**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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I think the only time it worked agaisnt kabam is during the punisher arena crystals issue
I pick one,
Another door is opened to be nothing
I can stay or switch.
Both options are 50/50 now. Where am I wrong?
If someone replies to this please @SkyLord7000 I don’t wanna miss this.
To demonstrate this, imagine there were 100 doors, 1 with the prize and 99 with nothing. You randomly pick one, the host then opens 98 doors showing you nothing. He then asks you whether you want to swap.
The chances of you randomly picking the one door with the prize out of 100 is so low, that the host revealing 98 doors without a prize means that the final door he didn’t reveal likely has the prize in it.
The odds were locked in at 1% chance when you selected the first door. So the odds now that the other door contains the prize is 99%. Even though there are two options, it’s not 50/50.
Tried to italic the parts that confused me the most.
Now, you choose 1door for you to open and the host chooses 9doors for him to open.
He gives you a chance to swap with him. Ie you get 9 doors to open. Will you switch? Now, whether or not the host has opened the doors(without reward) before asking you to switch doesn't matter because you have 9 doors to check for the car instead of 1
Let’s go with 100 doors. When you pick your first door, what are the odds that you picked the right one? The host hasn’t done anything yet.
The odds are 1/100 right? Because there are 100 doors and only 1 is right. That means there’s a 99% chance that you didn’t pick right the first time. The host then opens 98 of the doors, and shows you two doors. The odds don’t magically change now, the prize behind your first door hasn’t changed and they are still the original odds of 1% chance.
Let’s go back to a smaller number. Let’s say there’s 5 doors. There are 5 scenarios right? Doors 1-5 are the 5 options you can pick you can pick. Let’s say Door 3 has the prize behind it.
Scenario 1
You pick Door 1. The host opens door 2,4 and 5 and you have a choice between 1 and 3. Switching gets you the prize
Scenario 2
You pick door 2. The host opens doors 1, 4 and 5 and you have a choice between 2 and 3. Switching gets you the prize
Scenario 3
You pick door 3. The host opens 3 of the other doors, let’s say 1, 2 and 4. You have a choice between 3 and 5. Switching doesn’t get you the prize here
Scenario 4
You pick door 4. The host opens doors 1, 2 and 5 and you have a choice between 3 and 4. Switching gets you the prize
Scenario 5
You pick door 5. The host opens doors 1, 2
and 4 and you have a choice between 3 and 5. Switching gets you the prize
Can you see how in 4 out of 5 of those scenarios if you swap you will get the prize? Because it’s not a 50/50 choice between one door and another. The odds were decided when you had a 1 in 5 chance to pick the correct door at the start.
That said, if you're talking about the event cavs, then I suspect the odds of pulling the same champ over multiple pulls is actually quite a bit higher than in a 250 champ pool crystal. The Metal and Mutant cavs only have 27 champs in them with a 50% chance of getting the same rarity and an 81% chance of getting one of two rarities. The Cast and Crew crystals has the same odds with only a 20 champ pool. These pools being so much smaller is going to make collisions (dupes) much much more common.
Imagine for the sake of this example that the coin flip on 3* rarity vs. non-3* rarity happens first each time you open a crystal. In an average pop of 10 crystals, you'd get 5 crystals that are in 3* in rarity. If those 5 crystals are Metal and Mutant, with 27 champs in the pool, those 5 crystals give you a 32% chance of getting a dupe. Regardless of what the other 5 crystals in the 10-crystal pop do, you're looking at a baseline dupe rate of 1 in 3. Those other 5 crystals will also have some smaller percent chance of duplicating among champ and rarity. If we ignore rarity entirely and just ask what the odds are of a repeat champ in a 10 pop of M&M crystals, it's about 85%. Those numbers become 42% and 93%, respectively, in the Cast and Crew crystal with 20 champs in the pool.
You can speculate all day long, but unless you've got some actual math back up your belief that duplicates in these crystals shouldn't be rare, you're just not going to be convincing. I get that it feels shifty, but it's really not. Duplicates are just way more common than your intuition would lead you to believe.
Edit: I realized that I didn't address your first question. It doesn't matter which accounts are opening the crystals unless you're asking about crystals within a particular set limited by the account. The odds of you opening 10 crystals and getting a dupe are the same as the odds of you and I each opening 5 crystals and there being a dupe somewhere in our shared pool. The odds only go up if you're asking about all crystal pulls by a 30 person alliance, where many more crystals are being opened than any one account could open alone.
In the Monty Hall problem, there are effectively two sets of doors: the set of doors you pick on your initial guess and the set of doors you don't pick on your initial guess. The set of doors you pick on your initial guess is 1 door and has a 33% chance of a car. The set of doors you don't pick on your initial guess has a 2 doors and a combined 67% chance of a car. When you get the opportunity to switch doors, you're really getting the opportunity to switch sets--from a set with 1 door to a set with 2 doors.
Because Monty always knows where the car is, him showing you that there's a goat behind one of the doors in the set you didn't choose doesn't change the starting probability of the car being in that set. You already know that there's at least one goat in that set, and Monty changes nothing by showing you that goat. He's not choosing the door randomly, he's just telling you the information you already know and making it feel like new information. You're still picking those two doors combined by switching.
Let's take a look at these scenarios, but instead of thinking about the final outcome, think about the choice you have to make between swapping or staying:
You choose door 1, and the doors break down like this:
Door 1: Goat
Door 2: Car
Door 3: Goat
Monty is going to show you door 3, and you get to choose between staying on door 1 and your goat or swapping to door 2 and getting the car.
You choose door 1, and the doors break down like this:
Door 1: Goat
Door 2: Goat
Door 3: Car
Monty is going to show you door 2, and you get to choose between staying on door 1 and your goat or swapping to door 2 and getting the car
In both scenarios, Monty is forced to show you a particular door from the remaining set, and that necessitates that the car is behind the other door. The existence of the car in the set of doors you didn't choose forces him to pick a particular door to show you the goat. So whether the car is behind door 2 or door 3, you effectively get to pick both doors by swapping, because you know the car comes with a goat behind the other door already.
The last scenario is the one where you lose if you swap. You choose door 1, and the doors break down like this:
Door 1: Car
Door 2: Goat
Door 3: Goat
Monty has the freedom to show you either door 2 or 3, and when you swap, you swap into the set of two goats. But again, there are 3 scenarios and only 1 of those 3 land you with the two goat doors if you swap.
Edit: @SkyLord7000 sorry, forgot to tag
This kind of crystal pull posts always end up with similar high school probability discussion. I really dunno how many times I saw the same responses from similar group of players. I suggest Mods put one of this kinds of post to the top. And I really hope we can see the algorithm behind the RNG someday. Now it seems like we’re watching two group of ppl arguing whether human is created by God or simply Darwin evolution.
👀👀👀🤦🤦🤦
...I knew this would happen when DNA mentioned the Monty Hall problem...