because every time we have RIFTS side quest y’all have an item that we can buy or win from SOLO EVENT that allows us to pick the path we want…
but because the rewards are so damn juicy, we don’t get such an item this month???
I did think that for a second, but then I realised that obviously it would just mean a guaranteed 6* awakening for everyone that month. So I understand why they didn’t.
Personally, I’d rather have a chance at a 6* gem than for it to be less good rewards but I can choose them. A chance at a 6* gem is better than guaranteed 5k 6* shards for example in my mind.
Since there are 35 entries, and a 1% chance for a 6* gem that means it’s 0.99^35 = 0.7 chance to not get a 6* gem all 35 times, so about a 30% chance for a 6*gem next month. I’m happy with that, going from a 0% chance for a gem to 30 is good with me.
I don't think its additive like that. Each entry u have 1% chance for awakening gem. If rng was additive then premium hero crystal would have given you guaranteed 4 star after 50 pulls at least. Chance being 2.4% so according to your calculation after 50 pull its 50X2.4= 120% chance.
But it isn't. 2.4% means each pull chance is 2.4% doesn't matter you open 1000 or 100.
I never said it *was* additive. This is going to be a long maths post, so bear with… but, you did ask..
The way probability works, is that your chance for an awakening gem from any single run stays the same. But if you do 100 runs, you have a higher chance overall to get a 6* gem from *at least 1* of the runs, than if you just did 1. Does that make sense?
It’s not the same chance overall to get at least 1 gem from a billion runs than just 1 is it? But as you said, you can’t just add up 1% until it’s 100% because then 100 pulls would guarantee a gem. So how do you work out what the overall chance of getting lucky at least one time from X runs?
It’s a 1% chance to get a 6* gem from 1 run, but what is the chance to get at least 1 6* gem from 100 runs?
The way to do this, is take the % chance of not getting a gem (in this case you have a 99% chance to not get a gem) and just say “what are the chances that in every single run I do, I hit that 99% and I don’t get a gem”
So if we use the example of 1 run. What are the chances that we hit the 99%? Well, 0.99^1 = 0.99 so that’s a 99% chance to not get a gem. It checks out. 1% chance to get a gem as we suspect.
Now for 2 runs, the chances of getting the 99% twice is 0.99 * 0.99 = 0.99^2 = 0.98
Which is a 98% chance that you’re going to get 0 awakening gems, leaving a 2% chance that you get either 1, or 2 awakening gems. (The chances for 2 is absurdly small though from just 2 runs - 0.01%)
But what if we have 100 runs?
Well what you’re working out is; what if in each of these 100 runs, I get the 99% each time. So that’s 0.99*0.99 …. 100 times. Which is 0.99^100 = 0.36. So that’s a 36% chance that if you ran it 100 times you’d get 0 gems.
So that means, that 1-0.36 = the chance that we don’t get 0 from running it 100 times. I.e. 64% is the chance that we get at least 1 gem from 100 runs.
That’s the % chance of 1 gem, 2 gems, 3 gems etc up to 100 gems all added up. But obviously they get obscenely small % chance, so the bulk of it is the chance of getting 1 gem.
This is what I mean by a 30% chance overall. When you do this calculation with 35 runs, you get a 70% chance that we get 0 gems, which means a 30% chance that you get 1, 2, 3 etc gems. And of that 30% chance, most of it is 1 gem.
TL:DR percentages are not additive nor did I say they were. You’re working out the chance of getting “not a gem” every single run, and then doing 1 minus that chance to have an overall % of at least 1 gem.
We can only do one difficulty of SQ right? since we are gated by Spot's spots we get daily. Correct me if I'm wrong in understanding how this sq works, and that's a total of 700,000 Candies for 35 runs on Cav+ difficulty (assuming we only get candy paths) and that total will enable us to purchase all the items from Cav+ Shop.
total 5 cav candy crystal from shop then 2 cav candy crystal weekly for 5 weeks from solo event.
Hi I made an account just to say this: No one likes the Ring of rifts, it's nice to see a 6* generic awakening Gem in legendary difficulty however with a 1 percent chance of getting it, also you can see where Kabam values items you have the same chance to get 1(one) 6* champion as you do to get a 6* awakening Gem which is silly. Also as a thronebreaker free to play person who has also done my initial clear of 8.1 with NO r4 6* champions I find it silly how there is no thronebreaker or Paragon store listed to get r4 materials I find it silly how people in 8.1 are being grouped with people in 6.1 that's a 2 act difference, I am upset with this update please take ftp in consideration in the November update, thanks
Hi I made an account just to say this: No one likes the Ring of rifts, it's nice to see a 6* generic awakening Gem in legendary difficulty however with a 1 percent chance of getting it, also you can see where Kabam values items you have the same chance to get 1(one) 6* champion as you do to get a 6* awakening Gem which is silly. Also as a thronebreaker free to play person who has also done my initial clear of 8.1 with NO r4 6* champions I find it silly how there is no thronebreaker or Paragon store listed to get r4 materials I find it silly how people in 8.1 are being grouped with people in 6.1 that's a 2 act difference, I am upset with this update please take ftp in consideration in the November update, thanks
It isn't a 6* generic awakening gem, it is a 6* awakening gem crystal so it is RNG for the class when you spin it.
Hi I made an account just to say this: No one likes the Ring of rifts, it's nice to see a 6* generic awakening Gem in legendary difficulty however with a 1 percent chance of getting it, also you can see where Kabam values items you have the same chance to get 1(one) 6* champion as you do to get a 6* awakening Gem which is silly. Also as a thronebreaker free to play person who has also done my initial clear of 8.1 with NO r4 6* champions I find it silly how there is no thronebreaker or Paragon store listed to get r4 materials I find it silly how people in 8.1 are being grouped with people in 6.1 that's a 2 act difference, I am upset with this update please take ftp in consideration in the November update, thanks
You get a R4 from exploring act 7 and there is R4 materials there. Maybe go back and explore that content instead of creating a new store. You can also get R4 mats from exploring MEQs for TB and up.
If I’m thronebreaker, can I buy everything from all the stores? Or just from the Cavalier+ one?
I think this is another one where we can buy the lower progression items because otherwise the T1A is ridiculously low if only the Cavalier+ items are purchasable.
because every time we have RIFTS side quest y’all have an item that we can buy or win from SOLO EVENT that allows us to pick the path we want…
but because the rewards are so damn juicy, we don’t get such an item this month???
I did think that for a second, but then I realised that obviously it would just mean a guaranteed 6* awakening for everyone that month. So I understand why they didn’t.
Personally, I’d rather have a chance at a 6* gem than for it to be less good rewards but I can choose them. A chance at a 6* gem is better than guaranteed 5k 6* shards for example in my mind.
Since there are 35 entries, and a 1% chance for a 6* gem that means it’s 0.99^35 = 0.7 chance to not get a 6* gem all 35 times, so about a 30% chance for a 6*gem next month. I’m happy with that, going from a 0% chance for a gem to 30 is good with me.
I don't think its additive like that. Each entry u have 1% chance for awakening gem. If rng was additive then premium hero crystal would have given you guaranteed 4 star after 50 pulls at least. Chance being 2.4% so according to your calculation after 50 pull its 50X2.4= 120% chance.
But it isn't. 2.4% means each pull chance is 2.4% doesn't matter you open 1000 or 100.
His math is correct. You’re confused about the math he did.
To know the odds of getting 1 or more gems, find the odds of getting 0. There’s a .99 chance each run fails. .99^35 is about .7. 1-.7= a .3 chance at a gem. Some rare occurrences have people with multiple gems within that 30%.
Are you guys serious with this? Not only do we have to figure out who these champions are and fight them every day just to enter the side quest that we have to do every day but now we can’t even practice fight them and have to find them somewhere in quests or a duel target? How much time do you think we have?
@Kabam Miike rewards for Cavalier+ looks extremely bad. We all know that you are trying to fix rewards for all levels as they are not sufficient as per the current game structure. Why don’t you add “ThroneBreaker” section to candy store ? This is extremely bad for end gamers.
Agree with just about all the criticism of this months SQ and candy store up above but came here to say this: Kabam got it backwards when it comes to rewarding higher tier players with more bang for their buck. Why do uncollected and cav pay for gold on a 1:10 ratio but lower tiers can get about a 1:18 or 1:17 ratio? Makes no sense to me.
If anybody ends up getting gold, make sure to buy it all out at the cheaper proven and conqueror rate first.
Are you guys serious with this? Not only do we have to figure out who these champions are and fight them every day just to enter the side quest that we have to do every day but now we can’t even practice fight them and have to find them somewhere in quests or a duel target? How much time do you think we have?
This is ridiculous. Kabam never could manage to get the Kabam created duel target accounts to work so that we could search for opponents easily and then gave up and removed them when they decided to do practice fights instead. Practice fights have their own issues where people who don't spend a lot of money or get lucky with crystals can't practice fight newer champs since they don't own them yet, and those are the ones we might want to practice against the most, but to give up on providing us duel targets and then make practice fights not count for a daily thing like this sucks.
Are you guys serious with this? Not only do we have to figure out who these champions are and fight them every day just to enter the side quest that we have to do every day but now we can’t even practice fight them and have to find them somewhere in quests or a duel target? How much time do you think we have?
This is ridiculous. Kabam never could manage to get the Kabam created duel target accounts to work so that we could search for opponents easily and then gave up and removed them when they decided to do practice fights instead. Practice fights have their own issues where people who don't spend a lot of money or get lucky with crystals can't practice fight newer champs since they don't own them yet, and those are the ones we might want to practice against the most, but to give up on providing us duel targets and then make practice fights not count for a daily thing like this sucks.
All of this. It’s one step forward, ten steps back. The worst SQs are the ones where you have to do one specific thing to be able to access it. Kabam really took all the things people have complained about with past SQs and mashed them all together.
The ONE thing that made Rifts not so bad was that one key you could obtain that allowed you to pick 1 path the whole month that let you select the reward of your choice, why is this the only time they don’t have that ??????????
Are you guys serious with this? Not only do we have to figure out who these champions are and fight them every day just to enter the side quest that we have to do every day but now we can’t even practice fight them and have to find them somewhere in quests or a duel target? How much time do you think we have?
Are you guys serious with this? Not only do we have to figure out who these champions are and fight them every day just to enter the side quest that we have to do every day but now we can’t even practice fight them and have to find them somewhere in quests or a duel target? How much time do you think we have?
This is ridiculous. Kabam never could manage to get the Kabam created duel target accounts to work so that we could search for opponents easily and then gave up and removed them when they decided to do practice fights instead. Practice fights have their own issues where people who don't spend a lot of money or get lucky with crystals can't practice fight newer champs since they don't own them yet, and those are the ones we might want to practice against the most, but to give up on providing us duel targets and then make practice fights not count for a daily thing like this sucks.
Don't sweat it, guys.
Seriously: the community will solve these and give daily Duel targets in like twenty minutes.
What logic have they used t4 basic cost of conquerer is lower than cavalier but more than uncollected. Similarly the cost of Gold and other items doesnt make sense.
Comments
The way probability works, is that your chance for an awakening gem from any single run stays the same. But if you do 100 runs, you have a higher chance overall to get a 6* gem from *at least 1* of the runs, than if you just did 1. Does that make sense?
It’s not the same chance overall to get at least 1 gem from a billion runs than just 1 is it? But as you said, you can’t just add up 1% until it’s 100% because then 100 pulls would guarantee a gem. So how do you work out what the overall chance of getting lucky at least one time from X runs?
It’s a 1% chance to get a 6* gem from 1 run, but what is the chance to get at least 1 6* gem from 100 runs?
The way to do this, is take the % chance of not getting a gem (in this case you have a 99% chance to not get a gem) and just say “what are the chances that in every single run I do, I hit that 99% and I don’t get a gem”
So if we use the example of 1 run. What are the chances that we hit the 99%? Well, 0.99^1 = 0.99 so that’s a 99% chance to not get a gem. It checks out. 1% chance to get a gem as we suspect.
Now for 2 runs, the chances of getting the 99% twice is 0.99 * 0.99 = 0.99^2 = 0.98
Which is a 98% chance that you’re going to get 0 awakening gems, leaving a 2% chance that you get either 1, or 2 awakening gems. (The chances for 2 is absurdly small though from just 2 runs - 0.01%)
But what if we have 100 runs?
Well what you’re working out is; what if in each of these 100 runs, I get the 99% each time. So that’s 0.99*0.99 …. 100 times. Which is 0.99^100 = 0.36. So that’s a 36% chance that if you ran it 100 times you’d get 0 gems.
So that means, that 1-0.36 = the chance that we don’t get 0 from running it 100 times. I.e. 64% is the chance that we get at least 1 gem from 100 runs.
That’s the % chance of 1 gem, 2 gems, 3 gems etc up to 100 gems all added up. But obviously they get obscenely small % chance, so the bulk of it is the chance of getting 1 gem.
This is what I mean by a 30% chance overall. When you do this calculation with 35 runs, you get a 70% chance that we get 0 gems, which means a 30% chance that you get 1, 2, 3 etc gems. And of that 30% chance, most of it is 1 gem.
TL:DR percentages are not additive nor did I say they were. You’re working out the chance of getting “not a gem” every single run, and then doing 1 minus that chance to have an overall % of at least 1 gem.
Correct me if I'm wrong in understanding how this sq works, and that's a total of 700,000 Candies for 35 runs on Cav+ difficulty (assuming we only get candy paths) and that total will enable us to purchase all the items from Cav+ Shop.
total 5 cav candy crystal from shop then 2 cav candy crystal weekly for 5 weeks from solo event.
No one likes the Ring of rifts, it's nice to see a 6* generic awakening Gem in legendary difficulty however with a 1 percent chance of getting it, also you can see where Kabam values items you have the same chance to get 1(one) 6* champion as you do to get a 6* awakening Gem which is silly.
Also as a thronebreaker free to play person who has also done my initial clear of 8.1 with NO r4 6* champions I find it silly how there is no thronebreaker or Paragon store listed to get r4 materials I find it silly how people in 8.1 are being grouped with people in 6.1 that's a 2 act difference, I am upset with this update please take ftp in consideration in the November update, thanks
50%-T5cc, gold, 6* stones, T5 basic
30%-6*AG, 6* hero shards
which means looks a lot nicer than 1-2% but requires a whole month of grinding
also just for fun 2.5% of players are going to get royally screwed over and pull candy 35/35 times they run a rift
To know the odds of getting 1 or more gems, find the odds of getting 0. There’s a .99 chance each run fails. .99^35 is about .7. 1-.7= a .3 chance at a gem. Some rare occurrences have people with multiple gems within that 30%.
think we have?
1. best rewards dependent on RNG
2. Per path costs energy
3. Can do only 1 difficulty
Kabam successfully Brought all the hated qualities of different sq in a single one. Well done kabam!!
If anybody ends up getting gold, make sure to buy it all out at the cheaper proven and conqueror rate first.
Seriously: the community will solve these and give daily Duel targets in like twenty minutes.
Just wait for a sticky thread to start. 😉
t4 basic cost of conquerer is lower than cavalier but more than uncollected.
Similarly the cost of Gold and other items doesnt make sense.