40 features 3 featured champs

Shiroihara · February 2023

DNA3000 said:

SkyLord7000 said:
No text in game explicitly states all champion pull chances are equal. Although they are.
Even if they wanted to state that in-game, there's no trivial way to do so succinctly in every language the game supports in an unambiguous way that would not be twistable by the conspiracy nuts.

They could, for example, state on the 6* featured "every champ listed drops evenly from the crystal" and that would be wrong, because every champ doesn't drop evenly. Every champ as an equal chance to drop, but by definition it is extremely unlikely that every champ would drop an identical number of times. If we say "every champ listed as an equal chance to drop from the crystal" the tin foil hat brigade could argue that Groot drops more often because there's two different Groots in the crystal, each with the same chance to drop. We would have to say something like "each of the twenty four champs listed in the crystal contents has a one in twenty four chance to drop per crystal opening, with each crystal opening generated independently and each crystal opening having identical drop mechanics for all players regardless of account status."

And then you would have to translate that unambiguously and without nuance errors into all the other languages besides English. And *then* the crystal crazies would resort to saying that since the Featured crystal contains this disclaimer and the other crystals don't, this proves the other crystals must be rigged, and that's why Kabam was deliberately avoiding placing the same disclaimer. So you would have to do this again and again and again, modifying the language to take into account rarity distributions (which are stated and not equal) and basic pool updates and featured odds and nexus crystals.

And even if we did that for all crystals, we would then have to counter the fact that bugs sometimes happen, and every time a crystal is bugged in such a way to not behave identically to the extremely lengthy pedantic crystal mechanics description, this would be ammunition to the deRNGed that since the crystal doesn't follow the description exactly all the time, the descriptions can't be trusted at all.

Or, we can dispense with all of that and just say crazy people are going to be crazy, and we just have to tolerate them and/or ignore them while we go on with our lives.

You went into a pretty crazy tirade yourself. Controlling how people interpret a sentence is impossible. It could be the most unambiguous set of words and you'll still find a confused individual.
For the majority, a clear statement would be enough. Originally, premiums were rigged, then Grandmaster crystals were rigged, etc. Then that died when app stores pushed for transparency on loot box based games.
I don't know why you would think it so complicated to make it explicit. They translate champion abilities and that in itself is a bloody feat.

Colinwhitworth69 · February 2023

Pandingo said:
Yup. Just sharing. Im done until the odds are legitimately displayed and numbers run by a streamer. This is disgusting. Naturally duped bb to 200 and cw to 100. This can't be legitimate.

LOL. You have a 1 in 24 chance each pull of getting any one champ.

I’ve pulled a lot of Black Bolts as well. It defies no probability law.

DemonicStalker · February 2023

I open 25...no tech...but i got Absorbing man x2, attuma x4, spot x4, mantis x1 and SMS x3... opened my 26th, got my 1st tech from feat... idoom...so what r the odds?

Squirrelguy · February 2023

I don't have enough time to go down the entire rabbit hole, but I'll bring up one of my favorite points to make in this situation. Beyond the fact that we have data that shows that crystal rigging is unlikely in the extreme (you can never actually be sure of a statement about the ideal rules/conditions of a population from any sample, you can just have incresing odds that the alternative is less likely, re my statistics professor), and that it would most definitely be illegal for Kabam to do so intentionally, or that they have no clear incentive to do so, there is also no clear way for them to be rigging all these crystals for every player so that they could get champions that they don't want. Some players already have the new featured champions from special deals or cav crystals, so just swinging the odds away from featured champs would actually be serving those players who actually really want Sunspot or never pulled a King Groot. Personally, I rarely open a featured crystal unless I also am missing a few of the non-featured champs, because then I sometimes get more excited about them than the new champs.

Big question is: if Kabam rigs any of the crystal drops, do they rig them on a baseline? Do they have incredibly intelligent AI that can predict for any account that a Skill AG is less desirable than a Mystic AG? Do they know that I secretly had been wanting 6* Scarlet Witch for years and just happened to mess up when she was in the first 5 6* featured crystals I opened? Could they account for the fact that I really wanted a Starlord dupe and instead gave me a Gala, Gorr, Scarlet Witch, Titania, and Mr Negative before him, even though those are better appreciated by the community and seen as better pulls?

Ortoun · February 2023

2 so far, I doom and mystic spidey.

DNA3000 · February 2023

Shiroihara said:

DNA3000 said:

SkyLord7000 said:
No text in game explicitly states all champion pull chances are equal. Although they are.
Even if they wanted to state that in-game, there's no trivial way to do so succinctly in every language the game supports in an unambiguous way that would not be twistable by the conspiracy nuts.

They could, for example, state on the 6* featured "every champ listed drops evenly from the crystal" and that would be wrong, because every champ doesn't drop evenly. Every champ as an equal chance to drop, but by definition it is extremely unlikely that every champ would drop an identical number of times. If we say "every champ listed as an equal chance to drop from the crystal" the tin foil hat brigade could argue that Groot drops more often because there's two different Groots in the crystal, each with the same chance to drop. We would have to say something like "each of the twenty four champs listed in the crystal contents has a one in twenty four chance to drop per crystal opening, with each crystal opening generated independently and each crystal opening having identical drop mechanics for all players regardless of account status."

And then you would have to translate that unambiguously and without nuance errors into all the other languages besides English. And *then* the crystal crazies would resort to saying that since the Featured crystal contains this disclaimer and the other crystals don't, this proves the other crystals must be rigged, and that's why Kabam was deliberately avoiding placing the same disclaimer. So you would have to do this again and again and again, modifying the language to take into account rarity distributions (which are stated and not equal) and basic pool updates and featured odds and nexus crystals.

And even if we did that for all crystals, we would then have to counter the fact that bugs sometimes happen, and every time a crystal is bugged in such a way to not behave identically to the extremely lengthy pedantic crystal mechanics description, this would be ammunition to the deRNGed that since the crystal doesn't follow the description exactly all the time, the descriptions can't be trusted at all.

Or, we can dispense with all of that and just say crazy people are going to be crazy, and we just have to tolerate them and/or ignore them while we go on with our lives.
You went into a pretty crazy tirade yourself. Controlling how people interpret a sentence is impossible. It could be the most unambiguous set of words and you'll still find a confused individual.
For the majority, a clear statement would be enough. Originally, premiums were rigged, then Grandmaster crystals were rigged, etc. Then that died when app stores pushed for transparency on loot box based games.
I don't know why you would think it so complicated to make it explicit. They translate champion abilities and that in itself is a bloody feat.

Because:

a) I've seen how this stuff gets twisted up on the forums. By people who don't understand statistics, randomness, programmatic lootbox implementations, but do seem to think Google is a brain enhancement tool.

b) I've seen this also happen when it comes to champion abilities. I've been fighting for better ability and mechanics documentation for years. It was literally one of the very first posts I made on the original forums. So I know first hand just how difficult it is to do this even when the subject matter is not controversial, much less when it is.

c) I've also seen this in other games. Lots and lots and lots of other games.

This is not my first rodeo. I've been fighting for better ability and mechanics documentation since forever, and I was one of the first to tackle the subject of crystal conspiracies, going all the way back to when they were far more accepted and commonplace. I'm a large part of the reason why you don't see nearly as many crystal rigging posts and why they are so much more ridiculed now than in the past. They didn't go away because Apple required odds publishing. Such ideas were on their way out because players like me put in the work to study and analyze crystals, and counter most of the illogical or lunatic conjectures about crystal RNG. So why do I think this would be difficult? Because I've been doing it myself for long enough to be the resident expert.

DNA3000 · February 2023

Squirrelguy said:
Big question is: if Kabam rigs any of the crystal drops, do they rig them on a baseline? Do they have incredibly intelligent AI that can predict for any account that a Skill AG is less desirable than a Mystic AG? Do they know that I secretly had been wanting 6* Scarlet Witch for years and just happened to mess up when she was in the first 5 6* featured crystals I opened? Could they account for the fact that I really wanted a Starlord dupe and instead gave me a Gala, Gorr, Scarlet Witch, Titania, and Mr Negative before him, even though those are better appreciated by the community and seen as better pulls?

Bigger question. Kabam can't keep the crystal vault displaying everything in the same order from build to build. What is the probability that Kabam could rig crystals to drop certain champs at higher and lower rates and not have the order of those champs get screwed up and completely reverse their intentions?

They can't display this crystal here and that crystal there predictably, but they can make sure this champ drops often and that champ drops rarely? Consistently?

I don't think so. That's not how game engines work. Hercules is not hard coded into the crystal drop code. Hercules is just a number. And the crystal designers would have to make sure that champion 137 drops more often while Groot, champion 48, drops less often, and they have to make sure Hercules is champion 137 and Groot is champion 48 in the drop tables every single build without fail, or they will suddenly start handing out god tier champs at super high rates to everyone.

There's a reason casinos use the best random number generators they can in slot machines. Because you can't beat a random number generator. Every system can be beat, but randomness cannot be beat. Its the one slot machine system they don't have to worry about players finding a way to exploit.

Crystals are random for the same reason. Kabam doesn't care if I get Quicksilver or not. Kabam no more cares about me as a single player than the Bellagio casino cares about me as an individual player on their casino floor. They only care about averages across millions of players, just like Kabam only cares about averages across their players. There's absolutely no reason not to make the crystals random, because they just don't care what you get from your crystal. They only care what all the players combined get. And if they want us to get fewer champions, they will just design the reward economy to give us less stuff.

GroundedWisdom · February 2023

DNA3000 said:

Shiroihara said:

DNA3000 said:

SkyLord7000 said:
No text in game explicitly states all champion pull chances are equal. Although they are.
Even if they wanted to state that in-game, there's no trivial way to do so succinctly in every language the game supports in an unambiguous way that would not be twistable by the conspiracy nuts.

They could, for example, state on the 6* featured "every champ listed drops evenly from the crystal" and that would be wrong, because every champ doesn't drop evenly. Every champ as an equal chance to drop, but by definition it is extremely unlikely that every champ would drop an identical number of times. If we say "every champ listed as an equal chance to drop from the crystal" the tin foil hat brigade could argue that Groot drops more often because there's two different Groots in the crystal, each with the same chance to drop. We would have to say something like "each of the twenty four champs listed in the crystal contents has a one in twenty four chance to drop per crystal opening, with each crystal opening generated independently and each crystal opening having identical drop mechanics for all players regardless of account status."

And then you would have to translate that unambiguously and without nuance errors into all the other languages besides English. And *then* the crystal crazies would resort to saying that since the Featured crystal contains this disclaimer and the other crystals don't, this proves the other crystals must be rigged, and that's why Kabam was deliberately avoiding placing the same disclaimer. So you would have to do this again and again and again, modifying the language to take into account rarity distributions (which are stated and not equal) and basic pool updates and featured odds and nexus crystals.

And even if we did that for all crystals, we would then have to counter the fact that bugs sometimes happen, and every time a crystal is bugged in such a way to not behave identically to the extremely lengthy pedantic crystal mechanics description, this would be ammunition to the deRNGed that since the crystal doesn't follow the description exactly all the time, the descriptions can't be trusted at all.

Or, we can dispense with all of that and just say crazy people are going to be crazy, and we just have to tolerate them and/or ignore them while we go on with our lives.
You went into a pretty crazy tirade yourself. Controlling how people interpret a sentence is impossible. It could be the most unambiguous set of words and you'll still find a confused individual.
For the majority, a clear statement would be enough. Originally, premiums were rigged, then Grandmaster crystals were rigged, etc. Then that died when app stores pushed for transparency on loot box based games.
I don't know why you would think it so complicated to make it explicit. They translate champion abilities and that in itself is a bloody feat.
Because:

a) I've seen how this stuff gets twisted up on the forums. By people who don't understand statistics, randomness, programmatic lootbox implementations, but do seem to think Google is a brain enhancement tool.

b) I've seen this also happen when it comes to champion abilities. I've been fighting for better ability and mechanics documentation for years. It was literally one of the very first posts I made on the original forums. So I know first hand just how difficult it is to do this even when the subject matter is not controversial, much less when it is.

c) I've also seen this in other games. Lots and lots and lots of other games.

This is not my first rodeo. I've been fighting for better ability and mechanics documentation since forever, and I was one of the first to tackle the subject of crystal conspiracies, going all the way back to when they were far more accepted and commonplace. I'm a large part of the reason why you don't see nearly as many crystal rigging posts and why they are so much more ridiculed now than in the past. They didn't go away because Apple required odds publishing. Such ideas were on their way out because players like me put in the work to study and analyze crystals, and counter most of the illogical or lunatic conjectures about crystal RNG. So why do I think this would be difficult? Because I've been doing it myself for long enough to be the resident expert.

You were doing data collection on the results much longer than the Drop Rates were posted. I remember.

SkyLord7000 · February 2023

Coming back here to defend my previous statement.

It’s obvious champions pull chances do NOT vary ever in MCoC and Kabam has explicitly stated that this is the case.

However, in game nothing tells you that. There are ways of saying champions pull chances don’t vary in game and it probably can be confusing to those that don’t visit the forums or ask support directly.

Captain_Spasm · February 2023

I’ve opened 7 and got 5 of the featured champs. Just dumb luck.

Omedenn · February 2023

My featured champ drop rate is really good this time

PirateJon · February 2023

I don’t think it’s random. I opened about 50 and still didn’t get the 2 featureds I needed.

TyEdge · February 2023

Real talk: this is a .00086 chance to occur on 40 pulls…less than 1/1000. It’s about the same as opening 30 Cav crystals in a row (the bad ones, not featured) without a single 5 or 6-star.

I don’t say all that to be conspiratorial. I say that in hopes we can appreciate that this is truly a wretched beat.

40 features 3 featured champs

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