**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Comments
The way probability works, is that your chance for an awakening gem from any single run stays the same. But if you do 100 runs, you have a higher chance overall to get a 6* gem from *at least 1* of the runs, than if you just did 1. Does that make sense?
It’s not the same chance overall to get at least 1 gem from a billion runs than just 1 is it? But as you said, you can’t just add up 1% until it’s 100% because then 100 pulls would guarantee a gem. So how do you work out what the overall chance of getting lucky at least one time from X runs?
It’s a 1% chance to get a 6* gem from 1 run, but what is the chance to get at least 1 6* gem from 100 runs?
The way to do this, is take the % chance of not getting a gem (in this case you have a 99% chance to not get a gem) and just say “what are the chances that in every single run I do, I hit that 99% and I don’t get a gem”
So if we use the example of 1 run. What are the chances that we hit the 99%? Well, 0.99^1 = 0.99 so that’s a 99% chance to not get a gem. It checks out. 1% chance to get a gem as we suspect.
Now for 2 runs, the chances of getting the 99% twice is 0.99 * 0.99 = 0.99^2 = 0.98
Which is a 98% chance that you’re going to get 0 awakening gems, leaving a 2% chance that you get either 1, or 2 awakening gems. (The chances for 2 is absurdly small though from just 2 runs - 0.01%)
But what if we have 100 runs?
Well what you’re working out is; what if in each of these 100 runs, I get the 99% each time. So that’s 0.99*0.99 …. 100 times. Which is 0.99^100 = 0.36. So that’s a 36% chance that if you ran it 100 times you’d get 0 gems.
So that means, that 1-0.36 = the chance that we don’t get 0 from running it 100 times. I.e. 64% is the chance that we get at least 1 gem from 100 runs.
That’s the % chance of 1 gem, 2 gems, 3 gems etc up to 100 gems all added up. But obviously they get obscenely small % chance, so the bulk of it is the chance of getting 1 gem.
This is what I mean by a 30% chance overall. When you do this calculation with 35 runs, you get a 70% chance that we get 0 gems, which means a 30% chance that you get 1, 2, 3 etc gems. And of that 30% chance, most of it is 1 gem.
TL:DR percentages are not additive nor did I say they were. You’re working out the chance of getting “not a gem” every single run, and then doing 1 minus that chance to have an overall % of at least 1 gem.
Correct me if I'm wrong in understanding how this sq works, and that's a total of 700,000 Candies for 35 runs on Cav+ difficulty (assuming we only get candy paths) and that total will enable us to purchase all the items from Cav+ Shop.
total 5 cav candy crystal from shop then 2 cav candy crystal weekly for 5 weeks from solo event.
No one likes the Ring of rifts, it's nice to see a 6* generic awakening Gem in legendary difficulty however with a 1 percent chance of getting it, also you can see where Kabam values items you have the same chance to get 1(one) 6* champion as you do to get a 6* awakening Gem which is silly.
Also as a thronebreaker free to play person who has also done my initial clear of 8.1 with NO r4 6* champions I find it silly how there is no thronebreaker or Paragon store listed to get r4 materials I find it silly how people in 8.1 are being grouped with people in 6.1 that's a 2 act difference, I am upset with this update please take ftp in consideration in the November update, thanks
50%-T5cc, gold, 6* stones, T5 basic
30%-6*AG, 6* hero shards
which means looks a lot nicer than 1-2% but requires a whole month of grinding
also just for fun 2.5% of players are going to get royally screwed over and pull candy 35/35 times they run a rift
To know the odds of getting 1 or more gems, find the odds of getting 0. There’s a .99 chance each run fails. .99^35 is about .7. 1-.7= a .3 chance at a gem. Some rare occurrences have people with multiple gems within that 30%.
think we have?
1. best rewards dependent on RNG
2. Per path costs energy
3. Can do only 1 difficulty
Kabam successfully Brought all the hated qualities of different sq in a single one. Well done kabam!!
If anybody ends up getting gold, make sure to buy it all out at the cheaper proven and conqueror rate first.
Seriously: the community will solve these and give daily Duel targets in like twenty minutes.
Just wait for a sticky thread to start. 😉
t4 basic cost of conquerer is lower than cavalier but more than uncollected.
Similarly the cost of Gold and other items doesnt make sense.