same champ twice in a row than once. As consecutive draws you need to account for the probability of the last draw
Okay, here’s an issue. You are trying to run an experiment in which you pull the same champion twice. It does not matter which champion, just two times in a row. As such, the first pull of the crystal does not have limiting parameters on it. Any champion will do to set the parameters for the second crystal pull, which is the one that matters to see if you get the same champion again. The first crystal is what sets the conditions for the experiment. It does not matter for the purposes of the experiment if you first pull Kitty Pryde or Hercules or Beast or Cyclops, it only matters that you pull that same champion again on the second crystal.
As such, the first crystal spin has no probability associated with it for the purposes of the experiment because the result does not matter. It would only matter if you called your shot prior to opening it. But, because that is not what we are testing, it doesn’t matter. Only the second crystal matters. That is why everybody else is telling you the odds of pulling the same *any* champion back to back is 1/250 (it’s actually lower than that because we don’t have 250 champions in the pool, but I understand it’s just a placeholder value).
Finally, to the proposition that something is wrong as a result of this 1 in 250 chance occurring: if it just kept happening to a specific player, then yeah I’d agree with you. But spread out across a community of this size? With this many active players? 1 in 250 isn’t just plausible, it’s practically inevitable with a fair degree of frequency. It is weird for you specifically to get struck by lightning, but unavoidable that *somebody* will.
But @danielmath have you opened 2 crystals and got the same champ from both 2 crystals, or 3 crystals and get the same from those 3 crystals
You mean like this?
As I said something is very wrong when this is happening so frequently... And it's only been happening recently Now that we all agree my thinking is right from the proof I have provided... Why is this happening so frequently something is wrong
Can you describe what "so frequently" means? How often is it happening? On what scale? What's your sample size?
@danielmath why multiple by 250 they are 2 separate events
Because you are looking at ONLY pulling one exact champ twice, as opposed to ANY champ twice.
If you did that then the probability is the same as landing a single champ it doesn't add up sorry you are wrong
Lol no i’m not wrong. The odds of pulling corvus is identical to the odds of pulling ANY 2 champs back to back
This is the point people mostly overlook. You have a chance of pulling one of the champs each time, regardless of whether you had pulled that same champ. So after pulling champ A, the odds for your next pull are the same as they ere for the first pull. Same pool of champs, same odds.
It feels wrong when it is the same champ twice in a row, but it is not. Why would the odds of pulling say, Herc and then Corvus, be any different than pulling Herc twice in a row? The odds for each pull do not change because of your previous pull. Each pull is independent and based solely on the number of champs in the pool.
For an additional illustration, say you have a bag of ten different colored marbles. The odds of you reaching in and grabbing a marble are 10/10, because there is nothing in the bag besides marbles. You do this and pull out a red marble.
While it is true that you here was a 1 in 10 chance of pulling this specific marble, that fact is not relevant to anything because you didn’t care about what marble you grabbed. You just wanted a marble.
Now you put that marble back in the bag and shake it up. You think to yourself, “what a fool I was! I miss my red marble friend!” Now you want to reach blindly back into the bag and hope you pull out the red marble. The odds of that are 1 in 10 because now you have a specific target in mind whereas previously you did not.
All of this is to say, I hope that you and your marbles are reunited.
@danielmath why multiple by 250 they are 2 separate events
Because you are looking at ONLY pulling one exact champ twice, as opposed to ANY champ twice.
If you did that then the probability is the same as landing a single champ it doesn't add up sorry you are wrong
Lol no i’m not wrong. The odds of pulling corvus is identical to the odds of pulling ANY 2 champs back to back
People don't seem to understand math. This is correct. The probably of pulling any champ is 1/200 or whatever the total champs. The probably of pulling a specific champ is 1/200. The odds of pulling the same champ after just pulling them is still 1/200.
The odds of pulling 2 specific champs that you want is 1/40000 or about .0025%.
But the odds of pulling 2 in a row like they are complaining about is .5%.
@danielmath why multiple by 250 they are 2 separate events
Because you are looking at ONLY pulling one exact champ twice, as opposed to ANY champ twice.
If you did that then the probability is the same as landing a single champ it doesn't add up sorry you are wrong
Lol no i’m not wrong. The odds of pulling corvus is identical to the odds of pulling ANY 2 champs back to back
People don't seem to understand math. This is correct. The probably of pulling any champ is 1/200 or whatever the total champs. The probably of pulling a specific champ is 1/200. The odds of pulling the same champ after just pulling them is still 1/200.
The odds of pulling 2 specific champs that you want is 1/40000 or about .0025%.
But the odds of pulling 2 in a row like they are complaining about is .5%.
.5% being odds high enough to gamble for cavs on for a lot of people.
Also, help me out, what does consequentive means? Is that supposed to be consecutive or consequential?
Definitely meant to say consecutive. It was a really bold move for OP to bring up how educated they are when coupled with bad math and incorrect word choice, but I get the vibe English may not be their first language so I didn’t want to dwell on it.
Well I am a university educated and did a fair bit of advanced maths and statistics in years 1 and 2. Your only accounting for the fact it's happened once. It's less probable to collect the same champ twice in a row than once. As consecutive draws you need to account for the probability of the last draw
Imma help you here. You have two boxes, each with tickets numbered 1-250. You pull 110 out of the first box. What are the chances of you pulling ticket 110 out of the second box?
Each ticket represents a champ and each box a crystal. You're welcome 😉
If you still don't get it, then google dice rolls, as its probablymore commonly explained. Rolling the same number on 2 dice is a 1/6 chance. Rolling 2 1s specifically is a 1/36 chance (1/6 x 1/6). In this example, getting any champ twice is a 1/250 chance, while getting a specific champ, like getting double 1s is 1/x^2 or 1/250 x 1/250 or 1/62500.
I'm just going to add one more voice to the fray pointing out that the odds of pulling duplicate champs is 1/250, or whatever the pool of the crystal is.
Here's a another simple example for anybody still not getting it 3 pages into this thing. We get two crystals that has 3 champs:
Herc Mags Doom
Glads would tell us that the odds of getting duplicate champions out of this crystal is (1/3)*(1/3), or 1/9. 1 out of 3 for the first crystal time 1 out of 3 for the second crystal.
You're excited, because these champs are dope, and you pop both crystals immediately. These are all of the possible outcomes of your two pulls:
How many total outcomes are there? 9 How many outcomes have consecutive champs? 3
Your odds of getting the same champ consecutively from this dope crystal is 3/9, or 1/3.
If you still don't get the math here, lay out all of the options again for opening 2 crystals with a 4 champion pool and see what the odds of consecutive champs are. Then do it with 2 crystals with a 5 champion pool, a 6 champion pool, and so on until you get to a 250ish champion pool. You'll get the point long before you get that high.
Firstly probability is not percentage, it's the likelihood that event will happen in that pool 1 chance from 250 to score champ A, assuming each champ in thise crystal pools have no greater or lesser chance than others. So assuming that fact is correct the chance you will have like the stat's website says and like I have been saying is 1/250= .004 0.004x .004 = 0.000016 chance from 2 crystals Just the same thinking as coin 2 Heads from 2 throws, is 0.25 As each toss has a 0.5 chance of a head.
Your 0.000016 is the chance of pulling specifically corvus corvus. What about doom doom? And all other champs? You would need to add your # 250 times
Remember this is from 2 crystals only, the most crystals the more chance, assuming each character has the same weight in the crystal, it is the same 0.000016 chance to score doom consecutive or corvus or kamila khan
Now you’re talking about a totally different conspiracy. If you have 2 unopened 6* crystal and pop them, theres a 1/250 chance you will get the same champ in both
It's the same as a coin toss, it's not that hard. First crystal 1/250 Second crystal 1/250 For it to happen like that consequently is 0.000016 Like the hh in a coin toss 1/2 * 1/2= 0.25
You're ONLY looking at ONE specific case of HH and not seeing TT which is also "pulling" the same consecutively...
HH HT TH TT .... Total 4 possibilities and HALF are consecutive outcomes. Same of pulling champs out of 2 crystals. Each ONE is 1/250 x 1/250 but there are 250 champs.
Herc Herc DOOM doom Khan Khan Etc etc.
Add it up its 250 x ( 1/ 250² ) which is 1/250.
Seriously it's not hard, you are overthinking it and refuse to listen.
I disagree and you have overlooked an important variable, you pull one champ once 1/250 then the second crystal you pop is 1/250. You multiple those to get your probability of 0.000016...
You're making a common error: The place you're going wrong is the odds you're quoting for the first champion.
That's because if your concern is 'people pull the same champion back to back, the odds for that must be crazy', then it doesn't matter who they pull first: any champion will do - so the odds of pulling them is 1 in 1: you're going to get someone from that crystal*.
The chance to pull any champion back to back is therefore 1 X 1/250
The second stage is where probability comes into it: Having defined your champion, the odds of pulling that particular champion again are 1/250.
----
* If you want to pre-define the champion, then your maths is perfect: If you have two crystals and you're hoping to pull and Awaken Corvus in particular, then the odds of pulling Corvus back to back from two crystals is 1/250 X 1/250.
Comments
What you are saying , @Glads is =
1/250 * 1/250 or 0.004 * 0.004.
There is a small mistake in your consideration here. At first glance I also thought you were correct but it's not the case.
The first event occurence is not 1/250, it's 1.
It's 1/250 if you are looking for ONE SPECIFIC CHAMP.
Example -
Probability of pulling DOOM AND THEN DUPING HIM = 1/250 * 1/250 = this is what you are calculating @Glads
But what we need is ----
Probability of pulling ANY CHAMP AND THEN DUPING 'THAT' ANY CHAMP
= 1 * 1/250 = 0.004
What we are looking for is the second situation where ANY champ can be pulled 2 times back to back in a row.
Here can also look for sample space of that -
Example -
DOOM , DOOM
STRYFE, STRYFE
ICEMAN, ICEMAN
etc....
These will be 250 such possibilities of these types of combinations out of
250x250 total combinations = 62,500
So its gonna be 250/62,500 = also 0.004
So 2 ways to look at this both correct.
I guess, I Win.
1st is a overall probabilistic assessment of multiple independent events happening over time,like what is the chance of heads landing in a million flips. That should of course converge toward 50% if the coin and flips are fair. This one is the argument for the inverse multiplied example 1/250^2
2nd is what is the independent probability alone of a single coin flip. Or to put it in the framework of the first argument what is the probability of the next coin flip being heads in a series of length 1. This is the argument that 1/250 being the answer.
So your both right, or both wrong depending on if which thought process your approaching the question.
I do question when you get a probability of one.
Each crystal carries 1/250 chances. If I get a good champ or a bad champ that's not a probability of 1, it's 1/250 as there are 250 options u get one.
Then on the second crystal you have another 250 options again you only get 1. Therefore the chance that this happen is the number I have been saying.
To have probability of 1 which you are referring to you would need 250 options.
I hope th8s explains my reasoning
According to you probability of pulling the same champ in a row must be higher than pulling just one champ.
In a way you are right but you are talking about pulling a PARTICULAR CHAMP, like doom then yes you are right it's 0.004 * 0.004.
If you pull a good champ or a bad champ, which means you were not targeting anything , right ?
If you are not targeting anything there is no desired outcome so it's probability is 1 here, which means you are getting atleast 1 6* or 5* or whatever champ it is. You are guaranteed to get A champ but it can be any champ so it's 250/250.
You are looking at this the wrong way. The formula is = desired outcomes/ total outcomes.
Here your desired outcomes is 250.
This leads to far more questions
Okay, here’s an issue. You are trying to run an experiment in which you pull the same champion twice. It does not matter which champion, just two times in a row. As such, the first pull of the crystal does not have limiting parameters on it. Any champion will do to set the parameters for the second crystal pull, which is the one that matters to see if you get the same champion again. The first crystal is what sets the conditions for the experiment. It does not matter for the purposes of the experiment if you first pull Kitty Pryde or Hercules or Beast or Cyclops, it only matters that you pull that same champion again on the second crystal.
As such, the first crystal spin has no probability associated with it for the purposes of the experiment because the result does not matter. It would only matter if you called your shot prior to opening it. But, because that is not what we are testing, it doesn’t matter. Only the second crystal matters. That is why everybody else is telling you the odds of pulling the same *any* champion back to back is 1/250 (it’s actually lower than that because we don’t have 250 champions in the pool, but I understand it’s just a placeholder value).
Finally, to the proposition that something is wrong as a result of this 1 in 250 chance occurring: if it just kept happening to a specific player, then yeah I’d agree with you. But spread out across a community of this size? With this many active players? 1 in 250 isn’t just plausible, it’s practically inevitable with a fair degree of frequency. It is weird for you specifically to get struck by lightning, but unavoidable that *somebody* will.
It feels wrong when it is the same champ twice in a row, but it is not. Why would the odds of pulling say, Herc and then Corvus, be any different than pulling Herc twice in a row? The odds for each pull do not change because of your previous pull. Each pull is independent and based solely on the number of champs in the pool.
While it is true that you here was a 1 in 10 chance of pulling this specific marble, that fact is not relevant to anything because you didn’t care about what marble you grabbed. You just wanted a marble.
Now you put that marble back in the bag and shake it up. You think to yourself, “what a fool I was! I miss my red marble friend!” Now you want to reach blindly back into the bag and hope you pull out the red marble. The odds of that are 1 in 10 because now you have a specific target in mind whereas previously you did not.
All of this is to say, I hope that you and your marbles are reunited.
Couldn’t not post this. #Illuminaticonfirmed
The odds of pulling 2 specific champs that you want is 1/40000 or about .0025%.
But the odds of pulling 2 in a row like they are complaining about is .5%.
Each ticket represents a champ and each box a crystal. You're welcome 😉
If you still don't get it, then google dice rolls, as its probablymore commonly explained. Rolling the same number on 2 dice is a 1/6 chance. Rolling 2 1s specifically is a 1/36 chance (1/6 x 1/6). In this example, getting any champ twice is a 1/250 chance, while getting a specific champ, like getting double 1s is 1/x^2 or 1/250 x 1/250 or 1/62500.
Here's a another simple example for anybody still not getting it 3 pages into this thing. We get two crystals that has 3 champs:
Herc
Mags
Doom
Glads would tell us that the odds of getting duplicate champions out of this crystal is (1/3)*(1/3), or 1/9. 1 out of 3 for the first crystal time 1 out of 3 for the second crystal.
You're excited, because these champs are dope, and you pop both crystals immediately. These are all of the possible outcomes of your two pulls:
Herc, Herc
Herc, Mags
Herc, Doom
Mags, Herc
Mags, Mags
Mags, Doom
Doom, Herc
Doom, Mags
Doom, Doom
How many total outcomes are there? 9
How many outcomes have consecutive champs? 3
Your odds of getting the same champ consecutively from this dope crystal is 3/9, or 1/3.
If you still don't get the math here, lay out all of the options again for opening 2 crystals with a 4 champion pool and see what the odds of consecutive champs are. Then do it with 2 crystals with a 5 champion pool, a 6 champion pool, and so on until you get to a 250ish champion pool. You'll get the point long before you get that high.
That's because if your concern is 'people pull the same champion back to back, the odds for that must be crazy', then it doesn't matter who they pull first: any champion will do - so the odds of pulling them is 1 in 1: you're going to get someone from that crystal*.
The chance to pull any champion back to back is therefore 1 X 1/250
The second stage is where probability comes into it: Having defined your champion, the odds of pulling that particular champion again are 1/250.
----
* If you want to pre-define the champion, then your maths is perfect: If you have two crystals and you're hoping to pull and Awaken Corvus in particular, then the odds of pulling Corvus back to back from two crystals is 1/250 X 1/250.